Low supply plagues spring housing: Here's where it is worst


“The struggle will continue for home shoppers this summer,” said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. “New construction has been sluggish over the past year; we’re building about half as many homes as we should be in a normal market. There still aren’t enough homes on the market to keep up with the high demand from every type of homebuyer.”

The short supply is pushing home prices higher than expected this year. Zillow had predicted 2 percent growth in home values from April 2015 to April 2016, but its latest data show values currently soaring more than twice that, at 4.9 percent.

The market has bifurcated. The low end is sizzling hot but the higher end is slowing…

Rotation or whimpering?
Rotation = Will go back to higher end.
Whimpering = Once low end stop sizzles, market will tumble.

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The higher end is more correlated to the VC and stock market. Both are experiencing some troubles recently. Being a perma-bull of course I think it’s a temporary lull. :slight_smile: Nasdaq is approaching its resistance level today. If it breaks thru in the coming weeks we can see the high end come back to life.

Wow, where is my dictionary??? :confused:

Low end is hot…Especially in Stockton and Tahoe

Nobody I know wants to sell because:

  1. if investment property, capital gains is taxable (Boooo!!!). Can’t we have the first $500k exclusion that is on primary residents too? Yeah, I know, ain’t happening.
  2. even if you wanted to do an exchange, you can’t find a suitable property anyway or it is overpriced
  3. well, the asset is appreciating and maybe you are even getting decent rent now. Why sell?

So, inventory remains historically low and prices keep skyrocketing yet some of our brilliant leaders (like our BofS in SF) think THEY can dictate the supply of housing by mandating ridiculous affordable housing percentages. Hello, the developers don’t have to play at all. Did you not anticipate that? So, I guess we should thank them for essentially keeping the supply low and thus making our asset buildings increase even faster.

What is low end in Stockton? 100-120K?

Like 100% affordable housing? :grinning: That’s how much they want in exchange to raise the height limit for some development sites. That’s just a PC way of saying FU.

Another trick they are playing is forcing in-laws to be legalized, thus subjecting the whole house to rent control. I belong to a WeChat group. That’s what they (all Chinese) talk about day and night. Many have rented out the illegal in-laws and are now in hot water.

By tightening the screws on landlords, many will chose to sit out the rental market. Maybe the next step is to eminent-domain the whole city and force owners to rent out their houses. :slight_smile:

Sure, why not. I will take a Mao jacket in an extra large please…

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Just bought one in Stockton for $50k sold for $64k…Hard to find anything under $90k…Have 3 others… paid $90k each

Hold on, what are we talking about here? SFHs or condos? Sounds too good to be true.

Sfhs…marginal aresa

SF BOS is thinking to prohibit demolition of houses to make house affordable. No demolitions lead to less new supply so that the old rundown house can continue to house a small population. It’s robbing middle class to protect the existing tenant.

A requirement to become a BOS rep should be the taking and PASSING of a college level Econ 1 class. Jane Kim would need Cliff Notes to pass…

Does it really make sense to prevent developers from adding NET additional housing units (affordable and market) to the marketplace when it will involve removal/demolition of some existing units that are rent controlled? There are ways to work around that, no, and still come out ahead???

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I think the BoS are all very smart. They know how to get elected by pleasing their constituents even if they know that what they propose will be ineffective in solving the issue. And they all know there is no simple way to solve our housing issues.

No question the predominance of renters here in the city will influence what they focus on, right or wrong. But again, why not actually try to do the right thing and produce well thought out legislation that will benefit all parties or that will produce outcomes that will correlate with what your goals are? It doesn’t take a genius to know that if you make it hard or unprofitable to developers that they may simply say no we won’t play.

Next step is make it illegal to say no. Now who’s smart and who’s dumb? Bwahahaha

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So has highend peaked?

Feels like it here in the city.

Stock market is near record highs again…The highend may still have legs. …Senseamp lost his ass

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