Hard to predict, but this is my guess: This is not real estate downturn, but service economy issue.
We have not seen the impact in bay area yet. If mass exodus happens, then it is an issue which I do not think any issue, except next 5 years. Bay area companies will get rid of highly paid current employees, during next few years (fire/hire), and hire low cost employees, locally and overseas.
Over the period, most of the tech companies will hire people from India & China (and across USA) remotely and ask them to support during USA hours. This will affect new H1Bs, but beneficial to companies as they do not need to maintain big offices, expensive health insurance, uncertainty of workforce.
Remember the long term effect of assets. When worldwide countries print more money to prop-up economy, value of money goes down, that has direct effect to all assets prices including real estate,i.e. assets prices will increase when value of money comes down.
If there is a dip in real estate, in next 2-3 years, our forum investors can confidently buy good location in bay area, hold for long. It will be rare event to get in at low price. But, it depends on how many foreclosures. Again, this is not RE issue, hard to get back to year 2008-2011 level (guess).
When economy recovers: As usual this is stock economy (bay area), as long as stock wealth is increased, price will continue to grow with stock market. As long as new IPOs are coming, it will continue.
Never was 100%. BA still 50-60% Multiple offers— still very high.
Even during the the Great Recession there were multiple offers. There is a housing shortage in desirable areas. In 2008-2012 there was a shortage of buyers. So far this time there isn’t. Sellers may get desperate at the end of the forbearance period. That date is uncertain. I am investing in a Vulture fund, we will be looking at failed multi family developments under construction in the BA. Many were forced to stop work. Many won’t survive a rent reduction that may be coming. There may be a glut of luxury class A rentals even though there is a shortage of sfhs for sale.
But he also dashed a Silicon Valley dream: that tech workers would be able to take their generous salaries with them as they flee the Bay Area’s crushing housing costs, dirty sidewalks and crowded roadways.
MP poops? Needles?
…U.S. staffers who are approved to work remotely until Jan. 1, 2021 to update the company on where they plan to base themselves, at which point their salaries will be adjusted to reflect the local cost of living.
SWEs are nerdy, naive kids expecting high pay in low cost areas?
“The warm, sunny states with affordable housing and zero taxes will see an influx of educated, rich workers. States will need to cut taxes to keep up,” Chamath Palihapitiya, the chief executive of venture capital firm Social Capital and an early executive at Facebook, said on Twitter.
The biggest loser, he predicted, would be California.
Thought leaders are tripping over each other making bold hand wavy predictions. Anyone predicting the demise of real person sex yet? Would be a major disappointment if a year from now life returns to mostly boring pre-Covid normal.
As an thought exercise, think through how many Covid cases there must be a year, 2 years and 3 years from now for your favorite “permanent” changes in human behavior to take hold.
My prediction is the divorce rate will be spiked up when more people allow to work from home
Imagine now WFH people need spend 8hrs more to deal the spouses;)
Stocks and RE will go up, as they always do long term. Fed is printing $1m every 3 seconds. Government is sending people free checks. Money has to go somewhere.
Look at the other countries that are ahead of us on Covid. Look at China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea. Life mostly returns to normal, with some modifications. Everybody wears masks. Temperature checks at the door and free and fast testing available to everyone. But other than that it’s life as the boring usual. Kids go back to school. Adults go back to offices.
poops? Needles?
expecting high pay in low cost areas?
It depends on the progress of DNA modification and cloning 
