Impact of Trump Win on Bay Area Real Estate

What do you guys think would be the impact of Trump presidency on bay area real estate ?

I think a Trump win insures the recession I have predicted since 2012…He will lead off with an anti trade agenda. His mandate is from the flyover states. …They plan to extract their revenge against the coastal states…Silcion Valley is envied and hated in middle America…Trade barriers will hurt everyone. …Plus immigration restrictions will hurt the Valley even more…Highend real estate is already stalled, condos next, the shfs. .


Republicans still need lobbying money . Would they be taking such drastic steps ?
Markets are up 200 points today. Wasn’t expecting that .

NEITHER WAS I!!! Darn it!


Does he not need senate and congress to pass any bills? What can he do on his own? Not sure how much can he do trhu executive actions on trade, I believe some immigration related stuff he can sign executive orders and such.

Congress is already anti immigrant and trade…He just needs to arm wrestle the senate and stack the supreme court…He will have to move fast…At most he has 2 years…worst case 100 days…then the wheels of bureaucracy will roll over him… but maybe the market is hoping he will get nothing done?Dow up 266 points

So what is the impact on RE in SFBA? Sell or buy or hold?

I agree with @elt1. Trump can weigh down the economy. Tipping the balance to favor the backward facing part of the economy in the Midwest, means we the forward facing part will get the short end.

How many steel workers are there? How many work in chemical plants? Paper mills? Sewing clothes? Trump owes his victory to these displaced blue collar workers. If he puts up tariff on these things China can easily retaliate by imposing tariffs on stuff that we in Silicon Valley makes, like chips and routers.

Deporting illegal immigrants sounds good in theory. But when you realize there are over 20M of them and you think thru the logistics it doesn’t sound so good anymore. These people live in the fringe of society. They can’t get mortgage, they can’t get bank accounts, they don’t pay income taxes. Not that they don’t want to though. Imagine if we can recruit them into the formal system? Boy, Bay Area RE will soar. But now they are more scared than ever. They futures are highly uncertain. That depresses the economic output of 20M very hard working people.

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Why would I believe you when you fail in your 400 EVs landslide forecast :wink:? Betting against your view seem to be a good bet :joy:

No reason to believe me, or anyone here. :slight_smile: Do your homework.

Even I don’t trust myself in trading. I have some mechanic rule that I slavishly follow, regardless of how I feel that day.

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Careful here. Some egoists may not agree with the statement.

:slight_smile: If I only want to listen my own opinion I wouldn’t set up this forum would I?

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The next recession will come from an unexpected Black Swan event…The Trump win could be that event…

There is now a high degree of uncertainty in the system. Maybe it will turn out OK. Maybe not. But instead of a steady path we now have something highly uncertain.

If Trump goes ahead with the infrastructure spending and low tax plan will result in higher inflation and higher interest rates. What do you think impact of that will be ? Higher inflation -> Higher RE prices but higher interest rate could cause a downturn in RE.

As of right now tech is crashing. Let’s have that figured out first. :slight_smile:

Predicting policy is a gamble. Playing with house money, fine. Playing with someone else’s money, fine. I forgot who said it here, but waiting until the event occurs works well too. A lot of “informed” people were in shock over the results, and that says enough.

One uncertainty has disappeared and that is who was going to be next inline. The race was something that occupied people’s attention. Get back to work!

Just FYI mortgage rates are going up the second day in the row after Trump’s victory adding 0.1-0.15% daily.
I think if someone was planning to sell any RE in the nearest future then they should move quicker - things are changing fast.

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Why is that, fear of the anti trade rhetoric?

No such thing as house money. Once you won it, is your money :grin:. Btw, can you give me some money to gamble? Win, 50:50.