If stock market is pure random events, years with Jan closing higher will have 6.5 to 5.5 odds to be up for the whole year. 
On top of that, stock generally goes higher over time, this makes the odds even higher.
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Wrong again. I’m not a bull and never predicted the market going higher this year. I only said that it will going higher eventually.
Conditional probability with Jan up is much better than 50-50
It does appear to be the blind leading the blind, and in fact is the case… 
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You still got time to sell in May and go away
Wrong what? I never said this year, that was only in your head. In general you are a massive bull of the stock market thus you never sell.
You said “Jil was right this time”, thus implying a short term prediction of the market outcome. As always, stock investment is never a short term bet. Call @jil a stock speculator, not a stock investor.
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Jil tends to follow market sentiment and changes his position from time to time.
What I read between the lines is that some of you weren’t prepared for this litmus test. If I can call it like that.
You were all drunken and beating on the house too long and never took precautions to get to this stage of a market showing signs of tiredness.
Some of you, are abandoning the principles, in some part, of the investment strategy of holding your pawns and take it as it comes since markets rebound no matter what.
Those holding their investments in a safe place, are bears.
Are we in bear territory?
That’s why he missed out on some strong, solid gains in the stock market and was never quite able to put together a big portfolio.
You are making me write ! Breaking my silence !! Who is blind? and who is blindly saying? I predicted, came out of market, and firm on that recently…You are long term holder, but that does not apply to short term holder…
Do not say I am clueless or blind. I know what I am doing and also predict short term.
I am not blindly telling Market will go eventually as this is easy for any one to say.
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Yes, most of the people here are not investor like you. Whatever hold applies to you will not apply to them. Most of them like me, stock trader or speculator.
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Yes, sir, correct.
I changed once, thinking wrongly, but again corrected and said next 12-18 months not good. I sold entire stake all stocks. The only bet I have is 5 puts from SPOT Jan 18.2018 strike.
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Here I stop until someone provokes me again !
I value his investment idea, buy at low , hold for long, perfect idea like hanera or warren buffet. His concept is good for those people who hold since beginning.
He must also know that whatever applies to him may not apply to others.
What if AAPL goes down to $120 or AMZN goes down to $1000. Eventually, after many years it can go up.
There are plenty of short term purchased AAPL at 160 or 170 or Amzn at 1350. Plenty of users are on options and they are all short term players. If they do not secure their position, they may likely regret forever when market deep sink.
This is the only reason I am suggesting people to read “Margin of Safety” available in the internet freely. This is very strange book, not easy to read, but a golden bible of stocks.
If they save money now, esp when entire market is going down, they can enter later.
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I like provoking people’s weaknesses… 
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