70k Price drop in Milpitas!

I saw this home in person and spoke with the Listing agent yesterday, she advised/cautioned me about flipping in this market, in her words: “tough market, dont do if you are not experienced”. Boom, next day I see this price drop!

Wonder whats going on. Very nice quality remodel in my opinion.

Purchased: 917k
remodel, hardmoney, holding cost: atleast 50 to 75K?
List: 998
Sold: 1.025 (I’m guessing)

What is the margin? If any??


Man, my big bro bought one of his first homes in Milpitas many moons ago. New development, camped out for a few nights, alternating with wife as he worked during the day, for first dibs on a primo 4 bd detached home for under 200k. Bang, 1M today easily. That’s how you make money in real estate, folks, you suck it up and do the grunt work that others don’t want to do…

15-20 years ago? under 200k in a new development? wow!

Yeah, probably more like 25 yrs ago I believe. Man, we getting old.

In a cul de sac no less. Had to camp out with others to get first crack at these homes. Who would have thunk it back then, cuz Milpitas was not up there like now. Granted, it was close enough already to tech companies so anyone with some foresight would have bought there.

totally agree. I heard people calling SMELLpitas and the ARM PIT of the bay area. Think how the intersection of 237 and 880 is similar to a guy’s arm pit :). Thats what Im told, but look at now.

Milpitas is still affordable for people on W2 income like me and close to tech companies, just need to get the SJ city move the dixon landing garbadge infill outta there :slight_smile:

On the other hand this so-so home, small 1100 sft one, 5 rated ele school, unfinished remodel, not ready to move in, busy street goes 70k over asking.


So I think milpitas is super hot under 800k but slowing above 900k.

I keep hearing that but I have not smelled a thing in the 15 years I ate at the Ranch 99 mall. Where the heck is the smell?

Wow, you’re right I remember the smell coming from the garbage dump. I remember going there often when I was helping my bro work the landscaping of his new home.

One would think at some point the garbage dump would be filled and would have to stop.

Another area back in the day was East Palo Alto, just when it was turning was probably the window of opportunity. Again, you are located with the tech companies so sooner or later it has to turn. If I recall, it wasn’t really a situation where you have housing projects that simply won’t go away. It was more SFHs that had problem occupants and once they eventually left, boom!

Coming back to original post:

Is milpitas slowing down? Any 1st hand experiences?

My friend was telling his neighborhood homes stays more than 45 days around 1.1M level in Milpitas. He bought exatly similar home during 2011 for 725k.

My criteria for buying a home for my living is simple.

Should be able to pay for mortgage+ living costs+tiny saving on ONE salary .

I think by this criteria most Bay Area homes are becoming unaffordable.

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Agree about one salary. Never know when you will get laid off, so if you shoot for one salary you are better off.

If I buy now, Im worried about buying at the top. I’m ready for a downpayment now after 1 year of savings or so.

I would happily take a 20% price cut + 100% increase in interest rate. I know I will get a chance to refinance at a low rate in the future. I cant change the price.

If fed keeps interest rates like this, Bay area is becoming unaffordable with 10% YOY increase.

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I know the price cut was severe in 2008. However, what I have read on the redfin forum & this forum is that in the dot com recession of 2000-2001 there was not much of a price cut. By that criteria even in another normal recession a 20% cut might not happen.

Agree. Good schools like cupertino area only saw 8% downside but 100% upside after recession.

10% cut is in order I think in decent/avg school districts. I am ok to buy at late 2014 price. Since then it seems like limited inventory and emotional buyers pushing the prices higher.

I am hearing more inventory now and I think that will put some price pressure. ??

I had to become one of those buyers last year. Bought almost 12% above listing. :cry: Basically within the same neighborhoods good houses(well maintained, no termites, reasonably updated, all 3 good schools, away from busy roads/road noise, cul de sac, walking distance to park,commute 20 mins to major work locations in normal traffic & 40 minutes in busy traffic etc etc ) go into a bidding war.
Again, I wasn’t emotional, it’s just I had to compete with other emotional buyers. :stuck_out_tongue:

I am hearing more inventory now and I think that will put some price pressure. ??

Number of sales are down for sure. Don’t have comparative data on inventory.

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With someforesight, could you suggest some areas now for me?


There is so much to consider, for example, is this for strictly investment or for personal living? A lot of posters here value strong school districts (granted they have kids) in generally speaking expensive cities. Yes, great, but I would like to have dated Cindy Crawford in my other life too. Realistically, not everyone can afford a $2M home.

In the other thread, I think you hit it right on about Union City as a potential area again if you follow the theory that water levels out eventually. The addage, “buy low, sell high” is always in play. If Union City is a direct shot from PA across a bridge “water” may flow towards that way especially if Uber is planning to expand its PA presence as reported. Hey, people have to live somewhere, it mind as well be Union City. It is not rocket science. Buy in the cheaper areas that truly do have potential though. I mean, if an area has something that is NOT ever going to change in the foreseeable future, like a low income housing project across the street or a freeway behind you, you probably want to avoid it.

There is always the misconception that once you buy something that it is going to be it forever. Of course, not. You could buy a property, fix it up and sell it and trade up to a bigger place. People have been doing this for a long time. I know people with kids who buy, remodel, take their 500k capital gain free profits and throw it into the new place. It is worth repeating: it is not where you start but where you end up. Good luck!!!

@sfdragonboy Newark,CA a potential area, 10 mins away from FB hQ and all pricey homes across dumbarton, menlo park, RWC, palo alto, etc.

Schools are bad. A new 550 home property is coming right off dumbarton on thornton by william lyon.

SFH brand new for 750ish. Worth it?

Expectation is now probably only 1 more rate increase this year.

That’s my feeling too, no choice by have to be the greatest fool, estimate the highest bidder’s price, throw in a Lexus.

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