Trump is made scapegoat by Markets, real issue is stocks on sale by big finance companies, hedge funds etc.
Who is to say for sure the Fed hikes come ==> FED itself transparent how many hikes they are making it. This year 3 including last hike. Everything they are transparent last few years.
I suspected this fall, during Jan end, but market went up after two big fall 1175+1100. My original thought, it must go before end of march and it is going right.
The next recession will hit corporations really hard, meaning stock market will crash much more than real estate market. Job loss could be bad, but BA job market might be different and we could have a shallow job loss, just like 2008-2011.
Which industry has high corporate debt load and likely go through really bad default and bankruptcy? Retail is one. What else?
Minerd predicts the Fed will hike rates four times this year and four times next year, increasing the benchmark funds rate to a range of 3.25 percent to 3.5 percent in two years from the current 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent.
âWe are essentially running out of labor and other factors of production are being stretchedâmakes it extremely hard not to see how inflation and wage pressures will pass through to the real economy,â he wrote. âWhen the overnight rate gets to 3 percent the amount of free cash flow in corporate America will be reduced to a level which is consistent with what we have seen in prior recessions.â
The analyst said when the economy enters the next recession companies will have the âhighest debt loadâ in history.
âThe next recession is going to emanate from the corporate sector,â Minerd wrote. âThere is likely to be a sharp decline in employment and a sharp decline in profitability, followed by widening credit spreads as the market discounts the expectation of higher corporate defaults.â
Stock crash will hurt high end buyers the most. That market has been slowing for a couple of years. Mid range and lower still need buyers with high pay. Jobs are key. Watch the unemployment rate.
I think that the highend like PA got ahead of itself. The $2m and below homes have gone up a lot. My old $3m house in Emerald Hills has gone up 3% a year since I sold in 2015.
You get way more for your money per sf at $3m than $1.5m
But there are few buyers for $3m and up houses.
To keep the economy going, the country needs a plan to up skill people to fill the 6M open jobs. Itâs probably easiest to up skill people that already have jobs for better jobs. Then let people that are currently out of the work force take the entry-level jobs.