I'll just rent and vent I guess :-) Newcomer observations

Ok, I take “offense” to this statement :slight_smile:… explain please. You just said this is a great, great place to live…yet you plan to move. Why? (You prob don’t know, but I am an SF native and probably the loudest cheerleader for the Bay Area as anyone…)

Because he/she wants to take advantage of the school system here for his kids? Which also explains why my offer of a $400k house in BA doesn’t sound appealing to him/her…

I am being logical. I think house prices will likely be higher. I don’t think the return will be worth tying up a huge % of my net worth in a relatively non-liquid asset. TIPS are also guaranteed to be higher in 10 years, I won’t be buying those either. It’s all about the relative performance of different asset classes.


OK. That’s fair.

We had our kids late. I’ll probably be retiring in 10 years. There are many other great places to live at much lower cost if you don’t NEED to be here for your job. I love the Bay Area, but if you are retired and have no family here, there are many other choices. And like I said, the water is too cold! :cry:


What if kids decide to go to college here or work here after college? Just throwing it out here :slight_smile:

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Ok, but what if lil Johnny and Jane make it to Cal or Stanford (please, no postings about the order…)??? Are these not fine institutions of higher learning??? Then, you can stay and enjoy our frigid waters…:slight_smile:

I think with global warming the beach here is going to be just right in 10 years… :slight_smile:


Stocks - (high risk & high volatility - higher returns)
Housing -(low risk & low volatility - lower returns) + Provides place to live (Primary home)

This tells me for a Primary home I would not look at it as only an asset class.

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sea rising in the Bay Area???

we’ll still be here when they apply… they’ll want to go as far away from us as possible… so no worries :grin:

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Uh oh… Foster City and Alviso you guys better watch out!!!

Correcto… see my post elsewhere about the bump in Outer Sunset home pricing to now over 1M…

Anyone has a good explanation why rent relative to the house price is so low in Bay Area? Is it limited by income?

Interest rate has been in a down trend for a few decades, likely to continue.

That was my plan when I arrived in 2002, I bought. Still here, btw.

That’s because you made $$ from the stock market. Let’s hope this poor soul can end up the same way you did…

IMO prices are at/near the peak for this cycle. Nasdaq is looking topped out, trend is more people leaving than coming to the bay. Don’t get too bummed. Wait for a drop…maybe 20% (that is about what it was in 2001 and 2008) and be prepared to max your budget out and buy when prices do drop.

I think the bay area could get hit harder than it did in 2008. There has been a huge tech boom here that softened the 2008 recession in the bay. Google, Apple and others were growing like crazy through the last recession. If we have a recession more like 2001 (tech bubble popping), things could really take a hit here in a way that hasn’t been seen in awhile.

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if this happens, would things go back to “normal”, where you can make an offer that is non-cash, 20% down mortgage, no overbidding… or is the market like that even during bad times, just with less people participating. What was it like during the other slowdowns?

Last downturn there were crazy financing requirements that overcorrected for the mortgage crisis. I don’t think that will happen this time. But there are always lots of people with cash buying properties here so it’s unlikely to be “normal” but if you have a steady job and 20% down it is easier to find something in a downturn. It still won’t be your dream home, there maybe overbidding, but you’ll probably make some money next boom/bust cycle.

Also when it comes to overbidding, I wouldn’t put much weight in list prices. Figure out what the going $/sq ft is in the neighborhood you like (can use redfin to see recent purchases) and use that to ballpark what the price will actually be or you’ll be continually disappointed by the Deleon’s that underprice to start a bidding war.

If your kids have 8-10 years of school left, then odds are you won’t be able to keep your same rental that whole time. Then you’ll have to deal with the stress of trying to find another rental in the same school district for your kids. If you buy, then you don’t have to worry about that. I think that’s a major reason people buy.

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