2022 Stock Market Bottom Prediction

Let us have a fun game. Predict the bottom and average price for a set of stock symbols most frequently discussed in this forum. We can revisit end of the year or early next year to see how good or bad we were. Purely for fun and entertainment. If you have some insights to share on how you arrived at your prediction, will be great.

Let me start with mine:

S&P 500 avg: ~3300, bottom: 2700
TSLA avg: ~550 bottom: 398
AMZN avg: ~100 bottom: 82
MSFT avg: ~220 bottom: 188
GOOGL avg: ~1800 bottom: 1500
NVDA avg: ~120 bottom: < 100

How did I predict? Eye-balled the price over 5 year period, and assigned a linear trend for macro. Nothing scientific / educated – more of a guess.


Best to get to the bottom ASAP. Seems like Powel’s plan. I hope he does a better job than Volker. 1980-1981 was a bear. The oil shock was brutal, plus 18% interest rates. I survived. But it wasn’t pretty. RE did surprisingly well. Stocks finally recovered in 1982 and had a bull run after 15 years of stagnation.

The bottom is near. Crypto is dead. Long live the King Dollar. Good time for European vacation. The Euro is thrash

USD would be the main reserve currency for at least 40+ years (good enough for me :slight_smile: ).

Even if there are more than 1 superpower ascends, USA would still be a superpower for the foreseeable future.

All the gloom and doom prediction assume for one to win, the other has to lose. I think there would be many winners.

Population and economic well-being of humans have risen tremendously because of coopetition. I don’t see that changing.

Stock market: Could have bottomed but not sure. But sure is in bottoming :slight_smile: process. Also, not sure how long would the bottoming process last.

Need to wait for the key events end of this month. Bottom will be once we have inflation relief and FED takes their pedal off the interest rate hikes. Expect severe punishment for companies with not so good earnings, even a spectacular earning will only have a slight increase until we have clarity.

One other event to watch is the I-bond expiration – lot of money has gone into these bonds and once we have some recovery in stocks, expect a small spike once I-bond rates goes down & money flows back to stocks

My favorite meme stock canary in the mine, CGC. Down from 52 to 2.5. The pot heads, spacs. crapto and ipos have been slaughtered. The bottom is near.

Interestingly we have reached the average part of the prediction below… :slight_smile:


Euro below the dollar. Crypto is Crapto. Growth stocks are pariahs
SP 500… 3000?
Probably most stocks go to 2018 lows.
RE drops 20%… some outliers 50%

What country will go bankrupt?
Argentina Turkey Russia Greece Thailand… I have no idea.

3000 is definitely possible based on what I see… may hit there in Nov / first week of Dec, before starting pullback after Dec 13th… based on my original prediction, we may hit as low as 2700

Yes, this is possible, but anything between 2700 and 2900 is possible bottom before Jan 2023 (guessing the time).

My Range is 2850 for SPX.

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TSLA will hit 420. Not sure about anything else. Balls