90% will not catch this virus, and of those about less than 10% might encounter fatalities.
Watched todayâs corona virus task briefing. Lock-down likely to continue till the end of next month. My gut felling says something else. Lot of tests developed including that one that can be self sampled have come online.
All the other diseases you mentioned have identification kits, medical control or cure except snakes. Coronavirus does not have identification yet until 14 days and they can spread easily.
India lock down (illiteracy runs) is not a real lock down like USA (highly educated - awareness). The good thing is government has taken extreme steps like USA, locking down (quarantine) all foreign travelers (including citizens).
India has lot of pre-existing condition old people, above age 50s and India (and china) are highest diabetes in the world. All of them will get affected by immune deficiency !
The basic truth is Human immune system can alone kill the virus and prevention is better way.
All medicines accelerate human immune system to fight against a virus.
Still government is trying to do their best, but people are not aware of Coronovirus impact except big cities.
Wait until S&P touches down below 2000 (appx 1800), you will know the truth. The last week jump is pure DCB (dead cat bounce) !
Recession started 2008, but recovered in 2012, in between there was small DCB.
The current one is alarming next to 1929 (not even close 2008 and 1987). With extreme unemployment figures (3.2M all basic month to month survivors like hotel employees, bar tendersâŚetc), prolonged shutdown-close of blue collar jobs is a big risk for country economy.
Most of them hit so far is (I guess - but do not know) less than 75k earners (Based on gov bill).
It all depends on how peak unemployment is and how long it takes for us to bring normal work/operations
If I further guess, we may even see a trading halt tomorrow â this is pure guess/gut feeling.
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One case in Payson. Lady was on a cruise ship. Will that industry EVER come back?
I think the rural areas will enjoy some protection from pasty white social distance. Supposed to be 6 ft; weâre already half way there. I saw this in the Bay Area. Comfort space for white folk - maybe 3 ft. Asians - less. Indians - less still. Middle easterners -almost nothing. Itâs funny to watch a white guy having a conversation with a middle easterner. Almost unconsciously he eases back on a diagonal to open some distance but not appear to be moving away. Middle easterners, without thinking, close the distance and the process repeats. After about 10 minutes of this dance the two need to get their bearings because theyâre 15 feet from where the conversation started and neither is quite sure how they got there.
Seems odd on the face of it as warmer, more tropical areas have way more disease but most of the heavy duty stuff requires an intermediate host. You donât get the dengue or yellow fever or malaria or schistosomiasis because someone with it coughed on you. Thatâs how you pick up all the white people diseases like small pox, measles and influenza. Weâre already conditioned to distance ourselves. Some of it might be an expression of American ârugged individualismâ or âexceptionalismâ but a lot of it is likely thousands of years of pressure from epidemics caused by airborne contagion.
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Has anyone heard the theory that eastern block countries had a different TB vaccine than the west and are therefore more immune to covid19
We need to separate the stock market with the economy. Letâs assume we only had debt and bond market, and no stock market. Probably they (investors) will only look at interest rates. People will not have a number like DOW 30 or SP500 to look at every morning. The economy would still work. The desire to see stock market numbers up and up is one thing. Economy, in which the goods and services are exchanged (summed up as GDP) every day is another. The demand drives the output. People do not stop getting hungry, sick, needing haircuts, or things like that. The economy never stops. The question of whether or how fast the stock market will recover to the pre-crash levels is not something I can predict. But, I am sure the economy will return to the full employment level pretty fast. People will have jobs, they will rent homes, they will buy food, they will pay their bills.
The CA Department of Public Health hasnât released the daily numbers yet. Prepare to knock your socks off.
India has lot of pre-existing condition old people, above age 50s and India (and china) are highest diabetes in the world . All of them will get affected by immune deficiency !
How can China have the highest diabetes in the world? Type 2 diabetes has the highest risk is overweight people and you donât find many of them in China.
Chinese eat a lot of rice everyday whole life
Does diabetes automatically translates into immune deficiency?
Rice is staple diet of almost half of the world population. The problem is that it is easy to digest and packs lot of energy per unit volume (energy density ). So, people end up being obese if they do not control intake. Most rice eaters do not.
Saw someone mentioned itâs the private companies who did the tests and they havenât reported the results back to the state? Something is not smelling right there.
Nonetheless I will ignore your raining on my party and continue to be hopeful.
Daily tests dropped off! Not Cool! Positive rate ticked up. Double not cool!
Sunday. I think every Sunday death count and test drop off. Virus is taking a Sunday off
I also read that most of the pending results are negative. Many of the private labs have been reporting their positives but not circling back and reporting negatives to CA dept. public health,
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Second wave coming on strong. Florida showing sign of becoming NY 2.0.
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The basic frame work of USA, many generations, is business economy , stock market provides capital and liquidity.
IMO, Stock market will go up and down in line with GDP is based on many factors like unemploymentâŚetc.
We are trying to see what will be the future events based on the situation, but you are going again an ideological situation (which does not exists and US - as business economy - will not support) and derive at a conclusion.
It all depends on how much economy is hard hit, whether it is above 2008, 1987 or 1929 or where is it in 2020.
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The definition of GDP is like this:
y = c + i + g + (ex -im)
where
y = output
c = money spent by consumers (66-70% of economy)
i = money spent by private sector in running business
g = money spent by government
(ex-im) = money spent on us output by foreign buyers
So, it is very hard to untangle different sectors of economy. I gave an example a situation without stock market just to make a point. The valuation of total stock market will be based on the GDP. How much GDP will suffer is hard to quantify. Lets say 4% GDP is lost for each month the us is shut down, my worst case estimate is about 8% to 10% of out put loss. I cannot tell how much of it will be reflected in stock market price.
Added later: The speed of recovery will be depend upon the roadblocks economy will face, In pre-printing days, lack of capital used to be a roadblock. These days FED can pull money out of thin air. So, capital and liquidity will not be an issue. Then there could be other structural issues like war or lack of input or things like that. That is why I believe demand will drive the economy. I see no reason for a significant drop of demand.
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Every recession proved high unemployment is the reason for reduction in consumer economy. Current unemployment, unprecedentedly high, is low income earners, running their life week by week paycheck and their savings are too low.
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