FANGMANT/ Manificient Seven + NFLX

After doing the table, I realize I have acted too early on TCEHY. Anyhoo, need to increase stake in BIDU. And patiently wait for FB to come to papa.

Only 1 infinite loop is good.

May I remind you of this:

Investing is from now to future :slight_smile: not about the past.

Then why bother looking at trailing P/E?

Forwards are estimates. TTMs are facts. Using P/S(ttm) and P/E(ttm) are gauging expectation, not forecasting future direction. Everybody has their own way of interpreting above or not using them, my assessment is:

  1. P/S < 7 and/or P/E < 20: Either undervalued or low growth
  2. P/S > 10 and/or P/E > 40: Either overvalued or high growth

Going for 1. is value investing. Make sure enough DD is done not to mistake value trapped as undervalued.
Going for 2. is going for high return. The problem is expectation may be too high and hard to meet. One miss can lead to big drop in share price.

Market is lowering the future estimates because of the tariff war. However those estimates have yet to be reflected fully as analysts are slow to update because of vested interest. So better to avoid buying 2. type of stocks for now. Wait for them to decline a little more till P/S < 10 and P/E < 40, although is pretty high but high growth stocks are like that unless they become value stocks like AAPL :slight_smile: Are F10s slowing down to value? Btw, not market-timing, just a good principle to have some margin of safety when accumulating.

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If I were to follow that kind of strategy I would never have invested in Tsla. But I’m sure glad I did. Sometimes you just have to follow your gut. Tsla has a long way to go to become a value stock :slight_smile:

Btw, when I started buying AAPL, it is a money losing business :slight_smile: recalled loss $1B per quarter :sob: So I invested a small sum :slight_smile: boy oh boy… why don’t I invest much more :hugs: Btw, also very volatile. I think you are making the wrong comparison. F10s are not tiny company, they are now close to maturity. Recalled SUN offered $1B to buy over AAPL :sob: Scott Nealy where is he now? Small cap, startups, we don’t care about profit :slight_smile: only fast revenue growth or whatever is growing fast… ignore P/E ratio, probably have P/S 15+ .

Investing decision today is now to future.
Criteria for matured business != criteria for startups/ IPOs
Owned and holding != new purchases

Value investing is overrated. Everybody claims to be a value investor. I remember someone mentioned the PE of AAPL in its iPod days. It was sky high then.

Your point? Are you saying value investing as an investment strategy is not good? Or too many investors are doing value investing nowadays and hence there are no stocks worth value investing?

IMHO, the past five years, everybody are into growth investing strategy so much so that some ordinary businesses so long is called cloud-computing, AI, big data and whatever in trend is overvalued. Is time to move back to value investing. Or at least should reduce exposure in some of the growth stocks because I believe market is re-assessing the worth of some of these growth stocks. Are you against this thinking?

When everyone says s/he is a value investor that just sets off my BS detector. How do you define “value”? Cheap PE doesn’t always mean value as you have pointed out yourself.

I heard on a podcast an excellent explanation of value investing. The guy said value investing is often just waiting for a multiple rerating. So for Micron you can say we are investing for value now because the market believes it’s a commodity business and rated it very low PE but I don’t agree with that rating. I bought in now and wait for a rerating.

Catch is market is right most of the times. So that rerating may never come.

Overall I don’t subscribe to any investing theories, be it value or momentum.

Not in the same frequency channel. Thank you for sharing what you have learned recently :sunglasses:

MY 2 cents on TSLA.

I have many times indicated TSLA will not go bankruptcy, but will make others bankruptcy ! I am not telling this since I bought TSLA, but it is created by innovation, patent technology. It is hard to break the leader in the field.

Regarding profitability, Tesla may make very less profitable company like AMZN or NFLX. Elon will not let the company make profit and pay taxes. Instead he will make very less profit, to avoid taxes, but expand the company/empire bigger. With TSLA results,now or later, value investing will not fit.

In next 10 - 20 years, only electric car technologies are going to grow/survive and Tesla will long last until then.

I have seen TSLA ranging between 280 and 380 so far. Now, the range may be changed above 300 and likely chances it may cross 400 first time (even with out profit or less profit stage).

Tesla is getting 5B funding to build factory at China to service Chinese region demand. Whatever may be the tariff, it will not affect TSLA as China is 2nd biggest market for his Cars next to USA.

This is my own guess, there is no proof or anything. TSLA stocks this time is my buy and hold forever.

If it reaches below $325, I will buy more as I do not foresee another chance to get below $300 in near future unless recession hits across US.

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:flushed:

The tax code needs to be changed to tax revenue :slight_smile:

If this is the norm,think of AMZN, NFLX, XOM…why not AAPL, all will nosedive and/or move out of the country.

If every companies start having zero profit, tax collected would drop drastically, how?

You mean zero profit. Government’s revenue comes mostly from W2 income deductions. Corporate profits is not the main source of its income.

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Plus, corporations pay a ton with their half of payroll taxes.

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So zero corporate tax is the right tax rate?