Financial Samurai: How New Tech IPOs Could Cause SF Bay Area Real Estate Prices To Fall Further


#41

I meant that SALT tax impact on housing price is minimal for 99% of the people.

I don’t care whose tax is down and whose is up by a tiny percentage, that would have a negligible impact on housing price. Its only value is in political discussions to support or oppose certain political party. It’s a petty issue and it doesn’t even matter much to the presidential election.

When I study market and make investment decisions, I would forget all my political likes and dislikes. Those concerns are for voting decisions alone.


#42

Whatever you do don’t leave. Our market is on you and @Roy321’s shoulders. :scream:


#43

I won’t leave and never said anything close to that. I’m more concerned about where to invest and wish our market can last longer.

Most people move due to jobs and cost of living. Very few people move for their rentals. @hanera is interested in moving due to his desire for big and better primary home


#44

:sunglasses: In other words, the Bay Area RE market will continue to go up due to the blind optimism of @manch in spite of couple of pesky haters.


#45

Not only blind optimism, also frantic fear of truth, ruthless attack on truth :money_mouth_face: :rofl:

Is there any psychological term for this behavior?


#46

My optimism is based on the network effect of our tech ecosystem. It’s growing stronger, not weaker. I have not seen any data points saying we are in trouble.


#47

Exactly. Business owners pass the cost of high taxes onto customers. Thats why they do t care thst much. It’s why liberal policies of high taxes lead to more unequal wealth. The business owner can pass it onto customers, since all businesses share thst same expense. It leads to people paying more for everything which increases the wealth gap. A wise friend told me, “Businesses don’t pay taxes. They collect them from customers.”


#48

The tech growth of Austin and Seattle and even NYC is the obvious data points.

CA population growth rate is worrisome. Without undocumented immigrants, CA population growth could be negative. When middle class leave, undocumented immigrants and tech workers took their houses. It’s more a problem in LA, less a problem in tech mecca. I’m worried about socialism and even communism in southern california. California poverty can’t be solved by high taxes alone. High tax actually makes income inequality much worse.

" Finally, income inequality in California is the second-highest in America, behind only New York. In fact, if California were an independent country, it would be the 17th most unequal country on earth, nestled comfortably between Honduras and Guatemala. Mexico is slightly more egalitarian."


#49

One of the reasons many people won’t mobe out of the by area js becuase of its diversity . I’m friends with a inter racial couple ( white wife and African American husband ) and they moved out . They definitely get stares when they go out for family dinner with thier kids .

Over here …Korean , chinesss , Indian , Russian , all races of people.

Hard to find at other places . MAGA trend has made people to stick around and some people will never leave .


#50

California is unusually reliant on income tax to fund the state’s $183 billion[budget. And [almost half of state income taxes are paid by the wealthiest 1 percent of earners,

According to one study, about 38 percent of Californians in the top 1 percent, earning more than $877,560, will pay higher taxes under the GOP plan, as will about one quarter of upper-middle-class Californians earning from $130,820 to $304,630.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-01-24/california-needs-to-keep-its-millionaires


#51

NYC has even higher taxes than Bay Area. SF+SV+NYC is capturing a bigger and bigger share of VC funding. So it seems higher taxes doesn’t hurt tech all that much. Maybe it even helps? :smile:


#52

CA doesn’t need to keep its millionaires. It needs to keep on minting new ones.


#53

MAGA has made Bay Area a country of its own .

We are “ truely america and staying america “


#54

One time my parents’ flight got diverted to Las Vegas so they went thru customs there. Unlike SFO they were treated quite harshly.

We minorities definitely feel it once outside of our Bay Area bubble.


#55

You mean Asians? I don’t think Blacks and Hispanics can feel the difference when they are outside the Bay Area.


#56

Tell them don’t come


#57

My 2 cents.

Many of my friends, who left bay area, came back in H1 to USA, initially tried bay area, unable to withstand the cost of housing, left again.

This is one way traffic, one left the stream, unable to catch it back, permanently priced out.

It is easier to get out of bay area, being from high cost area, to anywhere else, but the reverse is hard way.

Seen this and seeing this over and over past 25 years here.


#58

I see why your wife is scared to leave the bay area


#59

You should be careful in Texas. :scream:


#60

I don’t think this situation applies to anyone here. However, let us know if you got priced out of Palo Alto.