We believe that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will likely impact housing as follows:
More entry-level home buying in most areas of the country
Higher rents, since tenants now have more disposable income
Acceleration in Southern migration
We ran the math for a typical two-person married renter and owner household in all of the major metropolitan areas in the country1 and learned that in 2018 the TCJA resulted in:
Renters paying $2,716 less in taxes , ranging from $1,918 less in Miami to $5,214 less in San Jose
Homeowners paying $1,508 less in taxes , with San Jose and San Francisco homeowners actually paying more in taxes and Nashville homeowners paying $2,335 less in taxes
Rent everywhere is increasing gradually
In Austin, prices are decreasing too, except those neighborhoods bathe in Apple effect.
Run the numbers.
Need 90% down in SJ to achieve cash flow neutral.
In Austin, despite the higher property tax rate, “high” insurance rate, property management and HOA, only need 30% down to be cashflow neutral. NW Austin and suburbs are appreciating at 5-7% p.a. despite Trump antics because tech and medical companies are expanding there. Recall @BAGB posted a graph that show Austin is the tortoise to SJ hare.