Impact of election on market

“Like a miracle…” :wink:

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As far as CNN and MSNBC are concerned - yes. If Biden is elected Covid coverage will cease.

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/biden-best-position-challenger/index.html

The three challengers in the polling era (Jimmy Carter in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992) who defeated incumbents have all been trusted more than the incumbent to deal with what Americans thought was the nation’s most important problem. None, however, were trusted by more than 50% of the voters.

Today, Biden has a huge advantage over Trump when it comes to the pandemic. The clear majority (59%) of likely voters in the last CNN poll said Biden would better be able to handle the outbreak. Just 38% said Trump would do a better job than Biden.

Biden may handle the pandemic by closing the country down. Most of us would rather be dead than live in his socialist dystopia. We wil see. But this is a clear election choice of freedom over restrictions and capitalism over socialism. In reality covid19 only kills HONDAs. If you are a HONDA stay home. 99% will survive… vote for freedom

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I’m calling it right now, but if they get elected, Kamala’s going to start talking about forced vaccination… because it’ll no longer be Trumps vaccine, it’ll be Biden’s. Hypocrite.

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I have a simple solution. Anyone who’d rather have the government runs things need to spend the day at the DMV. That would solve the illusion that the government running things would be better.

I really don’t get how successful people can wish for more government. Unless what they really want is more government for others while their own life doesn’t change. That’s about as racist as it gets, since it’s saying you don’t think minorities can take care of themselves so the government should do it.

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If Biden wins and Senate and House are also Dems, where does the market go? Thoughts?

The market will follow the Fed. And seems to looking forward to the Dems $2.4 trillion stimulus

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Yeah, but the Dems with majority in both houses and the Presidency can roll back the corporate tax cuts. That will IMO hit the stock market negatively.

Unless the Dems get 60 senate seats the Republicans can block at lot of legislation.

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60 unlikely, 51 possible.

They can still pass used using reconciliation, i.e. the same way the TCJA was passed to begin with.

This is what everyone is banking on. Enjoy the rally while it lasts. It’s hard to find any historic examples of this sort of thing ending well. Actually impossible. You might want to stock up on tangibles as well as equities.

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Another asset class being pushed.

“JP Morgan said debt sold by sub-investment grade businesses, or junk-rated debt, was the only “compelling” asset in the corporate credit market under a Democratic sweep chiefly because those bonds offered enough income to offset any losses from rising rates.”

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I missed something–since when has Abraham Lincoln become a bad guy? And remind me what Theodore Roosevelt did. I guess I missed that too.

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These guys doing the rioting are leftist goons and thugs, their violence is supported politically by all the TDS afflicted .

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It’s time for it to stop. I get that someone died, but this is just ridiculous and stupid. Just wait until another statue falls on another protestor. Then two people will die. Then can we “hey rioting has to stop, someone just died”?

Great read. Give some big pictures on what to expect, and yes, how Trump can still win. Also some insights into the shifting landscape in American politics.

These two passages stuck out at me. Did not know Texas is actually very urban. Heard on 538 Arizona’s votes are dominated by Phoenix and its suburbs, thus also surprisingly (sub)urban.

Do you think the Biden campaign should go all in on Texas?

Yes, absolutely. It might be a cycle or two away, but something like eighty per cent of its vote is cast in the big cities. There’s almost no rural or small-town vote cast in Texas anymore. And so when you’re in a universe where the suburbs are trending so hard against Republicans, it makes a sea change in Texas politics. And that’s what you’ve seen there. I don’t think Ted Cruz winning by three points was just because people don’t like Ted Cruz. I think there are fundamental shifts going on in that state that are reflective of national politics.

Other experts I have talked to look at these polls that seem more optimistic about Texas than other states polling similarly, like Ohio, if the race is tied going into Election Day.

Yeah. Ohio is a state where a large portion of the vote is cast in rural and small-town areas. It’s a big part of why the upper Midwest is trending Republican. There aren’t enough big cities to offset that. But Texas is all big cities. It is all Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, increasingly Austin. So as big cities and suburban areas go blue, Texas could get very blue, very fast.

I thought by your standards you can’t comment on Texas because you don’t live or work there.

Here is the new standard for Houston housing in a flood plane. Cheap fast and above high water.

Could be built in the mud flats around the bay with boat access. Solve the housing shortage for the SF homeless

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