Indices & ETFs

Not panicky. Just enjoying a good show.

The show has not begun. Wait for the 2nd DTK red alert. That’s the most critical signal. No red alert, no show.

@manch

Since you have bad memory and probably don’t read too… I have cut n paste the most important Panda tweet… you should treat SPX 4256 as a tentative/ temporary/ placement (not sure what is the right word) as it is not that critical as to the exact value, is the 2nd DTK red alert that is MOST CRITICAL.

According to that tweet, crash to happen 20 calendar days after the next (i.e. 2nd) DTK. We have yet to have 2nd DTK red alert. No need to panic… l recalled telling you, let me search this forum, a difficult task…

Screen Shot 2021-04-30 at 8.26.43 AM

Found… posted 14 days ago…

Btw, you may still have time to liquidate your portfolio before the crash… stop looking for evidence to be otherwise… running in a circle like this won’t help… Btw, I have two trading accounts moved to 100% cash already… I am slow, not very nimble, have to go to cash early and leave cash on the table… only left one account with some position, this account is 80% cash… As for those potential 10x-100x stocks, I have decided to sell to 1 yes 1 stock only instead of $2k each, also sold U down from 500 shares to 100 shares, sold TDOC and ZM to $10k instead of $20k-$30k. Now I am ready for the crash :slight_smile:

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@manch

Almost time to short the market… but don’t jump the gun… hitting SPX 4256 is not a sufficient condition to short… don’t know? ask JC. Always wait for confirmation. Anyhoo, need a dive to SPX 4120… don’t be fixated at the price, general price behavior is more important… we want to see one quick down and an up wave… then wait for 2nd DTK red alert…

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-02/rich-americans-fleeing-tax-hikes-may-turbocharge-shift-to-etfs

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Since I am very bored… looking through old posts…

Below is posted on Feb 26…

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2 months later and 25 days ago…
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Didn’t read???

There are plenty of places we can see possible crash/recession…etc…similarly, plenty of bullish talks.

Mar-Apr 2020, I made a big failure to gain by believing other blogs. Same way, I take Panda’s update and use it with grain of salt.

I am completely with my own algorithm and my prediction based on it. It always changes time, direction which I totally follow to make progress.

I do not care whether he spots first or you spot first, but I only care whether I am right on trades and whether I am making money or not…in short that is all I do now.

Nowadays, I need lot of time to data analysis, programming etc, do not have time to blog…

Looks to me that I came back here wrongly…Trying to stay away…Good Bye…

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The problem is that market crashes (and the bubble) do not mean the same thing they did in past. Markets were expected to recover on its own merit. But, now things are different. As soon as some crash happens, someone will turn the printer at the FED basement on. Market will recover and everyone will be happy. The market itself is broken and lost ability to correctly price itself and the risk.

Screw around to kill time :slight_smile: Finally, he uses the word, “running flat” :rofl: Very common for current bull run from Mar 2020.

I have been watching TV serials, movies and tending to my backyards and garden.

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Bollinger band of SPX is tightening, so a blowoff top is on the table now. I like blowoff top… a fake down and then a blowoff top…

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Bollinger band of QQQ is also tightening… BTO a few calls for a giggle… may be a little too early… we’ll see. Just a puny sum… $1k… If I am right, today is a fake down, so should follow by a blowoff top, right?

If I guess right, We are already inside recession that started last week Thursday , just after AAPL results are announced !

With Dems, it is not easy to print money as they do not do it normally. They are not for stock market, but they will do when country is in issue such as mass lay offs starts again !

If they do not do, people of USA will suffer, highest impacted will be poorest people of USA (not wealthy) ! They were not prepared for such issues.

Current team sitting at branch, cutting the tree at wrong time by imposing all taxes on already strained business economy !

BTW: I have been locked out since yesterday with this password message !

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Recent QEs (like QE1 series) started during Obama regime. Democrats print money for Three reasons: First, They are fools. They do not understand the money supply and its bad effect.
Second: they hope To put idle resources (the unemployed people) to work and give a false sense of job security. Third: to help their cronies in finance and banking so that they do not go bankrupt due to bad debts they accumulated during the boom times. The third reason is most important reasons. Not only do the financial institutions accumulate bad debts during boom times, but so does the government. So, money printing is a good way to kill debts. (and someone else’s savings gets whacked in the process)

It is shame that the government has killed savings and then pretends to help the poor. The biggest help government can do is to protect cash. Poor people save well. Loss of savings is why you see the poor and middle class in distress.

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Closing in SPX 4120 (fake down), will it blowoff to SPX 4256?

The only issue is the so-called wave b seems to have five waves! Should be only three waves. We’ll see.

In stock market anything can happen any time, I do not dispute. With Billions of FAANMG on sale by banks, I doubt. I feel last Thursday SPX 4211 is max !

I am sure you were not here during 2006-2011 period. All of the above are not correct.

Do you know what happened with VIAC - Archegos issue? If not, read it Bloomberg - Are you a robot?.

Multiply VIAC-Archegos issues with 50000 times, we were in such situation in 2008. More than 250 banks went bankrupt and AIG went bankrupt…1000000s of foreclosure, no open house for six months as there were no money to lend for mortgage…

It is too big topic - looks like you were not aware of it. Any way, it is beyond my subject - as I do nto want to recall past.

I am tracking Panda’s view. You should tweet your comment in his blog :slight_smile:

On Mar 9, I said this…

4 days ago, I said this…

As I told @erth
Jumping into discussion without reading past posts is not respectful. You are making people do the work of telling you what have happened/ said. You should be the one spending time to read past posts.

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Looks like most stocks are in deep red except guns and ammo… my defensive stocks

I am not sure what is the point you are trying to make.
Are you suggesting FED should print money mindlessly?
And are you saying that excessive money printing has no adverse impact on savers and the purchasing power of currency?

@erth @jil

Both of you are talking at different frequency :slight_smile:

What I understood is this: @jil is saying that massive money printing that followed 2008 crash (QE1 2 3 4 etc) was justified because it saved humanity from some financial catastrophe. Really? I do not see but he can see it. If he is saying something else, you are right. I am not on same page as he is and I have not clue what he said.