AI's Investment Implications


Down more with the market i say.


I am afraid that may be the case. We are in correction country now.


I win the bet. I predicted a correction…


3% is not a correction now. Not yet. Maybe. You might win when most of us cry though :slight_smile:


Personally I hope it doesn’t happen but markets need healthy ups and downs otherwise you get huge volatility and big crashes like bitcoin


However there was nothing healthy about the 2001 and 2008 crashes… and amazingly it’s been 8 years with no crash! :laughing:


2001 was no big deal for real estate… huge for the NASDAQ. Barely recovered by now if you count in 17 years of inflation.


We are in the middle of a huge secular bull market. My guess is that we are no where near the end. The 4th inning if you will. But there will be a few corrections along the way. The cycling out of tech last December was quite painful for me. And before that in late 2016 there was another tech selloff. Back in 2015 there was a big correction. S&P sank 15% peak to trough.

The secular uptrend is still intact. I am optimistic. Short term there may some more pain next week.


Upgrading Micron

This morning, not one but two separate analysts are out upgrading Micron stock, with KeyBanc (one of Wall Street’s very best analysts) rating the stock overweight, and Needham & Company (itself no slouch, ranked in the top 10% of analysts we track) assigning it a strong buy rating.

What’s really shocking about this pair of upgrades for Micron is that the stock has gone up so much already. Even after yesterday’s 3.5% slip in stock price, Micron shares remain up nearly 66% over the past year, and have tripled the performance of the S&P 500. Despite this run-up, KeyBanc is predicting that Micron has a further 34% to run before it hits the banker’s target price of $53 a share. Needham is even more optimistic, predicting Micron stock could nearly double off today’s prices, and hit $76 within a year.

What Micron said

What makes these analysts so optimistic about Micron? With its fiscal second quarter 2018 more than half over, Micron preannounced strong quarterly earnings yesterday, predicting that by the time it closes the books on March 1, it will have booked anywhere from $7.2 billion to $7.35 billion in sales, compared to previous guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.2 billion.

Earnings on these growing sales should amount to at least $2.70 per diluted share, and perhaps as much as $2.75 – at least $0.19 more profit than previously promised.

What the analysts said about that

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra promised to share even “more details in our fiscal second quarter earnings conference call,” which is scheduled for March 22, 2018. But the numbers Micron has revealed already look pretty good.

As Needham points out, Micron is now on track to report back-to-back quarters indicating “$10+ annualized earnings” – a number that if it proves out, would value Micron’s $39 stock at less than four times earnings. Needham calls this a “trough multiple” and says it’s inappropriate “on peak earnings” at Micron. The analyst further argues that based on Micron’s guidance, it appears “Micron has room to expand NAND gross margins despite a declining pricing environment. Furthermore, we believe whatever excess NAND supply in the market will be absorbed by demand for client and data center SSDs,” keeping Micron’s pricing power intact and enabling further profits.




something like TPU?


Don’t know. Seems like I need to buy subscriptions to the information. They are doing some good reporting.




Why Micron Technology, Inc. Stock Is a Buy Again


Big picture update,

Own no underlying, holding 20 calls :slight_smile: for a potential breakout to $55 :sunglasses:


That one is stubbornly not breaking out. I honestly don’t get it.


You want to buy the breakout like manch? Rather than do like me take some risk to bet on a breakout :roll_eyes:


It’s on my radar but no position yet. If it does breakout, there will be plenty of money to be made afterwards. There’s no need to be a hero and try timing the breakout. Especially since this is one I’d probably play with options so timing matters.


When and what strike?