AI's Investment Implications

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Technicals know the fundamentals in advance or people who know the fundamentals in advance use technicals to hide their insider info.

The rush to build AI infrastructure continues unabated?

Disclosure: Didn’t sell any NVDA shares, riding the ups and downs.

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https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-buy-back-employee-shares-61-5-billion-valuation

The Nasdaq’s trajectory following the release of ChatGPT continues to mirror the post-Netscape pattern, with similar gains through the first 617 days.

2 more years of AI bubble?

:heart_eyes:

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Is NVDA run up to earning then sell the earning news or improved fundamentals?

Edit: After above comment,

I am having second thoughts on my earlier expectation of software engineering job market. I used to think we will need more SWE, keeping the trend with past tech breakthroughs, like compilers, internet, mobile etc.

But for number of SWE to increase, demand for software needs to keep growing exponentially to soak up the extra coding capability provided by AI. As of now I don’t see how demand can outstrip supply. Maybe it will come later in unexpected ways?

Gotta wonder about a guy who was pulling down 150k a year and has so few assets he’s reduced to DoorDash and a trailer. Maybe he’s real young. And maybe he just wasn’t top tier talent to begin with.

Not a top talent for sure. The bar for being a top talent has risen quite a bit and will keep getting higher with AI.

Tons of people pulling 300K at tech companies doing next to nothing. Replace 10 of these with 3 who can do the same work with help from AI, pay these 3 people 500K and the company cuts its payroll in half.

Actually more than half if you factor in all the other expenses like benefits and taxes.

It’s all about San Francisco.

Future is sufficiently obvious, who can reach there first and make $$$ is unknown.

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I think it’s a sure bet AI will make the pay gap bigger between top performers and average joes and janes.

Before mechanical farming most farmer make the same amount, just barely enough to survive. But afterwards there are far fewer farmers but each one makes substantially more.

Higher productivity = bigger impact = fatter paycheck.

Obviously NVDA will be the first to hit $5T market cap. No need sophisticated analysis.

Centralized training, decentralized inference. The battle razes on.




Apple keeps losing talents.