Stocks are near ATH. Inventory is historically still low. Interest rates are low. Unemployment at all time low. Pent up demand still there. Building sfhs all but impossible in prime BA neighborhoods. Millienials will get sick of paying rent.
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Old listings and refreshed listings are moving again.
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Risk has increased for flippers. Future landlord-investors would demand higher yield. If demand of Primary house buyers is sufficiently high to stabilize the price, rent has to go up, current landlords like me would be happy 
Flipping supper risky at
the high end.
Construciton cost is very high now, low end flipping is hard to make much money.
High end appreciation is gone so flipping could be risky if price declines.
Flippers may go out of business this year. When can we expect construciton cost down?
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Never thanks to over regulation and a shortage of skilled labor
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Economic forecast from a BA realtor.
The Chinese are hoarding gold. And probably bitcoins too
Enjoying an exclusive private lunch with Dr. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. Named as one of the most accurate economic forecasters in Bloomberg/Business Week’s 50 most powerful people in Real Estate, Dr. Duncan spent 2 hours explaining that housing peaked in 2017 and is now slowing, inflation estimated to be 1% in 2022, global economics may lead us into a recession, Russia is totally out of treasuries and China is stocking gold. Housing has always been an acceptable long term investment that leads the country out of any recession.
Implying US dollar would crash?
Maybe. Gold is a safe haven for bears. But the Chinese would lose a lot if the dollar crashes… They own a lot of US treasuries. We could pull an Argentina. Renege on our debt and crash the dollar. Our creditors would suffer the most. Doubt it will happen.
They’ve been selling US treasuries and own their lowest amount in years. Yet, interest rates keep dropping. I remember bears who said if they China dumped their US treasuries, then interest rates would sky rocket.
It does make sense for RE to tread water for a bit. We can’t keep going up at 10%+ a year. Incomes don’t support it. The long-term trend will be up though with millennials being a large generation, and the one behind them is even bigger.
Looks like hasn’t happened yet. What about 2020?
Two things have changed the world.
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Reduction in corporate tax rate brings worldwide money to US side as US becomes one of the tax haven state.
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Worldwide zero or near zero or negative interest rate pushes international banks to hold UST to gain max returns. They keep on adding UST instead of keeping local currencies.
The 2) results yield curve inversion as demand for UST is too high from worldwide.
When world economies are going to recessionary side, USD currency value increases, again going to open loop for UST demand. As long as UST demand stays or increases, we do not see any USD value coming down.
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