70k Price drop in Milpitas!

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Yes but 2008 was not a normal recession. I don’t expect a 2008 like recession next whenever it happens(IMO not in the next 12 months, of course anything can happen). 2000-2001 recession effect from the graph seems fairly benign in comparison across all areas & not just Cupertino.

Yes, what you say might happen. But I wouldn’t bet on it because, unlike 2008 the buyers now are of higher quality(income verification,higher credit scores, longer salary history) & have much more equity in their house. So, panicky house sales with people walking away under the similar circumstances like last time might not happen. It might happen due to some other reason this time(different from a financial/banking/mortgage crisis) my thought is the scale of that whenever that happens will be much smaller.

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Even Yellen Keep on telling the same, but they won’t do it in 2016.

If someone listened Yellen Testimony to Congress, the last two quarters GDP growth is well below 2015 and job addition is very poor. Looks like companies profitability declined and job hiring stopped. This is an aftermath of 0.25% increase in Dec 2015.

With current status, my guesstimate is FED CAN NOT RAISE 0.25% for next one year. If they do, we go to correction territory for which FED may not have sufficient backup.

News papers will not reflect correct news as they need issues to improve their ratings just like they headline TRUMP always !!!

This 2.5 hours testimony. If someone has time, go through complete Q & A.

http://www.c-span.org/video/?410614-1/janet-yellen-testifies-us-monetary-policy-economy

FED will not increase rate until Feb 2017…Considering election year.

But, our bay area is affected by negative growth of Tech(=3) and BioTech(=2) industries ( next to Oil/energy=1 )

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:slight_smile: We will know by the end of this year.

I was hoping the $250K base salary Data Scientists can predict this. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: Data Science needs more research.

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Thanks for the response sfdragonboy!

Yes thinking of buying something for investment. But then again, I bought one for primary home last year. Maybe I should wait. Buying 2 at the top might be a bad idea?

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srinivas,

Well, keep your eyes and ears open. I take it you are ready to go and have been pre-approved for an actual loan? You do realize investment purchases require more down typically than a primary residence right?

Because of the timing right now, I would imagine everyone is looking so it might be even more competitive and expensive. Perhaps you wait until after school starts and/or maybe end of the year when things can slow down and then assess whether you still want to buy at that point. In the meantime, do your research and know your target neighborhoods like the back of your hand. I have driven to areas and actually talked to folks watering their lawns to get a sense of the area. I have also driven to areas at night to see if any extra-curricular activity is going on. Since investment, be up to date on current rents for identical properties. Project your cash flow position. Are you going to be fine as opposed to being tapped out on cash? What if an emergency happens, do you have enough funds after your buy to handle most things? Keep in mind the dreaded property tax bills too. See you at the next open house… :grin:

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Just listen to Yellen answers, easy to derive the details.

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Brand new? How big? How much rent do you think you can get easily (go conservative, now) for it? Assuming you got that, and taking into consideration any owner paid bills, insurance and property taxes, what is your cash flow position like? Can you survive fine without that rent money for a few months?

As a test, go look on Craigslist for something comparable and maybe even call the owner of one and pretend to be an interested party. Feel him/her out to see if there is any indication that a lot or few folks are interested. If some listings are lingering out there, probably rents are too high or the areas suck and should not be used as your benchmark.

Obviously, the school situation needs more investigating. Are the scores at least rising? Check local crime ratings too. I would go to that area on a weekend and talk to folks who look like they have families there and ask them about the schools. When I go through a neighborhood, either day or night I take it all in. I walk the neighborhood completely for blocks around the target area and may even ask someone, hey, I am thinking of buying here, what do you think? People are usually pretty chatty if you are nice. Are there good or negative vibes happening?

Definitely check recent sales in the area and determine where your property stands in relation. Should it be better or worse due to X…and so on. Keep track of the recently sold ones, and as you drive through maybe you get lucky and see the actual owner working on his house. Start up a conversation. Ask good questions. You may get some insight on the quality of folks moving in there. Obviously, if a bunch of Sec 8 renters keep popping up, keep driving…:grin: Good luck!!!

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@sfdragonboy You are the resident mentor for me. Thanks!

3 bed 3 bath 1712 SQFT SFH brand new. 3 storied but all beds in 2nd floor. Extra loft in 3rd floor. Nice floorplan when compared with all new construction.

Any idea about Newark in general though?

small city 60k population i think, so easy for the makeover, like Ardenwood area in fremont, over time could catch up with easy access to dumbarton. Like you have been saying need asians to move in troves for the school district to become better.

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Wow! Ready to buy in an expensive neighborhood so fast? Strike Lotto?

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Ok, let’s not go overboard RealEstatebull. I don’t need the extra pressure. I have just been fortunate to have been astute/aware enough to make good decisive calls on some real estate deals that crossed my way and they have worked out well so far. That recent buy of mine in Fremont was a killer!!! Under 500k for a 3/1 SFH with a large lot. Even the wife liked it and she don’t like anything…:grin:

Again, I don’t know Newark that much to really advise you, my friend. It obviously is just an ok area currently but again is it primed to go up as everyone is priced out of the various areas either on the west side or east side of the bay? 750ish for 1700 sq ft brand new doesn’t sound too bad at all. Again, I would check to see what is the going rate on a sq ft basis in Newark right now. Of course, take into consideration it is brand new construction.

Who is the developer? I might check up on that developer to see history and reputation. Is there any HOA? You know how I hate HOA.

Just a personal thing, but, I am kind of scared to rent a BRAND NEW home to the masses out there. I have only done granted remodeled places but not some new place where you are going to just let some stranger have at it. If you are cool with it, I am cool with it.

Again, do some calcuations and determine rent rates for that kind of place and figure out your cash flow after all expenses. You need to be able to live comfortably if cash flow is negative for awhile right?

Oh, is Newark a rent control city? I don’t know. That might be very important.

Since it is a new development, is that a set listing price so it is yours if you want it? No bidding process or competition?

One thing I don’t really like, as I get older, is the 3 storied houses. It sounds lovely but climbing stairs can be a b*tch.

Ok since the school thing is a big factor here, try to really do some research on that in terms of school ratings as to how they are going back 5 years to current. I want to see some incremental but consistent progress, def not going lower ok? Of course, focus on the schools that your particular home would feed to but also be aware of any situations with the other schools (good or bad). If there are some decent schools in the city, it can only help.

Let’s see what you are able to determine.

sfdragonboy

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I hope it aint the stock market cuz it is tanking faster than the Titantic, baby!!!