Dow Down 666 Points



He is doing great, even with TSLA. When I bought 600 shares of TSLA at $41, many of my friends asked me to sell it as soon as it reached $98. I should have kept it, but sold around $128. I was not so much educated at that time.

This time, I had actually placed limit order at $299, but later cancelled it as I am not comfortable with current market condition, but long on TSLA. For a shorter time, appx 1 year, likely TSLA may go down, but this company has long life for next 10-15 years. I will buy TSLA at deep dip when it comes down.

Whatever I am doing or most of the others doing are speculative, but wuqijun’s is real investment model like the one Warren Holds for long.

The only difference is warren buffet is calculative, but wuqijun is following industry celebrities !


Your thinking change every month :slight_smile:


The market is much more volatile in 2018 than 2017:

The Dow and S&P 500 have already doubled the number of 1% moves seen in all of 2017

Thus far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.07% has had 11 sessions when it rose by at least 1%, including Monday, in addition to another 13 where it fell by at least that much, counting Tuesday. While swings of that magnitude are hardly uncommon on Wall Street, they represent a profound change from the trading environment of 2017, when there were only 10 such sessions — in both directions — seen over the course of the year.

In other words, the number of sessions with a 1% move so far in 2018 are more than double 2017’s tally, and it isn’t even April.

But surprisingly the net movement is not that much. S&P is down 2.66% YTD. Nasdaq is essentially flat: down 0.03%.


True, when I analyzed first time, it was correct. But, later I believed wrongly (after all, I am also human, not machine right !) market has changed. Now, I understand my original thought/analysis are correct.

Here is the info. I calculated Dec end that stocks will go up in Jan to peak, it went. I sold on Jan 20-Feb Th. There after, it supposed to go down to reflect FED balance sheet reduction and rate hike impact. Market was going back, but eventually came down until yesterday.

Now, the results month will start, companies may go up or down depending on results. This will again swing back to low during / after the next rate hike in Jun 2018. This cycle will continue as usual, and ultimately all stocks will come down until FED stops rate hike.

At that time, lay offs may start to recover company bottom line…etc. I do not think we will get back down to 26500 any more.

This is all my guess work, I am right 50% and wrong 50%. Regarding BA-RE Crazy (sunnyvale) bids will go off, crazy BA bids go off.

Hereafter no change, at least one year. I sold all my stocks yesterday and today.


Sell in May and go away. I buy for the long term.
Never sell. Could be a wild ride this year. But there should be some great buying opportunities.


There’s a fine line in the way I do my business. Never tell anybody what I’m doing, nor, predict or try to tell others how to make a living or succeed on something you, only you have understood or learned by your own.

Trying to suggest a better way to do business is a poison pill on this forum. Most of readers are into something they believe is the last thing on earth. They are doing fine, why changing?

Right now, this minute, I can go to any company of < 50 employees, or >50 offer them a pension plan with no cost to either an employer or employee, and that minute, if they like it, which is likeable, I can retire to live with the residuals because I am not greedy and live a simple life.

By being here commenting, LOL…I am not gonna make it! :smile:

All I need is to go out there and offer, right? :smile:

Like buying, keeping or reselling a property. There are many ways to make a living, way one too many.



The punishment never let up since that fateful day in February. Account now down 13% YTD. :sob:


Big picture has not changed. Guess you have added a lot more recently.
If it drops to BTFD price, would buy UPRO :slight_smile: or SPXL :grinning:




That’s the million dollar question that I’ve asked previously. At present, I presume wave 4 has not completed, obviously it means wave 5 is not completed. Hence should BTFD at BTFD price. If you think wave 5 has completed, should be STFR.

Slight screwup in labelling. wave i, ii, iii, iv… on below chart is identical to the wave 1, 2, 3, 4… in red of previous chart.


Now, I clearly understand the EWT you are showing ! Kudos !!


Your view based on Fed actions and political assessment is equivalent to wave 5 has completed. Completion of wave 5 would mean the retracement would be minimally to the blue wave 4.ii on the above chart, about 2000. From experience, it usually retraces all the way to wave 2 in blue, about 1100… yes, that bad.


First, where did you learn this EWT?

IMO, wave 5 will not even reach wave 4 (Jan 26-29th, 2018) peak, but die down below that peak. The time frame for next wave peak is between now and next 15 months (5 qtr) max.

The slide already started, but any one selling at today’s DIP is not correct, it will hurt them as today Dip is DEEP.

They have to wait for uptime and sell it when profitable (if they like to get out).

Those who sold already, like me, should not buy thinking it is dipped already.

This is my own guess.


Truncated fifth wave is very rare😀 Need to monitor closely. Btw, did you pay attention many wave fives of different degrees might be completed, is not good, it means the decline could be pretty low and long😰 in other words, RE would follow down severely.

Read a few books. Neely and the standard frost book. Seldom check time because hard to guess.


The reason for guess:

  1. FED has applied four times rate hikes so far. Every one, including companies and individual is shouldering the impact already. Companies will face profit margin hit.

  2. Most of the businesses are importing as all US companies made USA as marketing place rather than producing here ! Trump is adding tariff after tariff on imports, almost 25%, which will nullify all the tax reduction corporations got now.

  3. Economy is already down 10%. Falling is easy, but going up is slow. It takes at least 6 months to recover the 10% lost so far, but there will be two more rate hike by that time.

If SP500 does not go up back 5% within next 45 days, there is no chance for the next wave up as we will reach Jun FED meeting for another rate hike.

Then Oct and Dec rate hikes, by that time SP500 may likely sink another 10% which gets us into recessionary cycle.

Again, my own guess, it may be right or wrong.


Stock market is down 10%. The economy is still growing.


All eyes on earning season. If earnings blew everyone out of the water stocks can climb out of this Trump hole.

If not… :scream:


Down 13% YTD or from all time high? My portfolio is down 9% from all time high, but only down 3% YTD.


Down 13% YTD.