How Trump has handled the pandemic

[Terri]

@manch

No one buying guns and bullets? Shoot down anyone coughing within 10 feet, Rambo style!

Dude. This is California. You can’t admit to having a gun here. Or to voting for Trump. That would be worse than having the coronavirus.

[Elt1]

Ruger stock up 6% today. Hard to find pure guns and ammo stocks

[manch]

You really think there are only 100 cases in the US?Trump’s CDC has been slow to test people. Seattle is now the epicenter.

[hanera]

@manch

You really think there are only 100 cases in the US?

You mean can’t trust data from USA?

Well, Dr Fauci implies that there are more than 10x infected than confirmed cases not identified because they are asymptomatic or very mild symptoms.

[ww13]

They don’t test people that have been exposed. They quarantine them.

[harriet]

Why do you need to find a government to trust Evaluate the situation yourself and never blindly follow what the government tells you. I thought we already talked about this elsewhere.

[manch]

Trusting the data means just that: see whether they intentionally misreported. What’s happening in the US is more akin to negligence. CDC simply didn’t test enough people, as the UC Davis case shows.

Do I trust American data more than Chinese ones? Yes, I do. We have a free, hyperactive press here that’s very keen on exposing every mistake Trump makes.

[hanera]

@manch

We have a free, hyperactive press here that’s very keen on exposing every mistake Trump makes.

You mean manufacture fake news and conspiracy theories, and dramatize what is happening?

@manch

What’s happening in the US is more akin to negligence. CDC simply didn’t test enough people, as the UC Davis case shows.

Thanks for the coverup theory. Still using tainted glasses and yardstick. You need a pair of new glasses to see the world objectively.

[Terri]

@manch

You really think there are only 100 cases in the US?Trump’s CDC has been slow to test people. Seattle is now the epicenter.

Trump doesn’t own the CDC. The CDC has a mind of its own.

Speaking of… the biggest problem with the CDC on most things is that it values the public’s feeling of safety over truth. And we’re seeing that now.

[hanera]

@manch

Many older people with existing conditions can’t survive this, no matter what they do.

Cross the Trump wall into Mexico and stay in an air-ventilated (no air-con) house.

@BA_lurker

We just need to ensure that we can get through the infection by taking care of our health or delay getting infected till vaccines start to come out towards the end of the year

Go to Singapore for a long vacation.

@BA_lurker

SARS died out. This virus is so close to SARS

SARS virus burns itself out in 8 months. Similarly, Covid-19 would not be around by Aug. Hang on for five months or go to Singapore.

@dioworld

Death Rate - the way they calculate death/infected
the way should be - death/ (death+recovered)

That formula is spreading around the web by some… The original formula of

Death rate = Total number of deaths/ Total number of infected

is correct!

However, the total number of infected is not equal to the number of confirmed cases. According to Dr Fauci, about 10x of that number is asymptomatic or has mild symptoms i.e. These guys will survive. So current death rate is too high, should be lower by a factor of 10.

The formula floated in the web assumes those who are confirmed cases but not dead or recovered yet, would have the same deaths/(deaths + recovered) ratio which is not true. Most of the confirmed but not serious cases recover eventually. If one want to scare the public a bit, can replace number of deaths by number of deaths + number of serious cases. The denominator can stay as confirmed cases just to scare the public - should be 10x if we believe Dr Fauci.

[ww13]

I came to the same conclusion to take a long break in Singapore, but can I get there safely without contracting it?

[Terri]

@hanera

However, the total number of infected is not equal to the number of confirmed cases. According to Dr Fauci, about 10x of that number is asymptomatic or has mild symptoms i.e. These guys will survive. So current death rate is too high, should be lower by a factor of 10.

This is the crux of the question. It’s not clear to me what the actual infection rate is. I don’t know that factor of 10 is correct. Certainly that’s not the case on the Princess ship. Even if everyone had come down with it, some asymptomatically, it would be factor of 5.

[Terri]

@hanera

https://apple.news/APoyDztd2Tqu4syELJHUcRA

Soon after the virus surfaced in China, the C.D.C. got to work on its own test. “Generally, C.D.C. provides these tests for the world,” said Dr. Frieden.

But German researchers were devising their own test, which was quickly adopted by the World Health Organization for distribution around the world.

After the C.D.C.’s version turned out to be flawed, the agency continued to pursue it, despite the fact that another diagnostic test was already in wide use.

Confirmed my suspicions that CDC can’t swallow their pride and have a not-invented-here syndrome. Germany one up CDC.

The thing that’s most frustrating is that the CDC failure is going to get blamed on Trump and nothing will get fixed. Maybe Trump’s staff cuts are part of the problem, but you’d think they should have it down EXACTLY what to do in an emergency like this and be able to do it regardless of who is in power. I have a feeling they would’ve botched it under Obama as well, but because it’ll get blamed on Trump, they won’t fix their issues and next time we have a pandemic, they’ll botch it yet again.

[BA_lurker]

Trump gutted the infectious and pandemic response group that was set up during the Ebola response under Obama last year. It is right to place the blame on him. Especially with sidelining the NIH team to lead the response and using political leadership to front end everything (Pompeo initially and now Pence). Pence contributed to the AIDS epidemic in Indiana when he was a governed since he used religion rather then science to manage the issue. Consistent bad decision making by Trump.

Also Azhar the HHS is a lobbyist and not a medical professional. He is spending his time having political fights with the lady running Medicare and Medicaid because that’s how trump likes his people (fighting each other and worshipping him). Trump built a culture of fear and loyalty only to himself rather then competence. What do you expect?

[hanera]

I recall the clinical tests for Remdesivir are conducted for medium serious to very serious cases. Those less serious recovered by themselves anyway, no need special treatment. 53829/80556 = 66.8% recovered so far, pretty good progress, did Remdesivir help?

There are 5737 serious cases currently, and people in the serious category are still dying at a daily rate of 30/5737 = 0.5%. Hopefully these are not people who have taken Remdesivir.

I am wondering whether Jim Cramer knew the progress of the clinical trials* and is just waiting for the official report which he doesn’t know when it would be released. Is not like him during Dotcom era where he switched to bearish, he is getting his hands cut grabbing the falling knife. I am wondering whether once the report is out that Remdesivir is indeed a cure, what would happen? Market explodes upwards and GILD to the moon? GILD is performing very well already. AFAIK, GILD is ramping up the production of Remdesivir, how high I don’t know.

Jim Cramer knew Larry Kudlow, and WH knew the progress, is it why Trump is so confident? but miscalculated that Seattle has crap practices.

[manch]

You can buy a container’s worth and resell to Trump. He’s desperate to ramp us tests.

[BA_lurker]

If you are wondering why everything we are doing is a cluster. It can be placed on the feet of the president who seems to be always focused on optics rather then what’s effective:

Trump's mismanagement helped fuel coronavirus crisis

some select choice quotes

s coronavirus infections rapidly multiplied aboard a cruise ship marooned off the coast of California, health department officials and Vice President Mike Pence came up with a plan to evacuate thousands of passengers, avoiding the fate of a similar cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, which became a petri dish of coronavirus infections. Quickly removing passengers was the safest outcome, health officials and Pence reasoned.

But President Donald Trump had a different idea: Leave the infected passengers on board — which would help keep the number of U.S. coronavirus cases as low as possible.

But Trump has added to that disorganization through his own decisions. Rather than empower a sole leader to fight the outbreak, as President Barack Obama did with Ebola in 2014, he set up a system where at least three different people — Azar, Vice President Mike Pence and coronavirus task force coordinator Debbie Birx — can claim responsibility.

Trump’s aides mocked and belittled Azar as alarmist, as he warned the president of a major threat to public health and his own economic agenda, said three people briefed on the conversations. Some officials argued that the virus would be no worse than the flu.

“The boss has made it clear, he likes to see his people fight, and he wants the news to be good,” said one adviser to a senior health official involved in the coronavirus response. “This is the world he’s made.”

Trump’s unpredictable demands and attention to public statements — and his own susceptibility to flattery — have created an administration where top officials feel constantly at siege, worried that the next presidential tweet will decide their professional future, and panicked that they need to regularly impress him.

[manch]

Yes that’s the biggest problem: medical system collapse. That’s why Trump saying it’s no big deal is so dumb. If even 0.1% of the entire country needs hospitalization society will collapse.

[Elt1]

I think Trump should remove all tariffs to stimulate the economy instead of getting rid of payroll taxes.

[manch]

@Elt1

I think Trump should remove all tariffs to stimulate the economy instead of getting rid of payroll taxes.

He should but he won’t. Anyway Trump is toast.