We shall see if these houses will sell for 4m in another 20 yrs.
True. So I inadvertently became a value investor in RE buying after the crash. Appreciation rate was much higher than interests rate between 2009 and say 2016. Now housing is fairly valued if not over valued.
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Precisely.
OK, back to the Redfin report for a moment. Median price in San Jose went up a crazy 22% YoY. But we all know median price is meaningless.
More interesting is the inventory level.
In San Jose, the median of 20 days on market is six days longer than a year prior.
DOM went up a lot, from 14 days to 20 is over 40% jump. Let’s see if it’s just an outliner.
San Jose, CA had the highest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 49.1% year over year.
Inventory is up huge.
Part of the increase y/y is because it is a moving window. As we move into devember that number might settle around 15% maybe
Zillow index for mtv is 17% already, palo alto 14% (best i could find on phone), los altos 14%, sunnyvale 20%
Small prixes appreciate better.
Zillow index measures price? Or inventory?
Price.
BA comes with 3 flr homes and 4 flr homes now. With such changes are there, large lot (even 6500 sqft) will be premium in future. SJC will become like now SFO or HKG in 20 years with many innovations are going on.
I was skeptical 20 years before, now I see the reality.
Good Luck!
Rule of 72. I’m sure houses will eventually be $10M.
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We chose not to buy when we arrived 18 months ago. Market seemed to be towards the top of the cycle, Trump was newly elected, interest rates going up, too many questions.
We decided to Rent and Vent for now. I think it may have been the right decision for now. Actually thinking of renting “forever” here in the BA and buying more RE elsewhere…
Oh, and China has not pulled the big guns in the fight over trade with the US. The big guns are:
- 1. stop buying treasury bonds (they are the largest buyer). A failed treasury bond auction and our house of debt comes crashing down...
- 2. UNLIKELY but interesting: stop its citizens from investing abroad. Remember, they can pass any law they want, any time. How about a 50% tax on assets held outside China unless you bring the money back home? This nuclear option would actually hurt the most anti-Trump states without touching his base, so Trump probably wouldn't fight it too much
Being VERY selfish, I dream of #2. It wouldn’t affect the economy as a whole so much, but lower RE prices in the BA… sorry, one can always dream
Renting and Venting… 
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1M home can pull $3000-$3500 per month rental income even in BA.
Where can you find $2000 rent in BA?
If that is average rental, nobody can complain about BA housing market.
Your assumptions in your calculation is biased toward your opinion too much.
I pull $3700 per months for my rental and bought it at 1.2M and that was the peak price, which should have gone down 10% already according to your analysis. Then, now it should be around 1M. You can pull $3700 rental for 1M home not $2000.
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Dude is paying $2K in his rent controlled apartment in MTV, so rent control is the answer.
Other risk, although less likely, is immigration. 2 earner homes becoming 1 earner will put a dent.
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Sure, I am not really skewing really, i mentioned renting as a benefit, not for the primary which was my main point.
Btw y’all are assuming i am waiting for market peak and skewing numbers to my liking 
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China is already reducing treasury holdings. They only own about 5% of the total. Even if they sell all of it all, it’s not going to be a major market shock.