Higher inflation is good for those with debt
Provided you can earn higher return from the debt 
. The assumption in that statement is you can invest the proceeds from the debt at higher rate of return.
Agree since there is a correlation between tech stocksā share price and RE prices in SFBA.
I have no idea. The drop is very deep too. Amazon is currently down 3.6%. Thatās after yesterdayās drop too. Has been falling for 2 days in a row.
If trump goes to trade war with the world over steel and textile, we stand to lose over the stuff we make like chips, routers and iPhones.
May be because these companies carry large debt and since banks and interest rates are on rise, it will affect their margins?
I donāt think tech is particularly loaded with debt.
Red stocks:
Tech
Utilities (electric, water)
Telecom
Consumer staples
Medical REITs & Insurance
Solar & related
Green stocks:
Garbage collection
Pharmaceutical
BioTech
Natural resources (mining, fertilizers)
Capital equipment
Industrials
Retail
Sort of disclaimer: I am not RE pro, but I have some thoughts in my head from economic point of view.
I am looking to buy RE for primary residence in bay area and before election I had a plan according to which if Hillary would win I will be looking to buy this coming winter since dollar devaluation will continue and I donāt want to loose my savings value.
If Trump will win I most likely will delay my purchase since fed will start increasing % rate which impact buyers who wanted to buy with loan so RE prices will need to adjust to this factor, and from tax point of view itās better to pay higher % rate on loan but with cheaper RE prices than pay small % rate on loan with overpriced RE prices, assuming that the payment amount will be close to each other in both cases.
Also Trump stands for strong dollar which means a lot of things but my main point here is that there will be no more cheap dollars for our international friends and that will limit some of them, since all cash offer is not gonna be good idea anymore with strong dollar, we actually can see that shift starting now by looking at US bonds market - after Trump election investors started to move their money back to dollar and US bonds.
And I didnāt mentioned even his position about H1B visas to limit them - that probably will effect bay area more than anything else since we have here a huge number of people with that type of visa which work for IT companies, have high pay salaries, and own houses so can you image if their IT companies will be unable to prolong their visas how many of them had to move back to their countries, this will crash RE. Personally I donāt think it is possible but who knows.
An the last thing - I donāt know if RE prices peaked but Iām pretty sure that base rate is bottomed and will be growing very soon with all consequences for RE.
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Could those who are working in the IT industry shed some light on this? What is the sentiments of your colleagues on H1B think about job security and willingness to buy RE? Iām clueless since Iām unemployed. Can only share from a UC perspective, my son said many girls cried openly, afraid that their parents and relatives would be deported.
I think there is confusion about ādeportedā word - deported can only be illegals, those who are legally in US can not be deported. If you are illegal then well ā¦ you have your head on your shoulders if you want to stay here then you have to find the way how to do it legally if you canāt then go to immigration lawyer. I have some friends who are illegal here, some went lawyer and got legal status, some used other loopholes in our system, some havenāt done anything yet and keep partying, do I feel sorry for illegals - not really, thatās their choice. I donāt see any problem here.
In IT everyone is legal btw.
Yea, but there is sentiments about future visa though. A lot of Canadians works in Bay Area with TN visa which was granted as part of NAFTA agreement, so if Trump is tearing that, it would have impact on future visa. Someone at my work confirmed with lawyers and he shared that it would only impact to future visa (not sure about renewal), but not immediately to the existing TN visa holders. I am guessing H1B might have similar issue, who know.
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Thatās the kind of uncertainty that will drag on our economy. If handled badly, like if there is some massive manhunt to round up the >10M undocumented immigrants we will be in a recession in no time.
Strong dollar does not work if he plans to bring manufacturing in-house from an export perspective (look at Japan). Somethingās gotta give.
True, or assuming your income goes up with inflation. Luckily real estate usually keeps up with inflation so if you take out an 80% fixed loan and the property appreciates 1000%, you are sitting pretty even if the dollar depreciated 90%.
Maybe because the middle states are sending a message that they are tired of the coasts and want to take us down
Nasdaq debt to equity is 0.6446 whereas S&p is .11. So maybe a little high? I just looked these up so take with grain of salt
I should clarify by tech I mean big IT companies like FANG. I have no idea about biotech for example. Whatās the debt level of Amazon and apple?
Interestingly, because Trump ran as a Republican, he might be able to get away with giving citizenship to some of them. In the past, Republicans had been vehemently opposing a Democrat doing so for fears it would boost the Democrat vote. They might be more likely to support it now.
The other thing that absolutely needs to happen is easier visas for farm workers. Itās pretty clear that American laborers arenāt interested in working on farms, and the foreign workers keep the food cheap, but every year, the farmers have a tough time getting Visas for their workers. Itās especially important that they get them ON TIMEāthe government cannot drag its feet for 8 weeksāthe farms have to plant when they have to plant and 8 weeks in a place like Boston is like half the growing season! Boston had a major issue when their Jamaican workers couldnāt get their visas a couple of years agoāpeople who had been coming to the same farm for 20 yearsātheyāre not even ācheap laborāātheyāre experienced workers who know exactly what to do. Unfortunately, itās not that easy to smuggle people in from Jamaica, but in CA, the farmers give up and just take the illegal labor because itās not worth fighting. Americans need to understand that their cheap produce relies on these workers.
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Surprise! I have been reading more on Trump and thinking about the next four years. Canāt help it. I think what @Terri said about Trumpās immigration policy makes a lot of sense, in an āOnly Nixon can go to Chinaā kinda way.
This article goes over the same points in more details:
http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/what-will-be-the-significance-of-mr-trump/
On immigration, I agree with Tyler that Mr. Trumpās border control efforts may prove mostly symbolic. I do not think he needs to make much progress on the wall. He could simply ask ICE to make a regular public display of rudely and forcefully deporting people. I am cynical enough to guess that if every night on television there are scenes of suffering and humiliated deportees, this will satisfy the anti-immigrant crowd without having to build the wall. (For those of you new to this blog, I am against causing suffering and humiliation among deportees. I am not even in favor of deportation in the first placeāif it were up to me, the most we would do to deter anyone wanting to take up residence here is charge some sort of one-time fee.)
Assuming Mr. Trump succeeds in creating the impression that our border controls are tight, some of his supporters might countenance giving long-time undocumented residents a path to citizenship. What is unacceptable to those who make an issue of illegal immigration is giving a path to citizenship without much tighter controls.
Thatās right up the alley with Trumpās reality TV skill. Make a big show about illegals being roughed up and his rabid fans will be satisfied. Wall is already mostly there by the way. Just needs a bit patching up. Then he may even be able to give people citizenship, quietly.
I am staying in Woodside with a bluebood Republican. .the kind that hates Trump. .Very wealthy. ā¦was planning on selling a lot of stock it Hillary was electedā¦But now that we have a full Republican slate and the possibility of a conservative court for decades he is very optimistic on stocksā¦The feeling is that Trump really not caring if he gets reelected could get a lot of things done quickly before getting kicked out in 4 yearsā¦The hope is the corporate tax rate could be reduced to say 15% and trillions would be repatriated ā¦Capital gains tax reduced to increase investment. ā¦Inheritance tax eliminatedā¦On and onā¦So maybe a Republican agenda will get approvedā¦Or Trump will get bogged down on his own personal agenda like Obama did and get nothing doneā¦I am willing to wait and seeā¦I figure Trump has 100 days to prove himselfā¦Plus he needs to throw the liberals a boneā¦like increasing min wage, immigration reform, infrastructure spending and revising Obamacare not killing itā¦Pretty hard to do for a sane Presidentā¦pretty impossible for Trumpā¦One thing for sureā¦His ideas are inflationary. ā¦could be good for stocks and real estate in moderation, bad for bonds. .after all he likes debtā¦
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