Based on my observance since Dec 2017, I see there is a possibility of market dip very likely. Okay, here is the final take, as my prediction can go wrong 100% !
If tomorrow market is up and VIX is also up most of the time, my prediction came true on Tuesday (D-Day) !
If tomorrow market is up and VIX is completely down, I am 100% wrong…you can assume and let us forget the story.
BTW: This is for my discussion purpose, but not a stock advice, neither financial advice, Anything you do on stock market, you are on your own.
Famous economist John Maynard Keynes said, the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent . So be cautious and flexible as market conditions evolve.
End of the Day, VIX may come down below the peak, but it is dormant volcano to erupt later (guessing tomorrow…)
Market makers keep the SPY UP and VIX UP so that calls are getting filled (Stocks only go up…).The way VIX and SPY acts is very unique (extreme heat) which I have not noticed since 2017. This will not long last.
BTW: This is for my discussion purpose, but not a stock advice, neither financial advice, Anything you do on stock market, you are on your own.
Saw a friend mentioned he sold all positions and went all cash. You guys are ruining the market top. Too many people waiting for the crash and too little FOMO in the market. Greed is stubbornly stuck in the 70s despite Nasdaq making new highs seemingly every week now.
You guys are ruining the market top. => Market makers (Banks/big funds) are ruining the top.
With VIX run today, tomorrow (onwards) is likely a disaster day for market…Remember, we are not ruining, but cautious for potential fall. This week is crucial week. If market is not falling, people can even resume their trades.
Second, Fear and Greed index is not perfectly giving the details. See here, it took more than a year to get 144% (^GSPC) while 5.5 months to exceed 157% this year.
Noticed the spike, I just token shorted (first time shorting the stock !) this stock after hours @ $403…Win or loss, tomorrow (or few days) I will come to know…
At last, correction started, good lessons learnt to wait until last minute. If market dips 3%-5%, and drops continues slowly, then dip will be permanent now, otherwise…it can turn any side.
I just started this thread to discuss about potential fall when market is going way up. There was a shift of 7 days, market now turned down(may be tomorrow upside as it is normal).
Wait for some bottom as slide will continue slowly, it may be 5%, 10% or beyond which no one can predict now.
As I do not have any further clue, I will not be updating here. Good Luck.
BTW: This is for my discussion purpose, but not a stock advice, neither financial advice, Anything you do on stock market, you are on your own.
Extreme 101. I don’t think the run is over until it gets up to the 90s. Maybe I am wrong and everyone who’s been waiting for the crash got their wish fulfilled. I doubt it.
Only slightly more than 50% in cash.
