My hypothesis is that Bezos is using a growth strategy not unlike the one he uses to gain market share for Amazon’s products-- entice people away from the competition with favorable pricing and keep them there until their other options fade away. Imho, this is why he will choose a lower cost area with tax breaks further away from other employers who may try to steal his best managers from HQ2. Since HQ2 will have functions beyond tech, I think its success will not bound as tightly to the clustering benefits of major tech hubs (SV).
I doubt this new place will become SV 2.0 but it may start a wave of migrations and new businesses to the area, good for the economy.
Amazon wants to hire 50,000 (high tech only/majority high tech??) workers in 15 years?
Assuming that hiring rate is linear & what Amazon is projecting is true, that translates to 50000/15=3333/yr= 13 ppl/day(52 weeks/year, 5 days/week).
It’s difficult to do that in an area which lacks enough existing tech workers such that they can be poached from other companies i.e. Exlclusively green field hiring(getting workers from the rest of the country) without substantial local hiring seems difficult.
Cities are either growing or they are dying. Does anyone want to be the next Detroit? You either need to attract employers to create job and population growth or a city dies. A huge portion of city budgets are pensions of already retired city workers. A small population decline blows a huge hole in the budget leading to service cuts. Once that happens more people leave, and you don’t escape the downward spiral. You become the next Detroit.
Cities spend hundreds of millions on stadiums. How many jobs do those create and at what pay? There are cities that still owe tens of millions on the stadium after the team has already skipped town.
It’s a matter of price. The deal that Wisconsin did with Foxconn is bad. The state spent 3B and only got 13k not-so-good-paying jobs, at a cost of 230K per worker. Let’s say each worker makes 50k it will take 5 years just to break even. Even worse there is no contract Foxconn has to sign saying they will indeed hire that many workers, nor for how long and how much they will be paid. It’s 3B for nothing.
Amazon is much higher profile than Foxconn, but still that depends on how much tax rebates they are asking. I don’t think it’s long term smart for Amazon to get away with say 10B of tax subsidy, no matter how many jobs Amazon says it will bring. It’s bad PR and burns people’s goodwill. One day the political wind will blow the other way and Amazon will be in the cross hair of politicians and regulators.
At least 101 cities, states, provinces and counties in the U.S. and Canada have indicated they are interested in the Seattle company’s second headquarters in the week since Amazon announced it was seeking bidders for the megaproject.
They range from obvious big-city candidates like Chicago, to a joint effort by smaller towns in North Carolina tobacco and textile country, and a push championed by the University of Maryland in suburban Washington, D.C.
It’s unclear how many of these prospective bidders will send the online retail giant formal paperwork by the company’s Oct. 19 deadline. Some don’t appear to fit the criteria Amazon laid out for its second home.
Still, the rush for mayors and economic-development officials to announce their candidacy reflects Amazon’s growing influence, as well as the unprecedented scale of its offer.
The tally of potential bidders is almost certainly missing municipalities that have been quiet about their intentions. For instance, among the largest U.S. cities, officials in Atlanta and Cleveland have yet to discuss their thinking publicly. Spokespeople for development groups in both cities didn’t respond to messages seeking comment on Wednesday.
The bad deals are the data center ones. The data center creates about 50 long-term jobs for the local economy and gets millions in subsidy. Taxes vary a lot by state. I’m sure some states need to offer deals just to be on equal footing with more business friendly states. Then there’s regulation on top of that.
CA requires the former employer to pay unemployment plus $200/wk to the state in administrative fees. Most states pay unemployment from the payroll tax collected for it. In CA, that only covers it if the business goes under and can’t pay it. It’s crazy CA makes a business pay $650/wk for up to 6 months whenever an employee is terminated. Since the state wants their $200/wk, they normally side with the employee even if it was for cause. Oh, and since severance is paid lump sum so they don’t have to keep the employee on payroll for benefits, the employee is immediately eligible for unemployment. You can double dip severance and unemployment at the same time.
Difference is that most “cities” have suburban sprawl without funnelling everyone over a bridge to get to work. That’s why I think Austin and Boston are different beasts from SF or Seattle. NYC is pretty full and sprawled, though bridges or not…
5. Estimated campus size is 8 million square feet
The new Amazon headquarters would fit comfortably in Northwest Austin in the mostly undeveloped Robinson Ranch tract, which is roughly 348,000,000-square-feet. The Apple Campus lies just outside of this tract.
Austin was ranked the number one place to live by U.S. News and World Report in 2017
wuqijun - Move fast. Zip codes: 78759, 78758 and 78727.
Austin has so much land that the upside on housing appreciation is limited. There is not even a bridge there to restrain traffic. I doubt price would increase dramatically if Amazon choose AUSTIN.
Your best insight so far No state income tax and house prices don’t climb dramatically is ideal for rank n file Bonus strip clubs for singles, The Domain for clubbing & shopping, Arboretum for shopping , and outdoor activities for families For rich guys who want status, can buy in Steiner Ranch and West Lake Hills, enjoy the long drive.
wuqijun - 78759, 78758 and 78727 are matured estates of 30+ years but very large lot of 10,000+, if want new houses, need to go further away (about 15-20 mins away instead of 5-10 mins away) like 78613 (Cedar Park), 78660 (Pflugerville), the extremely popular 78717 (avery ranch and brushy creek) and round rock (where Dell is).
yeah, I think it’s a long shot as well…
No state income tax and house prices don’t climb dramatically is ideal for rank n file 
Bonus strip clubs 
for singles, The Domain for clubbing & shopping, Arboretum for shopping 
, and outdoor activities for families