Just took a long walk along the 6th. Lots of activity for sure. Ppl are chill and tons of homeless in the mix, comparable to SF if not more.
Girls are hot and friendly and seem easy. Young transplants from SF would have a blast here for sure. Their money will pull lot of honey here. May be that’s the draw.
Have you guys invested in any RE Syndication ?
I looked at a few pitch decks but have a hard deciding if the GP is actually good or just lucky/good at sales.
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Seem? Did you?
Did anybody post this yet?
California population projected to stagnate through 2060, down from 13.5M growth prediction
The state forecast comes on the heels of three years of unprecedented population declines totaling about 1%California population projected to stagnate through 2060, down from 13.5M growth prediction
California population projected to stagnate through 2060, down from 13.5M growth prediction
After adding residents for nearly its entire history, California can expect its population to remain roughly the same through 2060, new projections show, in a trend that would upend previous predictions and threaten the Golden State’s status as an economic powerhouse.The forecast from the state’s finance department comes on the heels of three years of unprecedented population declines totaling about 1%, as residents fed up with high housing costs and other quality-of-life concerns fled California in droves.
If San Francisco Is Dying, Then Why Is Big Business Thriving?
To be sure, Austin, the 11th-largest city by way of its 966,000 people, superficially is the undisputed leader for sales and employee growth. That’s because two-thirds of the market capitalization of its top 10 companies is represented by Tesla Inc., whose corporate headquarters shifted at the end of 2021 from California. Even so, the world’s most valuable vehicle maker still counts 47,000 employees in California – almost four times its Texas workforce. California is also where earlier this year Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the electric-car manufacturer will relocate its engineering headquarters to a former Hewlett-Packard site in Palo Alto.
Shade 
over 450 technology companies are now located in the Tri-Valley, and worker productivity is among the highest in the nation — at least according to regional boosters like Tri-Valley Connect. Between 2018 and 2022, the region saw a 60% increase in tech companies.
“There’s as much innovation going on in the 680 corridor as Austin, Texas,” said John Albrecht, a development manager at the Port of Oakland, referring to the Texas city that has become one of the fastest-growing tech centers in the country. “It’s extraordinary really.”
“There’s as much innovation going on in the 680 corridor as Austin, Texas,” said John Albrecht, a development manager at the Port of Oakland, referring to the Texas city that has become one of the fastest-growing tech centers in the country. “It’s extraordinary really.”
@manch would counter this statement because it implies Austin city has tons of innovation going on and that Bay Area (East Bay is part of BA) is copying Austin city.
Note: Austin here refers to city of Austin and not Austin DT.
Kind of weird to compare Tri-Valley to Austin city since Tri-valley is a much larger area than city of Austin.
I toured many areas in Austin, including West Lake area, south Austin, and also the west of the Domain. I think I was really put off by the weather. I cannot live there TBH, it’s a huge compromise living there. I doubt that the most productive and capable people who are doing well in their life and career would live in Austin. Austin also lacks character and it does not have the upscale feel. I dined at very nice places but food scene is not even comparable. But people are very nice and friendly there, much more than Bay Area and SF. However, nice people does not equate to wealth and success. In fact there is inverse correlation. So I decided to pass and I am sad to see Austin bubble burst in my mind.
I think the smartest RE investment mantra remains to hit places that have fundamental moat that cannot be artificially created, like great weather, natural beauty, limited land, strict construction code, critical mass of talent pool and companies, great education and world class universities, center of tech and up class immigration, etc. and Bay Area checks all of them. Political environment changes over time so I will not make long term investment decisions based on that.
Texas certainly has high potential due to lower cost of living and low to mid tier society can certainly develop there and thrive, but the cream will not go there because they can afford to live on their terms and in much better places. Do not Give me example of Elon Musk please. In my friend circle itself, many average folks moved to Austin, but I do not know of anyone who is immensely successful and moved there.
For diversification reasons, I will continue my search for the next RE investment hub after Bay Area, and I will be looking at Hawaii, San Diego, Washington and Florida.
In the meantime, I am enjoying 6% return on my dry powder and the ever growing rental income. It really feel like the higher the interest rate goes, the higher is my income. It’s exactly opposite of what Fed is trying to do. I wonder how far Fed has to go to break the back of this economy. May be 8%, I do not know. I am salivating at the impending mega crash and upcoming opportunities.
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How long is your long term? It could outlast you 
Elon Musk? Obviously have to cite him. He is way better than any of your friends in Bay Area.
Assuming what you said is true. So you intend to rent to successful people and not those average folks?
I am obviously more nice and friendly than @manch 
Btw, how much wealth do you want? Isn’t time to live, for living, you want to live with nice and friendly people, every other things are immaterial.
If political environment can change over time, so can construction code, talent pool size, quality of universities and migration.
Btw, you can’t just selectively cut off certain data to change the picture. Is like ignore the horns of a bull and claim that it is bear.
Not Universities, it takes centuries to create the brand name and reputation. Replicating Stanford, Berkeley and UCSF Medicine will be an uphill task.
Nice report @REInv would like to hear more about San Diego when you complete that In my opinion, seem to have a good potential – UCSD, growing tech scene, weather, Prop 13 protection on long term rental returns, …
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According to Berkeley Admissions Stats 2022 - #63 by manch, universities in BA have started its decline.
Yeah I looked at San Diego 5 years ago fairly seriously and now I am kicking myself why I did not invest. San Diego prices has risen almost 2x since then. And it’s pretty sticky, it is one of the strongest markets in CA right now. In any case, it is a good sign. Having said that in Housing Crash 1, San Diego crashed one of the hardest so I still have hope that San Diego will come back to the ground. It’s also such a beautiful city and perhaps the only ocean in west coast that has relatively warm waters. My dream is to own cottage style large multi family unit complexes near the ocean, I was looking at a few such properties 5 years ago, they are all 2x more expensive now.
San Diego RE owners even have the audacity to try to sell their properties at sub 2% cap rate when interest rates are at 5.5% and mortgage rates are at 7.5% and both rising.
Don’t wait to buy RE. Buy then wait.
The United States Census Bureau defines an urban areacentered in the cities of Livermore, Pleasanton, and Dublin with a 2020 population of 240,381, ranked 167th in the United States in terms of population.[1] The total population of the area is estimated to be 361,000.[2]
As of 2021, Austin had an estimated population of 964,177,[14] up from 961,855 at the 2020 census.[15] The city is the cultural and economic center of the Austin–Round Rockmetropolitan statistical area, which had an estimated population of 2,421,115 as of July 1, 2022.
Depending on one’s definition of Austin, it either has 3X or 7X the population of Tri-Valley.
If Tri-valley has the same amount of innovation as Austin that means it’s 3X to 7X as innovative as Austin per capita.
Austin people just aren’t very innovative.
That’s what I have been saying all along. People move to Texas for a more relaxed pace of life and cheaper housing. They don’t move to Texas to start world changing startups or supercharge their careers. The A players stay in the Bay, because that’s where the A players are.
There is really nothing with wrong with that. People like different things. But to say Texas will be the new hub of innovation replacing the Bay Area is quite naive.
So sometimes use geographical size, sometimes use population size, depends on what twisted outcomes you want. Got it.