AI's Investment Implications

This is with what’s available today. Already 50% productivity gain.

China will be forever left behind.


Like a good old Soviet joke.


GPT 4 just came out today. It got high scores on many of the standardized tests but still struggles with AP Calculus for some reason.

1 Like

1 Like

This is way more important long term than any of the bank runs stuff happening right now.

Microsoft is really aggressive in its AI strategy. It has integrated chatGPT in its entire Office suite. Huge deflationary potential here. Companies don’t need as many office workers as one can do the job of two or three people. Maybe companies can even outsource more as language barriers don’t really exist anymore in the era of chatGPT.

Clear winners so far in the AI race: Nvidia and Microsoft. Reminds me of Wintel, Intel + Microsoft, in the old PC era.

1 Like

Adobe is joining the AI race


Is this from Reddit?

Don’t know. Just grabbed it off Twitter. So don’t bet on it.

On the other hand the Google chat bot is absolutely garbage. If they don’t have their pants on fire inside Google then it’s doomed. Couldn’t grasp the danger when it’s staring in its face. So I hope they are panicking in there and strategizing its comeback.

1 Like

OpenAI Plugins Transform ChatGPT Into An App Platform

ARK Invest_Illustration_Brett Winton_Final_Circle 400 px44x44

By Brett Winton
Chief Futurist

Last week, on the heels of its GPT4 release, OpenAI announced a product extension for ChatGPT allowing the chatbot to interact with external data and services. With plugins, ChatGPT now can search for real-time information on the web, order groceries from DoorDash, and book flights, hotels, or rental cars on Kayak. In short, plugins have transformed ChatGPT into an app platform that could challenge the iPhone.

In our view, this innovation will expand the economic potential of ChatGPT and pose a competitive threat to both Google search and Apple’s App Store monopoly. Google’s revenue depends on consumers and businesses searching and moving from website to website. With plugins, ChatGPT inverts the process: consumers and businesses stick with ChatGPT as it discovers and presents options. Why bounce from site to site when a single resource can respond in natural language to the nuances of vacation plans with price comparisons, book dinner reservations, and surface that perfect out-of-the-way beach condo?

Well and good for the vacationing consumer—but not so good for Google search traffic. Measured against ChatGPT and Bing, Google already is bleeding traffic share, as shown below. With plugins, that trend seems likely to continue, if not accelerate.

1 Like

[continue from above]

ChatGPT could threaten Apple’s App Store. Who needs a special purpose app when a general-purpose interface can provide answers across the open web? In other words, the language model becomes the operating system, giving companies a way to avoid Apple’s 15-30% platform tax.

In our view, tech’s center of gravity is shifting dramatically. Language models are performing super-exponentially, leaving consumer-facing mega-cap tech companies flat-footed. Assuming aggressive investment and cost declines averaging ~3X per year, we could see the capability of artificial intelligence (AI)1 systems increase two-hundred-fold over the next three years, as shown below. This progress would be equivalent to the gain in iPhone performance over the 16 years since it launched in 2007.

1 Like

Bing was <2% market share? Wow…

Do they have any basis for cost declines averaging 3x/yr? I make make cool graphs based on completely unrealistic expectations too. This is hitting 3-D printing or drone level of hype.


ARK’s cost forecast is usually garbage. I wouldn’t put too much weight into it. Probably a mixture of Moore’s law scaling in hardware plus some software optimization. 3x per year sounds wide off the mark.

1 Like


I was looking at the iPhone display, didn’t see any app call ChatGPT… hmm…

This is the Midjourney prompt used:

A Chinese 20-year-old Woman, looking like Audrey Hepburn, Black hair, standing on 2023 Tokyo street, hyper realistic portrait photography, pale skin, dress, wide shot, natural lighting, kodak portra 800, 105 mm f1. 8, 32k --ar 16:9 --v 5 --s 750 --q 2

To generate this set of pictures:

It still takes some artist imagination and creativity. Humans need to think one level higher to use AI well. Painting is no longer limited to people who can use their eyes and hands well.

1 Like

Now AI has the capability of replacing humans in doing digital and 2D stuffs. Wait for AI to be able to generate 3D stuffs. Then we have to wonder…

Can use ChatGPT to design an EV/ EV manufacturing factory better than a Tesla car/ Gigafactory?

He needs to feel the love of millions of fans telling him he’s a genius.