How the Coronavirus will affect Bay Area Housing Market

Good questions. I agree we will see a rebound when restrictions are lifted.

The best chance of normalcy is if they can find a therapeutic drug that reduces the death rate by a factor of 10.

BTW: In my neighborhood, it already seemed like high-end sales had slowed before the CV

Rental market will have a lot to do with pricing. During 2008 the rents started to drop a lot. If rental drops 10-15% only then I see a lot of stock market money moving to RE for safe haven ala 2001

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Previous housing peak was 2007 and up tick started in 2012, five year after the peak but in terms of dollars depleted of 1/3 of its value. So in terms of 2010 dollars, the home selling today for 1.5 M is only worth 1M. Only $300K gain from average of 2007. 10 years for only $300 K of real gain on 700K is not a very inspiring number.

Bay area RE surged between 2012 to 2014 because of the tech giant IPOs. You’d be lucky if it V shape back to our previous pre Corona levels within a short time frame. If it climbs further from that it’d be due to inflation not other fundamental changes.

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This why I am so concerned about property values.

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Wishful thinking… currently no sales allowed with few exceptions

activities would be considered essential by the County.

  1. Is the sale of a particular property absolutely necessary at this time?
    Is it a reverse-mortgage that must be sold in a matter of days? Is the sale of a home for a doctor, healthcare professional, or emergency personnel who was transferred into or out of San Mateo County? Is the sale for someone moving back home from overseas or some other equally essential situation?

If the answer is YES, the sale can be considered “essential” - continue to Question #2.

If the answer is NO, the County ordinance requires you to Shelter-In-Place (SIP), your work as a REALTOR is only permissible from your residence - “virtual open homes,” and online work is acceptable.

Communism in action

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Oppose the San Jose City Council’s Effort to Prohibit Owners from Collecting Rent

A proposal by San Jose City Councilmembers Carrasco and Peralez would prohibit rental property owners from collecting any rent from tenants who have suffered a COVID-19 related income loss. The ordinance, proposed to last 90 days, would make it illegal for a property owner to recover any lost rent after the ordinance expires.

Carrasco and Peralez are asking the council to enact this emergency ordinance on Tuesday, April 5, and make it retroactive to April 1, 2020. If approved, landlords would likely have to refund any collected rent from impacted tenants. The ordinance also could be extended after the 90-day period ends.

CAA Tri County argues that this ordinance is blatantly illegal, as it violates state and federal law, and is likely unconstitutional. The illegality of the proposal, however, hasn’t deterred the authors from attempting to rush its approval.

Property Owners Need to Speak Up. Here’s How:

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, council meetings occur virtually, so CAA needs impacted property owners to email their opposition to the ordinance, which will be entered into the record as a public comment. The council needs to hear that you are doing what you can to assist your tenants in this difficult time but that you also still have an obligation to pay your mortgage bill, maintenance costs, utility bills, and payroll to support your employees and vendors. Moreover, council members need to understand that forbearance doesn’t relieve you as the property owner of your financial obligations.

To have an impact, you must email your comments tocityclerk@sanjoseca.gov by 12:00PM, Tuesday, April 7. Below is a draft letter that you can send as-is or personalize:

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Score! Don’t challenge my Corona record :raised_hands:

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Many people are still putting them on MLS now.

Of course it’s 2 days after I’ve paid…

Everyone in San Jose should refuse to pay property taxes

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I posted about this for SF county 3 days ago. I know I share a lot of garbage but occasionally I share some useful stuff. :rofl:

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Not San Mateo County though :wink:

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From the article linked below:

“Through the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, landlords are entitled to mortgage payment relief.”

that’s simply not true. I read it - only government backed loans are entitled. For SFR with loans on them, that may be 80% of the properties. For multi-family, I don’t think so. Overall, maybe 60% of all real estate loans will be “entitled”.

(They are not even really “entitled”. The government just recommends that loan servicers help the borrowers. Every servicer handles it differently.)

I talked to a big time landlord. He said his commercial tenants are asking for 6 months free rent. He is offering 3m half rent. His residential tenants are more honorable… 90% paid. Next month he figures maybe 70% will pay. He is not asking for any loan forbearance. Wants to keep on good terms with the banks.

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I wonder how many small mom and pop landlord can hold.