Interesting quick look... OK, is this really uncommon around here?

Haven’t looked in a while, I was surprised to see this. My impression from what I heard in this forum and my own experience back then, this would have been unthinkable a year ago. But, a year ago was kind of the peak of the recent sycle… For those who know, how does this compare to previous slowdowns? Interested to know if this is really uncommon or not really. thanks

Peninsula, Millbrae to Palo Alto
$1M to $3M price range
Houses only
Active listings only
price reduced in the last 30 days: 37 out of 183… 20%

Someone else will no doubt have actual stats, but my feeling is that it’s not unusual. Prices are still quite high on the peninsula and it’s December. Some people might have a need to sell by end of year, but it’s also an off-season, so pricing at summer rates isn’t really appropriate.

So looking at the specific houses. Definitely feels like a lot more inventory in RWC under $1K/sq ft.

The following seem like deals to me:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Redwood-City/3654-Farm-Hill-Blvd-94061/home/1162181
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Redwood-City/759-Canyon-Rd-94062/home/1920235
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Carlos/136-Dale-Ave-94070/home/1774715

Probably lot value:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Atherton/72-Parker-Ave-94027/home/1498469

Maaaaaybe:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Menlo-Park/2111-Harkins-Ave-94025/home/1992179

Some are definitely overpriced:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Menlo-Park/410-Eighth-Ave-94025/home/848450
(No garage if it’s the one I’m thinking of)

Market will be dead till Super Bowl
Watch for stats in March

to be clear, you are saying this is what you would see any year at this time of the year… nothing unusual.

I don’t have historical perspective

Great to buy now. Lowball and see what happens. Wat till March and there will be multiple offers then.
Ask a realtor at an open house if anyone shows up this month. If not make a low offer.

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I see the slow downs, but not like year 2000 and year 2008. Year 2008 is beyond comparison, we are not going to get into.

The current slag is not due to jobloss, but by the increase in mortgage rate.

I fully agree with Elt1, this is good buy time (Dec-Jan). I have suggested two of my friends to get in as I see good deals, nice condos.

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I am trying to renegotiate my heloc to a lower rate and larger heloc. Prices for what I want to buy are still too high though. :rage:

Instead of Heloc, go for 30 fixed rate of cash out, you get better rate.

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This is the season where people not really interested in buying real estate are quiet.
Prices also are reflecting the wishful thinking of some sellers thinking that they can over price their properties thus hurting the entire market when they have to reduce prices. That is what causes a negative sentiment or push the horse’s mouth to spread wrongful information. Talk to a Realtor, but one of those who really tell you the truth of what’s going on, not the BSer that wants a commission and hell with you.

Then, add the $10K limit to your deduction, and add a salt of grain = hike on interest rates = Nahhh….

Whether the Bay Area is a unique, own country, the rules of supply and demand still exist. When there’s no demand as 7 years ago, interest rates going up, fear of a recession or the stock market going and up and down, more down than up, then you see contempt on buyers.

Also, don’t forget IPOs. They are the birth of future millionaires, and those millionaires start shooting each other at the open houses. You will see, with no data to support me, that after the IPOs, the real estate market gets hot.

It is up to you the --excuse my French-- the dumb or smart investor to pick up the pieces. What profit or loss you make out of that is up to you. You may be picking up prices at the peak, or buying at the beginning of the good times as 2011-2012. Those who were at Redfin forum may remember the good old times when some people were putting off buying a home, and in that process lost $500K or so in appreciation.

Just be aware, they predict a recession in one year or so.

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Looks way overpriced for the units:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Redwood-City/131-Cerrito-Ave-94061/home/1259458

Am I missing something?

I am saying this without any education on economics, nor an iota of knowledge on RE investing.

I bet 100% of you guys agree the best moment to have bought as many properties as you could so cheap is gone 100%.

Perhaps you remember my topic about what the deportation of hundreds of thousands of undocumented people would do to “your economy”? Well, those “illegals” have been a part of the pressure in the market to keep the value of homes rising until these days. I am going to avoid going into politics at this moment.

Just think, think twice what the absence of 10,000 people in only one city would create. Some of you renting units to them may argue good because then you will have “better tenants” when the credit issue or good jobs comes to be debated. No doubt, you are right. But, that person you take as a new tenant has to abandon another unit. And that owner has to either lower the rent, or lose some $ between the exit of the old and the entry of the new tenant.

Now, abandoning my position, change an illegal for a high techie leaving this area or the US because there’s no more jobs for him, or the immigration rules aren’t allowing him to stay here anymore disregarding the many opportunities there are out there. Or, as we saw last time, those “wives” of H1B visa leaving the US because they are not allowed to work anymore. I haven’t followed that story at all.

Also, long ago I created a topic about why “you should be blaming the lack of housing on your employer”. I said so because as of today, Apple is building campuses all over the US, thus allowing the gentrification not only here, but to happen elsewhere. It may be them shooting everybody’s feet after they have grabbed enormous pieces of land depriving the public from owning them and building housing units.
You need to drive around San Jose to understand my point of view. Right in Cupertino-Sunnyvale border, block after block, huge pieces of land are owned by Apple. Never mind Google, Ebay, Facebook, and many more high tech companies.

So, is it a good time to buy properties? It all depends if the job market keeps adding more and more workers to the pool of people wanting to buy, or rent a housing unit. Once they are gone by a result of any recession or because their projects didn’t pan out, yada, yada, yada, God have mercy on this area’s soul.

If that happens, will you see another opportunity as in 2009-2011? If you think so, and you haven’t lost your underwear before that “whatever bad happens”, grab your wallet, the wash and rinse story will repeat again and again.

Now, did you know that Twhitler……:laughing::laughing::laughing::laughing: