Will house price correct if inventory remains tight? Will house price correct if Nasdaq goes up for another couple thousand points?
Not saying inventory will stay tight or Nasdaq will reach 10K in the next 2 to 3 years. Just playing a couple what-if scenarios. I have a feeling where the general trend is headed but I suck at timing. So I don’t even try to time it. Just buy whenever I have money.
Well, I think it is wise to be never too overconfident that the gravy train will continue. My good family friend who is a big time flipper even said to me the other day that he thinks it is not exactly the best time to buy. I am exchanging, so what inflated pricing I get will be transferred over to the new property anyway so not particularly worried but there is always the chance that the market heads South and I could be holding a slightly less valuable asset just when I am about to retire. One needs to always look at all exits to a building even if it is not burning at the moment…
If you believe that market is probably at the peak (it does not matter whether you are right or wrong, or let’s forget about that debate), you can still buy a house with 0 down or 5% down. That way, you transfer the risk to the bank and any upside gain is only yours.
Investment property remember? Minimum 25% down typically…
My case: 35% down!!! I can’t even get a 25% down anymore given my complicated portfolio.
Good news is that I don’t intent to buy anymore rentals from here on!!!
Good, one less Asian to compete with…
Only about 2% of homes change hands a year. Thus, only 2% of people need to willing and able to buy to keep prices high. Given the speed of selling and number of offers, we have quite a bit over 2% that’s willing and able. Prices won’t go down unless inventory goes up by 5-10x or the number of buyers decreases by 5-10x.
Oh, you are quitting buying and still pursuade others to buy?
OP is considering primary home purchase, not a rental
No more rentals but will continue to flip!!!
But anyhow, of course I would keep persuading others to buy even if I’m done buying 
Investors should desire steady predictable markets. They should not desire hot rising markets. Rising markets introduce a new element of risk, increases competition, etc.
As for timing the markets, eventually you will be wrong and you will be right. What’s the point.
During the last downturn, multiples offer were still the norm.
Finally, I don’t have the same sentiment as SFDB about the impending home pricing correction. I’m just not going to spend my time and energy worrying about something like this.
I am not expecting a huge correction by any stretch of the imagination. I just think when the herd is heading in one direction only (housing, housing, housing) smart people like us need to at least stop and analyze whether or not the herd is heading towards a cliff or not. I will always be bullish on this region as it is too desirable to be down for long but that doesn’t mean a momentary hiccup can’t happen. It has happened before…
You destroy the theory of low to zero downpayment, and get a phenomenal return on RE because of the leverage. Just keep buying with low downpayment and lenders would recklessly lend you money.
[quote=“wuqijun, post:71, topic:2600”]
No more rentals but will continue to flip!!!
[/quote]Didn’t get the impression you do flipping.
I’m a late boomer when it comes to flipping. Because I used to believe in a buy and hold forever strategy. But I’ve started flipping couple years ago to test the waters. I started small, only flipping entry level homes in Antioch. Now I’m onto flipping million dollar homes…
If you use 20% down, your return would be 500% in 10 years if it’s a double.
If you put 0% down, your return seems to be Infiniti. And your financial risk is zero. In California, purchase mortgage is non recourse. It’s hard for me to understand your super fear of losing principal. 0% down would solve your problem.
Shoreview in San Mateo has $800k houses and warm water…I used to waterski competition buoys in the San Mateo lagoon…All the reservoirs have warm water…The delta too…Even Alameda has a warm water beach on the bay…Newcomers need to adjust to all the options for water sports on the bay…World class kite boarding in San mateo and Rio Vista in warm water…
Another thing to remember—The waters off San Francisco are infested with great white sharks…Go inland and there is plenty of warm safe water…In fact we have miles of beaches in Tahoe and the water is already 68…as warm as LA beaches
I wish I could do that here. Apparently using bank financing is the kiss of death in the bidding process. Doing what you suggest with rental houses in areas with higher rent/price ratio may be the way to go indeed
Not really, I’d say less than 10% of the SV homes are bought using all cash. People do need to finance even in SV!!!
You need a strong cash position to be considered a strong bidder. What you actually put down to close is a different discussion between you and your mortgage person.