Financial Samurai: How New Tech IPOs Could Cause SF Bay Area Real Estate Prices To Fall Further


#21

5 years out will be the thing to look at.


#22

Sam is not totally dumb, he has a point. However, population shift is very slow. A 30 year population movement would mean nothing to the short term market direction. (Btw, Sam will not move to the heartland. He is living in SF and plans to move to Hawaii which is 30% cheaper)

BA home price will rise 10% in 2019, mainly due to lower mortgage rate and rising stock prices.

IPO will provide a 2% lift in 2019 and 3% lift in 2020.

Still, housing price is at the late stage of bull. I don’t expect much appreciation in the next 5 years. You can still buy and pretending a flat price for 5 years.

In 10 years, maybe we can get a 30% appreciation from today’s price. We should still be happy about it


#23

Companies won’t move out since too much friction to move. Instead, they just grow faster in other places and make BA grow slower now and stagnate in the future. Look at Connecticut.

Changes tend to be gradual and hard to be noticed by regular folks. When dumb people knows about it, Detroit is already 20% smaller


#24

Exactly… that’s why I said, it’s a 5 year+ process or more.


#25

I don’t know if I agree with this assertion. I need to finish my tax returns.

While the SALT/Mortgage deduction limits have been cranked way down, the AMT Phaseout THRESHOLD has been cranked way up … specifically from 161K to 1M for MFJ. It used to be that if you are MFJ, then if you jointly make more than 161K, your AMT exemptions phase out! And pretty much every white-collar MFJ in SF/SV makes waaaaaay more than 161K.

However, for 2018, that phaseout is 1M. There are lots and lots of MFJ in SF/SV-land that make 300-600K per annum … less than the 1M phaseout threshold.


#26

I think it’s a 15 year things. It needs more than 1 economic cycle. During the crisis, changes happen fast. Change would be very slow when things go well. It takes enormous motivations for drastic changes to happen.


#27

This is not the first time I have heard that RE in the BA operates on a 15 year / 2 economic cycle cycle.


#28

I picked up 15 year after a 3 second thought. 15 must be a magic number and I did not pick randomly


#29

Controller Betty Yee tracks state tax receipts and expenditures; she reported that through December – the first six months of fiscal 2018-19 – revenues were $2.5 billion under estimates, including a $1.9 billion income tax shortfall.

The top 1 percent of New York’s taxpayers supply 46 percent of the state’s tax revenues. In California, 1-percenters’ share is slightly higher, and our top marginal tax rate, 13.3 percent, is higher than New York’s (8.82).


#30

Bay Area will still be king as long as naysayers like @BAGB and @Roy321 continue to be around. :smile:


#31

My money is tied up in CA too :slight_smile: (for now :wink: )


#32

If haters continue to stay that means the pluses outweigh the minuses. For some people the career prospects is better here, for some the Chinese food is better. Many reasons. Bay Area will be fine. The tech network effect is extremely strong.


#33

Whatever makes you happy :smile: and not post :scream:

:rofl: :rofl:


#34

Closed mind is sad.

My post is so wonderfully balanced and I even gave you a 10% appreciation for 2019!


#35

Seriously, honest question, why are you guys staying? It seems to me you two hate the CA taxes?


#36

I never mentioned tax today.

Why are you so frantically loving high tax? Because you paid very little :rofl:


#37

You also didn’t start posting today. :smile:

I don’t love it. I don’t hate it either. It’s just the cost of business so to speak.


#38

Tax thing just happened last year… why are you in a hurry to know the answer :slight_smile:


#39

Even if we have zero state income tax, growth can still slow due to higher cost.

You are such a secretive tax addition nutbolt :sob: My posts today is about housing price prediction based on housing cost and corporate behavior, tax was not a point.

Actually I have been sayin for years that SALT tax impact is minimal.


#40

Really? Need to ask our historian @harriet:thinking:

I am actually very curious what the impact of the new tax law is gonna shake out. Only @harriet has done her taxes? And hers is mostly a wash out. So you may be right. It may be a nothing burger.