I think we are headed for the worst possible scenario - Biden with a large popular vote win but a small electoral college win, Republican Senate, Democratic congress. Markets may be reacting to that. Basically no stimulus and McConnell will try to gum up everything just like he did for Obama.
Even if he pulls off a comeback in MI and WI, that’s not enough.
223
10 MN
16 MI
10 WI
That’s 259. That’s still 11 short. Give him Hawaii and he’s 7 short. He needs NC, GA, TX, PA, or IA + MT.
I don’t think any of those are likely to end up blue, and there’s still risk in MI and WI. I’m having a hard time seeing how he gets there.
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House is done. Democratic party actually increased their share. flipped more seats then the lost. Most of the sites already called the house for the democratic party.
Fox is latest. TX is red.
TX was never blue/purple. Nate Silver is a total clown. Your data was bad data. Hope you guys got your Kleenex.
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Biden just pulled ahead in GA as the urban counties started to drop more of their votes. He is way overperforming in GA and NC (but i think his chance in NC is low)
For the record here are the final polling averages, for Biden:
RCP
WI +6.6
NE02 +5.0
MI +4.8
ME02 +3.7
PA +2.5
FL +1.7
AZ +0.5
GA -0.2
NC -0.5
TX -1.2
OH -1.4
IA -1.4
538
WI +8.4
MI +8.2
PA +4.9
NE02 +3.8
ME02 +3.2
AZ +2.6
FL +2.6
NC +1.9
GA +1.3
OH -0.7
TX -1.1
IA -1.3
Are you going to argue they are accurate? Is anyone going to argue they are accurate or valid?
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TX is way closer than I would’ve thought. I guess 48% of the population doesn’t care about gun rights.
“Accurate” meaning what? You are supposed to look at them with a margin of errors. Statistics, you know?
But Florida seems to be a clear miss, if Trump ends up being +3.
Biden is running 1.5 pts better then Hillary in the 600 counties that have completely counted their votes. This should be enough for the scenario I painted above - large popular vote win (4.5% vs 3%) and small electoral college win.
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Lol, wow the denial is intense. The margin of error should cut both ways evenly. It seems the error is heavily slanted in one direction.
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I don’t think I am in denial. I have been saying Trump can win, but the odds are not in his favor.
Let’s see how it goes.
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You totally forgot AZ
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Where do you see that?
It’s already blue in the 223 number…
NYT projection based on out standing votes in De Kalb and Fulton counties. They will resume counting in the morning
No not given a check mark yet.
Look at Hanera’s post. 223 and AZ is blue.