AI's Investment Implications

Actually the biggest news on AI right now is Baidu’s robotaxi rollout in Wuhan (yes, that Wuhan) China. 1000 cars roaming the city. With a population of 8.7m Wuhan has more people than all of Bay Area combined.

Robotaxi tech has already proven to work at scale. Waymo has been offering robotaxi service in SF for years now. So I am confused why Musk keeps referring to robotaxi in future tense. Yes, you need Lidar and HD maps. No vision only end-to-end yadi yada.

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Jensen on why he’s not worried he will Sherlock Nvidia’s current chips by pre-announcing future ones:

If you’re 5% into the build-out versus if you’re 95% into the build-out, you’re going to feel very differently. And because you’re only 5% into the build-out anyhow, you build as fast as you can.

[…] we want our customers to see our road map for as far as they like, but they’re early in their build-out anyways and so they have to just keep on building, okay? And so there’s going to be a whole bunch of chips coming at them, and they just got to keep on building and just, if you will, performance-average your way into it.

So that’s the smart thing to do. They need to make money today. They want to save money today. And time is really, really valuable to them.

Let me give you an example of time being really valuable, why this idea of standing up a data center instantaneously is so valuable and getting this thing called time-to-train is so valuable. The reason for that is because the next company who reaches the next major plateau gets to announce a groundbreaking AI. And the second one after that gets to announce something that’s 0.3% better.

And so the question is, do you want to be repeatedly the company delivering groundbreaking AI or the company delivering 0.3% better? And that’s the reason why this race, as in all technology races, the race is so important. […]

The difference between time-to-train that is 3 months earlier just to get it done, in order to get time-to-train on 3 months’ project, getting started 3 months earlier is everything.

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Jensen scaring hyperscalars to FOMO.