Property taxes changes have little affect. Supply and demand is key. Raise property taxes and force out the old people that built the BA. Those people will just be replaced by newcomers. Won’t happen because the old folks have the political power…the older generation is starting to leave again. Prices are so high they can go anywhere and live off their sale of their primary BA home. Will have the same effect as Prop 13 repeal.
Plus the boomer die off is accelerating. Already down to 72m from 78m . Down to 15m in 30 years. So about 2m a year are dying off. Should increase property tax revenues as newbies buy their houses.
The estimates vary but demographic change will increase property tax revenues. As 200k CA boomers die off per year. That is more than the number of houses built every year.
The estimated 78.8 million baby boomers counted at the peak — including those who later immigrated to the U.S. — are beginning to face death in larger numbers and at a more frequent pace. A Pew Research Center report in April stated that the number of boomers had decreased to 74.9 million in 2015, and that “by midcentury, the boomer population will dwindle to 16.6 million.” In the same report, it was noted that millennials — those born between 1981 and 1998 — have replaced boomers as the largest generation. They now number 75.4 million.
On average between 1980 and 2010, the state built about 120,000 new housing units per year, when up to 230,000 were needed to keep pace with growing population and changing demand, such as the desire to live in cities near jobs and transit. That demand has risen sharply over the past 10 years. The state now needs 180,000 new housing units per year, according to state housing officials, and it is building less than 80,000 annually on average.