Fang, ant, bat


#1710

WB buy stocks that pay dividends although he doesn’t :joy:


#1711

You live in Cupertino so stick with Apple. Only Palo Alto dwellers should buy FB. It’s out of your league… :rofl::rofl:


#1712

I sold my put on FB today. It was up 55% but I only had small amount. I think FB can bounce back at least temporarily, and options prices change so quickly. I will buy another put if it bounces back quickly. I think Sheryl is a black swan factor.


#1713

What is common is “All 4 are dropped heavily”

See what is the source of revenue?

FB:
Advertisement from companies. When economic goes down, companies and customers reduce expenses. FB has regulatory & Security challenges additionally, keep adding man power to meet those challenges. Revenue increase is really challenging.

TEVA:

Drugs, essential commodity, very standard boring supply chain systems, recession resistance is built-in by medicine field. Cost reduction, debt reduction and restructuring is going on positive towards growth. Few new FDA approvals, like EpiPen…etc, received increases production. Above all, vetted by Warren Buffet team!

AAPL:
Cell phone is semi-essential product, no regulatory challenges like GOOGL, FB or TWTR, mildly impacted by tariff, price hiked absorb the impacts. Again vetted by buffet as he buys qtr after qtr when price hits SMA200 level.

With current price, my guess is , AAPL will recover first, then TEVA and then FB.

The one stock that stands out above all is TSLA which you missed all, growth long term. I purchased it again today no matter whether it goes up or not. Just holding long term. This stock potential is unknown outside with lot of negative hypes. This is one of the highest shorted stock 23% above 10B Market cap. When shorting gets reduced, stock is likely be stabilized. This will happen in 2 or 3 quarterly result.

All are my guess work/my research, nothing guaranteed as market may react differently than fundamentals


#1714

Not true. Previous experience is they increase ad expenses.


#1715

This was my guess (as I said already) as all companies resort to cost cutting that includes advertisement. Since it is related to sales, reduction may be lower than any other expense reduction. You may be right based on your experience.

Let us see this time, how Google and FB revenue increases during downturn !


#1716

I did not miss Tesla! :slight_smile:

See my comments here:

Unfortunately I only bought a small amount!


#1717

Every stocks you bought a little? Small amount and diversified, might as well buy S&P index fund. Don’t you have a few favorite ones? Btw I bought a little when I want to understand the company.


#1718

Well I am mostly holding cash, and a bit of stock and options so that is why the amounts are low. Those stocks/options I have have are doing very well but you’re right, because I have mostly cash the overall gains become very diluted. Especially because I am experimenting with options/puts now, it felt safer to keep a lot of cash to make up for the gambling.

My biggest holds are Stitchfix, Norwegian airlines, Teva, and Alibaba. I am very heavy in Stitchfix, because I hold both call options and stock. I sold the stitchfix stock I bought soon after IPO at a good gain before it dropped, and then picked up more, so I have done very well on this one. I am betting on Walmart trying to acquire it or at least a rumor of it happening driving up the stock.

I did a similar thing with Match, I sold most of it at a high and picked up a smaller amount when it dropped. I am not as bullish on it now but holding it more for sentimental value bc it did so well for me. Silly reason to hold a stock I know.

Of my remaining big positions: Norwegian airlines is up 10-15%, TEVA and Alibaba 10% or less. My smaller amount of Tesla is up 40% so that’s where my allocation was not right and I feel I bought too little. I should have bet more on it. I also sold some when it was up only a bit.

(Sidenote: I wanted to buy some call options on norwegian but literally can’t figure out how. I am a noob. If anyone can figure it out let me know.)

I suppose my experience with crypto has made me cautious about locking in gains and not betting too much when it feels risky. I’m not sure if it will help or hurt me in the long term.


#1719

Answer is in your post…

Above is the main reason why annualized return of a typical trader’s portfolio is lower than a buy n hold investor. over a long period of time. Traders tend to trade in small quantity with huge amount of cash or liquid instruments that yield very low return. A 100% gain using 5% of the portfolio amounts to 5% gain of the portfolio, this is lower than the historical return of 11% for S&P.


#1720

Most of us now comparing current price with old $250-260 range price. If someone has or sees positive growth, TSLA is still a good purchase.

I have been trying many times GTC order on TSLA , but missed it as AAPL came down and STNE came down, I diverted my cash to those.

Since they are turning up, I bought TSLA when I saw lower than yesterday close.

Those who shorted, 23% of stock, must release it or they may incur more loss!

In short, TSLA is still a buy add-on and hold for life. This is what WQJ pointed yesterday “Why people wait?” As chances of stock price increase is higher than stock price reduction!


#1721

TSLA could be going up because of short squeeze rather than on fundamentals. Sorry, I need to defend my rationale of missing out.


#1722

What if it wasn’t? Are you going to regret even more?


#1723

Please organize a Gyu-kaku meetup where you and Jil would pay for the other two :tired_face: since you two are making tons from TSLA.


#1724

Since Aug 28, 2017,

F10 … .+12.08%, dropped 4% :roll_eyes:
AAPL…+19.86%, dropped 7% :sob:
AMZN…+68.44%, dropped 13% :scream:
NFLX…+71.26%, dropped 10% :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
DimSum…-9.33%, improved by 3% :smile:


#1725

This is where you pick a quote and mis understand.

First of all, why short release? TSLA will deliver positive results next 2 qtrs. Assume every qtrly release TSLA moves up $25. Shorters are doomed! Short release will happen when the hope of fall is waning.

First is fundamental change, then short release.

I believe in TSLA and moving forward. That is it ! It is up to viewers to judge whatever way they would like to invest.


#1726

I am not only making money from TSLA, but TEVA too. Today, AAPL came to almost -1% and STNE came to +1%.

My STNE and AAPL are bigger than TSLA ! That is the beauty of volatility and catching the knife ( even though painful)


#1727

In that case, you would have the honor of organizing the Gyu-kaku meetup and pay for all the other 3 :smile:

Have you accounted for the juicy dividends?


#1728

I think Jil is a vegetarian and wouldn’t be interested in gyu kaka.


#1729

Drop from ATH,

AAPL 20.0%
NVDA 39.9% death cross
TSLA 36.4%
FB 36.4% death cross
AMZN 28.0%
NFLX 34.2% death cross
GOOG 21.8% death cross
BIDU 37.4% death cross
BABA 38.6% death cross
TCEHY 48.3% death cross