Cathie Wood Sees 20% Returns After 'Unbelievable' 2020

Many things I want to buy, including bitcoin, yes. I think one needs some exposure just in case. But I am still waiting for more fear to set in… Market not cooperating!

:face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

2 Likes

Sam and Tasha Share Takeaways from Tesla’s Earnings Call

By Sam Korus & Tasha Keeney

On its earnings call, Tesla highlighted battery cells as the biggest constraint to scaling electric vehicle production. In 2022, Tesla itself plans to produce 100 gigawatt-hours of batteries, enough to supply an incremental 1.3 million vehicles relative to the 500,000 it produced last year. Panasonic, CATL, LG Chem, and other cell manufacturers also plan to scale battery output during the next two years.

Tesla’s Model 3 production ramp provides some clues to its plans to scale battery production. After troubleshooting the process in one factory, we believe Tesla should be able to “copy and paste” in similar factories around the world much more rapidly than expected.

During its fourth quarter call, we also learned that only 1-2% of customers in China are opting for Tesla’s Full Self Driving (FSD) package, a “much lower [percentage than in] the rest of world”. At some point, we believe Tesla could offer FSD subscriptions in China, begging the question of its competitive position in a country likely to favor domestic service providers.

Chinese companies have been investing significantly in autonomous driving capabilities during the last few years. Recently, Xpeng rolled out autonomous highway driving features that included entering and exiting highways, a feature that Tesla introduced in 2018 with hundreds of thousands of customer cars generating data to train the neural networks behind new Autopilot features. In comparison, Xpeng is relying on data from only tens of thousands of vehicles. That said, some online videos claim that Tesla’s autonomous features are inferior to those of Chinese companies. If accurate, the reason could be that Tesla’s installed base and data collection have been centered in North America. Nonetheless, as of 2020, Tesla is the leading electric vehicle brand in China and, as a result, could improve its autonomous capabilities at a faster rate than its competitors.

Given pricing dynamics for autonomous ride-hailing in developed compared to developing countries, perfecting FSD in the US first makes strategic sense. In ARK’s published price target for 2024 (soon to be updated for 2025), we assumed that if Tesla were to launch autonomous ride-hailing in China, its take-rate could be significantly lower than that in the US, especially if it were forced to share the economics with Chinese partners. In our recent Big Ideas Report, we illustrated that the developed world could respond to autonomous ride-hailing more dramatically than developing countries because human driven ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft are much more expensive in countries like the US than are those in China. According to ARK’s research, at maturity and scale, an autonomous taxi could price at 25 cents per mile, roughly half the cost of ride-hailing today in China but one eighth that in the US.

ARK estimates that the enterprise value of autonomous ride-hail platform operators could increase to $3.8 trillion globally by 2025. Given the size of the opportunity, the competition could prove fierce. Longer term, however, we believe companies with the most comprehensive and high-quality driving data and the best execution should enjoy natural geographic monopolies.

AutoX Launches the First Driverless Robotaxi in China

By Yulong Cui | @YCuiARK
Analyst

This week AutoX launched China’s first fully driverless robotaxi to the public in Shenzhen, China. This also makes AutoX the second in the world to introduce fully driverless robotaxi, only a few months after Waymo’s launch in Arizona last fall. AutoX is a private autonomous driving technology company founded in 2016 by Xiao Jian Xiong, an MIT-trained AI scientist also known as “Professor X,” and is backed by Alibaba and DongFeng Motor.

While the initial launch was in a remote district and could run into roadblocks before broader commercialization, AutoX’s milestone highlights China’s technological progress as the global robotaxi race gets underway. In our view, many investors are underestimating the impact of China’s ability and agility in adapting to new technologies, its government’s focus on leapfrogging other countries in the technology race, and the potential of infrastructure projects likes V2X - vehicle-to-everything - to accelerate its robotaxi progress.

1 Like

Any takers of BBIO? It is 5% up today

1 Like
1 Like

Keep shifting targets? These guys move fast.

Silver already abandoned. Reddit raiders are like locusts

2 Likes

Now that market is closed. I searched and found post below dated Dec 20. Without TSLA, 100% return in 2020. Not bad at all.

1 Like

2021_02_02_indexes_vs_TQQQ_2020

Her team matched the TQQQ return without TSLA. TQQQ with 30% drop in between.

Coming to the point, The biggest challenge for any one is to identify any stock which can exceed the TQQQ return !

Otherwise, simply put $5 million on TQQQ, hold for long ! No need of paying hedge fund fees, no monitoring stocks whether it goes up or down !

1 Like

TQQQ is leveraged correct? So in flat market, will lose value, correct?

Safer to switch to TQQQ after big dip in market. Too bad I wasn’t paying attention to its existence last March!

TQQQ is leveraged 3x of QQQ. If QQQ is 1%, TQQQ will be 3% down. If QQQ is 2% up, TQQQ is 6% up. Everything settles end of the day.

Since market is going up and down, over an year, it is working as 2x easily.

Year 2020 is really good example:

Jan to Mar depth, QQQ went down 21.14%, but TQQQ went down 60.79%
Mar to Dec depth, QQQ went up 84.05%, but TQQQ went up 410.39%

Blind investment,
Jan to Dec depth, QQQ went up 45.14%, but TQQQ went up 100.13%

To me, unless a stock exceeds TQQQ performance there is no point in investing any stock, rather blindly buy and hold TQQQ !

3 Likes

Yes but this performance is over a huge long bull market. What if market was flat for 5 years? Say QQQ is net 0% gain over 5 years, won’t TQQQ actually be negative returns?

I would live to be proven wrong, but I’ve read that elsewhere.

IQ > 130 :+1:

Market is in a multi-decade bull run since 2009. TQQQ started in 2010.

Just a short duration to illustrate a flat market. Market could go sideways for decades, up and down a price range. Just multiply year by 10 for the graph below.

3 Likes

Nice example Kudos ! Never thought it would happen !!

No doubt, that risk is there, with indexes, stocks and every financial instruments including ARKG kind of funds.

Yes but even on this graph, you can find points where QQQ has reached back to 0, and TQQQ is at a loss (10% or so). If this continued for another few years, what would that look like?

I’m just trying to poke some holes to prepare if there was a black swan event or worst case very multi year recovery.

If one buys TQQQ right now, totally possible slim chance that it loses 90% of its value and stays there for a few years.

To me TQQQ is a great play to buy some on big dips, and if it really drops, put a lot of money in. Basically someone is doing the options management for you. Doing this correctly, I can see 25% of portfolio could turn total assets to 8 digits and guarantee retirement.

4 Likes

I has been explaining to @jil for very long, he doesn’t seem to get it. I told him Cycle IV is very near. No point buying any indices. I have already done all the comparison long ago before he mentioned it. Just trade and wait for Cycle III to be completed. And then a crash, buy then. Don’t think he understand internalize the significance of Cycle IV which I said many times is a multi-year corrective wave. I posted the charts many many many times in the Indices & ETFs - #1680 by hanera

That is what I said. I kind of tired of explaining to him :wink: I guess I didn’t say this A statement (in bold),

Essentially drawing the conclusion that matters the most to him in PLAIN ENGLISH.

2 Likes