Home Prices Up 4.7% in August, Lowest Price Growth in Four Years

The drumbeat is getting louder and louder…

Redfin has been closely tracking a market shift in San Jose, California, Seattle, and Portland, Oregon, over the past three months. The trends of increasing inventory and declining sales we reported in June and July intensified in August.

In San Jose and Seattle, the supply of homes was up nearly 50 percent year over year. In Portland, inventory increased 25 percent. The increase in inventory is the combination of more people putting their homes on the market as fewer buyers are stepping up to purchase. San Jose, Seattle and Portland saw respective sales declines of 16 percent, 19 percent and 6 percent.

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Did anyone think 10%+ gains would last forever? 4.7% is still a strong year.

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Barely covers new mortgage rates :slight_smile:

Poor you…

That’s actually a good way to look at it.

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There’s a reason why @hanera says loan is not free.

What about property tax and maintenance?

Damn, zombied my response again… :rofl:

Continuing on what @wuqijun said now and @hanera said before

1M home, 800K loan. You pay 35.7K just in interest. Then you paid 1.25% = 12.5K taxes assuming no maintenance.

You paid total of 48K on interest & taxes. Your property is now worth… 1047. You lost money.
This is not what solid growth looks like. This is losing money

Now if you rent the house, story is be different, but only slightly. You could probably pull 2000$/month, making some return. You just get mortgage lever, not much else. That puts your at 248K investment first year 24K return (~10%). But it’s only if you rent the place.


Sorry, I decided to add your point to the calculation.

You’re ignoring that you have to live somewhere which means paying rent if you don’t own.

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I simplified a lot. You will pay utilities and maintenance for your own home, you will pay electricity in gas when renting. You wont have to deal with pool, yard, etc costs either but yoy can have a pool in an apartment complex.
Rent in rent controlled apartment and you might actually get rich.

Mortgage has a finite life though. After 15 or 30 years you own most of the appreciation gain.


Do not simplify as it is biased. Make as realistic as possible. Here is the best buy or rent calculator.

With 30 year fixed mortgage of 80% LTV, buying primary is a winner. I have practically seen it even though timing was in favor of me.

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I am not saying anything against it. I am just not buying stock market or real estate increasing forever no matter what attitude :slight_smile:

Rent vs buy calculator assumes you rent the house you would otherwise buy. That is also not great idea, rightm


mean don’t use calculator.

With house yoy can have side income with adu or airbnb while away. I know these, too. Just saying 4.7% is barely rosy when you pay 4.5 on interest :slight_smile:

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I have wasted first 10-12 years without buying home which is a major mistake. I had seen homes selling 350k (cupertino) when I landed, selling now 1.25M in 20 years. Lost is lost.

Assume practically how much you spend on rent and assume how much you spend on home buying, mortgage, inflation, property tax and appreciation.

It is no brainier buyer wins it.

350->1.2m is barely anything frankly. Keep your monet in case and go margin on the resession every 10 years. Would give the same return.

You forget. You pay the principal yourself. Otherwise investable money.