yes, learning so much.
can I ask, where did you get that above picture?
Itâs my thinkorswim desktop client with VolumeProfile and TPOProfile turned on from studies section.
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Counter trend wave b might have been completed. Now is the decline, wave c. Refer to chart below.
SPX 3700 I think is QQQ 305.
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I am not the only who think the end is near. Master Wu thinks so too.
The chart below is my interpretation of what he said graphically. He is talking about retracing the impulse from 2011⌠need to check after market close as to why 2011. He predicts SPX would bottom at 78.6% retracement of that impulse. Btw, I was thinking QQQ should peak ~400, not sure is the equivalent level to SPX 4100.
This is not a financial advice to buy, sell or trade SPX. Shared for entertainment purpose.
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I do not understand what you and WU thinking, but looks to me market is destined to go down another big day Monday, prepared well for it now.
If that happens, Monday very likely the last drop. Otherwise, I assume yesterday was the bottom.
BTW: This is not a financial advice to buy, sell or trade any stocks. Shared for discussion purpose. Anything can go wrong whatever I guessed.
Can Master Wu beat Powellâs money printer? $120B getting printed every month.
He is not talking about day to day. Is a full prediction for the whole year 2021. Master Wu is super confident of himself.
Btw, I suspect youâre right about Monday. I have been selling into strength to raise cash for Monday buy buy buy.
Verdict is Dec 31, 2021. No point debating now. We can then laugh at Master Wu or regret not following his lead. Good enough entertainment for you?
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Just to be clear what we are taking about. What is Master Wuâs prediction for 2021?
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He is telling next 3 months up and then fall like recession to end by Mar 2022. He is predicting like Obama first term 2008-2009 period recession.
With Biden adding lot of tax solution (either personal or corp) and FED hinting rate hike possible in future, listen to his testimony, all money printing will be matched.
It is very likely possible scenario - having seen obamaâs first term with fed printing money !!
Anyway, if it corrects nicely on Monday, it is the last day for correction.
I see the value in WUâs point of view, he is predicting far horizon ahead. However, if market swings back to SPX 4100 by may, very likely chance of 20% decline thereafter if Corona continues and economy is not improving GDP level.
Dem & Biden tax pressure will introduce more complexityâŚ
If he true, he is the winner !
So Master Wu is basically saying S&P will get halved between May and end of 2021? I will be happy to take the other side.
Forgive my ignorance, but has the stock market ever gotten halved while
- Fed is actively printing ie QE
- promised to stick to zero rate and
- Federal government running fiscal stimulus?
Fed is buying bonds at a rate of 120B a month. So thatâs about 1.5T for the year. Biden fiscal stimulus is another 1.9T. And heâs talking about another infrastructure bill. Just for 2021 alone we have about 3.5T worth of new money, and zero Fed fund rate?
If given all that stock market still gets halved I guess logic doesnât work anymoreâŚ
All these started during Obama period reducing interest rateâŚetc, still went down 50%. They went up to 2.5T during the correction between 2008-2011, then extended to 4.5T.
The issue is WU or anyone can not 100% guarantee or foresee what will happen future - esp for that long period.
If WU is 100% correctly predicting, he will supersede Warren Buffet ! However, we can not discount any future waves, either upside or downside.
The entire banking system (trading side), wall street and HFTs are living with creating waves and making money out it.
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Obama started office in Jan 2009 and S&P bottomed in March that year. Basically one month after Obama announced his stimulus package. And that package was tiny and slow compared to Bidenâs.
Anyway we already had a crash last March. It hasnât even a full year yet. I donât know why people are all looking for one so soon.
Master Wu has said SPX 3670 next week or two, then bounce back up and ATH. Iâm not sure if I agree with Wuâs final prediction for year 2021, but I do agree there will be a huge surprise waiting for us near future. I think there will be couple of big catalysts for market to fall that big.
- Fed loses the control over inflation, meaning, the sudden inflation (economy opens up) will come as a shock and they wonât be able to control it without raising rates significantly.
- Yields creeping up due to lack of demand despite Fed buying bonds every month (already happening). This to me has a circular effect, the more fed prints to buy bond, the less demand it gets from outside, hence yields keeps creeping up along with sky high inflation that fed needs to raise rates for. Itâs a double whammy!
- Despite yields going up, commodity prices will go crazy due to inflation, doing the inverse thing and will move rates even further up.
Iâm no economist but I just thought about the worst case scenario with what I gathered from the internet. Any other insights would be helpful!
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If the Fed can finally get inflation moving thatâs a huge plus to me. Historically inflation has been good for the market. Everyone keep citing the 70s scenario but it was actually not too bad.
I think the inflation expectations have a lot to do with the commodity price run up. I suspect that has a lot to do with the service economy being shut down and people spending money on physical goods instead. Once the restaurants open and people can go to Disney parks again money will flow back to services. Inflation can only stick if wages go up. The $15 min wage just got killed. That takes a lot of the inflationary wind out of the sail IMO.
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SPX 3670 is just 3.6%away from current. If they take down Monday 3.5%-4% it satisfies. This one is easily understandable, but predicting ahead, way ahead, needs better tool and experience.
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I hope there would be a 50% drawdown though. Imagine all the discounts there will be on those secular growth namesâŚ
Probably the wrong thread but whatever. Many growth names are already in bear market compared to the broad market.
Noticed that AMZN and HD were down since 7/31. Decided to screen for what other R1000 stocks were. Hereâs a random assortment of names that qualify. S&P 500 is up 17.5% during the same time. No other insight here. Just was an interesting subset.
I own both. Disappointing. They both produce revenue and growth. I guess in the new economy investors only believe in momentum, fantasy and conviction. Dot Bomb 2.0
Who are the Nifty Fifty today. And how will they fail?
I think there are in correction (10% of below) and not bear market.
AMZN and HD are both down 2% while SPY up 18% since last July. So compared to SPY they are in bear market already.
That to me is reason why I donât believe we have a huge drawdown at this point. Many good quality companies are already in either corrections or bear market. The froth in tiny names like AMC and some random SPACâs has distorted peopleâs views.
AAPL is down 17% from ATH. Seriously?