What would be the impact of bitcoin on Bay Area RE. My guess many of the Engineers would have invested in this and would further fuel the war on Land Grabbing here.
@Elt1 @ptiemann @sfdragonboy @hanera @BAGB
What do you guys think ?
My alias isn’t here? Ok then I guess I won’t comment… 
Fine, I will answer for you or with you in mind. I have stayed away from the Bitcoin madness because I think it is a sham, a fraud, at least with the run-up as of late. I would like to think most astute investors have also stayed away or only gambled minimally that it is not going to hurt if the bottom fell out. Frankly, the lack of inventory alone is moving the RE market way higher…
@wuqijun your thoughts are really appreciated .
I want to know the extent of normal folks who made money out of this bubble. The best of brains are here and they must have invested.
We are a sorry bunch… boring long term buy and hold RE and stock investors. No one dared to speculate in an unsustainable bubble. I think the person who remotely put anything real into the game might be @RealEstatebull, but I think even his contributions are very limited…
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I know a few guys who have “invested” in Bitcoin. At least one of them has sold enough to get back more than his original investment, so he’s only gambling his winnings. I don’t think the product is a sham or fraud. I consider it right now as “failing”.
It’s a sad thing from the technology or its inventor’s perspective. He invented the crypto currency as an alternative to the US Dollar (and other government controlled currencies).
But the only thing that people ever report about is, how many Dollars their Bitcoin is worth.
It feels like the peak of the RE bubble. Story is that in Las Vegas around 2004, people would show their real estate license when asked for ID in a liquor store. Everyone over the age of 18 had a RE license in Las Vegas. You walked into any Starbuck’s and you were guaranteed to see 1 or 2 mobile notaries signing closing documents.
Right now, everyone is telling me about Bitcoin. Tenants, contractors, and so on. Yes, they’ve made money.
I ask everyone a simple question.
“Have you ever bought anything with Bitcoin?”
I always got the same answer so far.
So, it’s sad, because this mania totally destroys the product:
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Nobody will use this currency for an actual purchase while it’s so volatile.
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It was meant to be anonymous. But they buy and sell the currency using helper apps on their cell phone. How can this be anonymous?
I’m sure that the inventor is NOT happy with what’s going on.
To answer your original question: Hard to predict the future. A few folks will have cashed out in time and make lots of money. Those who liquidate their 401k today and put it all on red… MAYBE. Maybe not.
Those 2 might neutralize each other.
Now, if everyone would get easy money HELOCs (debt that they cannot afford to just service) and lose it gambling, then we might have an impact on real estate. There may be some distressed sales and even foreclosures in the pipeline for those folks.
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Bitcoin trading has been spreading all over the world, Silicon Valley is not particularly heavy on Bitcoin investment. But we have some early Bitcoin investors who may have made over 500k profit. There are a few who might have pocketed 100M to 10M. With this ongoing fall, more people would take profit and buy a house or car.
But overall I think its impact is small, though realtors started using Bitcoin as one reason to justify the hot market. It may create some marketing buzz but its real impact might be minimal.
In terms of blockchain startups, I am not aware of any majors in Bay Area except Coinbase.
The smart bitcoin gamblers have already sold…A few might buy BA real estate with there gains…we will know buy June…The rest don’t matter…they will just crawl back into their troll caves…
The 2018 market trend will be known by June…I am bullish. Stocks will be up…that is the main driver of BA real estate now…