The combination of widespread ride-sharing and self-driving cars will reshape housing in 8 significant ways:
Prime real estate will be unlocked for new home construction (parking lots, auto dealerships, gas stations).
Outlying drive-until-you-qualify housing markets will eventually reemerge once the majority of core infill markets have repurposed their prime real estate.
Urban employment should continue rising as prime real estate is repurposed for housing, allowing more people to live closer to city centers.
Density will increase, with the days of wide streets, massive driveways, and two-/three-car garages a thing of the past.
Construction costs will decline as transportation costs plummet for moving building products from manufacturing facilities/warehouses to new home construction sites.
Fewer home sales will occur, as the elderly will be able to stay in their existing home long after losing their driving rights.
Assisted-living facility demand will be less than most people expect.
Repair and remodeling will flourish due to seniors remodeling their homes to age in place. Millions of garages will also be converted to fully functioning livable space.
We’re further from driverless cars than people think. Then it’ll take a long time before most Americans have one. It’ll be available on luxury brands for years before it hits mainstream brands. People are keeping their cars for 10+ years now, and many people never own a new car. It’ll take decades for even a majority of cars on the road to be self-driving.
Oh, and I forgot the biggest hurdle: government regulation. There’s no way you’re going to see fully autonomous cars without tons of regulation being passed first. All that will require even more testing. A huge amount of the time required to design a car is all the crash testing required.
Half of that list is BS. I’m honestly surprised you posted it.
First, its presumptuous to assume that you can get rid of parking lots. That assumes car sharing, not self-driving cars. And I really doubt that is in the future at all any more than we already have it (Uber/Zipcar).
Second, there’s no reason to believe that you will be able to decrease wide streets. Cars aren’t necessarily going to get any smaller. Sure, maybe you can convince people who now buy SUVs to armor themselves to buy minis, but people with families will still want minivans to carry their kids, guests, and gear.
Assisted living facility demand will be less? Why?? A self-driving car has nothing to do with being in assisted living. People go to assisted living not because they can’t drive, but because they can’t bathe, can’t cook, want companionship, need a full-time medical staff, or are likely to leave the teapot on the stove and burn the house down. Robot living assistants and self-cooking meals are the thing that would change assisted living membership. Self-driving car? Not.
Construction costs will decline? Why? Is the driver the major cost of moving stuff from warehouses to construction sites or is gas? Is transportation the major cost of materials? I mean, maybe I could buy that, but someone would have to throw me some real numbers.
Cars may not get smaller, but if we can either get rid of parking spaces or just have them on one side of street instead of two, we can make the streets narrower. Yes, many of these assumptions hinge on we will get an automatic fleet of Uber/Lyft cars. If we can hail a self-driving Uber car anytime anywhere for cheap I doubt many will forego their cars.
Builders of condos today have to factor a lot of parking spaces. I posted something a while back how much parking requirement increase building costs.
Before you debate about flying cars, self driving cars, and whatnot, I believe the first issue is the new era of electric cars or so called EVs. USPS, DHL, trucks, you name the company or manufacturing company they are dedicated to build or use EVs.
You will be awaken not by the old noise from the garbage truck, but for the unusual noise of only the garbage can’s noise. You will see then EVs around in a couple of years like never seen.
That brings the question if our electric grid can support the demand. The Mount Diablo nuclear plant is scheduled to be shut down in 2025. The only source of energy capable of replacing nuclear plants is solar.
That’s why you see companies right and left getting into that business due to rebates and incentives given to the consumer. PG&E is ramping up the implementation of solar panels because they are forced to produce I don’t know the % for the future, that is, they have to have stored energy to comply. Big time problem because as we know, some times our grid goes down due to demand. Electric vehicles coming to the market as never seen will make an impact on how we take care of the electricity problem.
Can you imagine being on a 105Âş as 2 weeks ago? And no air conditioning because the grid went Kaput?
Currently, parking lots are all in prime of the prime locations, like my house and my office building in downtown SF. The reason is obvious. I have to be able to walk to get my car. The ability that my car can park itself anywhere is a great feature. I don’t need to use any ride sharing service and I still love my own car, but they will park themselves nice and far. Parking lots in prime locations is not needed anymore.
over the years, I know at least 3 elder people in my church in their late 80’s or 90’s insisted to live by themselves in their lifetime lovely home, all until they cannot no longer drive. Losing the privilege to drive is one of the event causing biggest drop in quality of their life. In all those cases, once they could not drive, their home would soon be up for sale is what I observed again and again.
All in all, I think it is a great post from @manch as usual.
The guy with the pistol is assuming the guy with the camera doesn’t have an AK 47… Dangerous assumption…lol
My wife is in Moscow for a month… I won’t go… Driving there is scary… Accidents everywhere. They even drive on the sidewalk… Will speed up to run you over…crazyness. Got to love those Russian YouTube car crash videos
