Are we heading 2008 return? See the appreciation, exactly like 2008

With stocks crashing day by day, Real estate growing year by year exactly like year 2008,are we heading another RE downturn?


It’s 2000, not 2008.

Sell stocks and buy houses. Housing price was severely up from 2000 to 2008. Stock was severely down.

How are stocks severely down? They are not even anywhere near 52 week low yet. Stop frowning.


Stocks are not severely down yet.

Nasdaq 9/1/2000 was 4234, dropped to 1771 on 4/10/2001. This is almost 58% down from peak.

If the slide continue that path, we will get deep trouble in real estate, we will get thanksgiving sale in Real estate !

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I think you may be right. I sold mine last summer for 548k and the exact same model in my complex sold for 615k a few week ago. I think the market may be ready for a downturn soon. It was listed at 575k.


15% up is normal. How is the appreciation in SD?

I was talking about the severe stock down from 2000 to 2008. Trying to use history to scare you


I’m not trying to manipulate the fact, that’s the sure way to lose credibility. It’s totally valid to use historical parallelism to scare people though

For real estate, this is abnormal even for bay area except year 2006-2008

Appreciation was faster in 2013 and 2014. I think housing market has legs to go, if stock crashes, interest rate will go down and Trump will use housing to save economy, similar to what Bush did.

I have a feeling that Dems are good for stocks and GOP is good for real estate. That’s why tech CEOs favor Dems.

We could have a major real estate boom thanks to tax reform. Reagan also created a real estate boom, we are at that cycle again. Housing shortage is calling for housing boom economically as well.

Sorry scare tactic doesn’t work on me. In fact I wish stocks are down significantly. I am still waiting for the 5,000+ drop…:slight_smile:

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BAGB, was it you that postulated a theory where “normal” Bay Area housing declines start are the core (SF) and spread out to the edges and happen because of fatigue about price appreciation — and that these declines are shallow.

And that the housing decline in the great recession was “abnormal” where declines started at the edges and spread to the core — and that decline was steep.

I like that theory. If I look at the previous housing price declines, for instance, around 1991, it was because of price appreciation fatigue as well.

As well, I’ll note that demographics are on the side of continued long term housing appreciation — there are 2x the number of millienials as there are Gen X, and millienials are now entering their house buying years.

That was a comment Elt1 stated not long ago. The appreciation starts in the core, then goes to the suburbs, then to outer and far away areas. Then the decline reverses, from the edges to the core. And the decline is faster than the appreciation, big time!

I am not an economist, nor my English is that good. But I believe while there’s money coming in from high paying jobs, this “self massacre” among real estate investors and new rich guys in the high tech industry, Russians, Chinese, and Saudis will keep going on in the core areas where the employers like Google or Facebook (watch that company, it can be “it”) are.

The availability of so much money will create a self made local inflation, to the point only those benefiting from living here due to jobs or businesses will stay, while they can afford it. It is happening, and when it stops is when the jobs are gone. Then we’ll see 10 dancers and only 3 chairs.

Again, what is key? Jobs. I take the SF bus everyday and guess what I am seeing? I am seeing the station packed at even later hours now in the Embarcadero as people head home. Until I see fewer people on buses, I ain’t worried about RE at least.

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Yeah, I said something like that. A normal correction starts with a plateau or underperformance of the core. That’s what happened in 2015 and 2016. Now we have another spurt, but PA appreciation has been slower than Sunnyvale for years.

Demographics is favoring real estate for at least 1-2 decades. US housing is pretty cheap nationally and very affordable. We may have a very long bull housing market nationally.

Core BA will plateau first. BA will also plateau, but Vegas, Phoenix, Reno may have good growth even after BA plateaus

Yes, jobs will go off when rate hike are made. The prelude for job shedding is stocks crash and companies make less money, cost control etc.

By the time you see buses/roads are empty, we would have been in deep recession, right.

Sure, stocks could trigger it but we aren’t even seeing remotely any major layoffs yet. Shoot, jobs are going unfilled. I board my bus about 6:45am and it is packed with a lot of young people heading towards downtown to employers like Salesforce (see too much Salesforce swag items).

Fed Hike first, Stocks second, wait for an year, jobs third, real estate fourth…Year 2000 spread until year 2003.

So you are saying recent stock decline is real bear?

yes, sell your equity before it drops like a rock and load up on RE. Ride the next downturn by buying a few more.

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Who is to say for sure the Fed hikes come, if the stock market starts to actually tank as opposed to just reacting to Trump and the trade issues?

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