Micron Technology, My new pick for year 2018


IMHO, no new info by MartyMoho. Read this type of analysis numerous times in Seeking Alpha and MF articles. Mixtures of facts, assumptions and opinions.

There are some incongruence. For example, can’t think of a reason now doesn’t mean won’t have “unexpected”.
“Cycles happen due to… steep, unexpected decline in demand.”
“There is no reason to think demand will do anything but continue to increase due to…"

What do you think of the reverse statement below?
All arguments for MU are historical BS or speculation by people that don’t know what they’re talking about.

If I want to invest a lot of money in this counter and hold it hopefully forever, would want to find out what happen between 2013-16.

Thinking aloud possible tradeable idea: 2013-2015, 7x over 2 years; early 2016 to early 2018? 7x too? Now is 4x so $30 upside?




Yes, I read that.

With chips cyclically coming down is long way, but not during booming economic times. When economy is great, MU looks great. I am seeing at least one year to continue the trend. With low P/E, MU seems lucrative.


MU made the day



I like scrolling the unusual options activity. Sometimes you’ll see a specific date and strike price had huge volume. Usually, it means someone knows something material.


Maybe the guy who sold $40 puts knew about the Meltdown bugs and how the patch will slow servers down by 30%. Now suddenly everybody needs to buy 30% more servers in 2018.


Still CONS side of the story for MU, but I am not so much convinced except a warning that Chips may go down in demand in future years.



Didn’t follow through my analysis that it would hit $70, just FOMO bought 1 Jul call $50. So if it goes up, I can claim that I’m in MU. About 3x at $70. Return won’t lose to bitcoin. So far most of my short term long call gain more than 100%, past performance is a guarantee of repeat performance :grinning:


I like this HF manager Eddie Tam’s writing but his writing is in Chinese only. In his latest article he touches on semis like micron and Samsung.

According to him Korea has one of the cheapest PE around the world, and Japan is copying Trump’s tax plan and is cutting Corp tax. A global tax war is brewing.


Looks like Intel is being a traitor and selling out to the Chinese.


This and the recently announced divorce between Intel and Micron is driving MU stock lower.


Do you sell, hold or buy MU now?


Hodling for the most part, but started selling some to fund purchase of Nvidia and Xilinx.


Has a video interview with micron ceo in the article. Just looked up his name on Wikipedia. Did not know he’s co-founder of SanDisk! Berkeley EECS grad. I now have much more confidence in micron. :smile:


This is interesting.
Is he located SJ or Boise?
Can he really lead Idaho company successfully?


Looks like he’s staying put in SV. Here’s an old news article from back when he was appointed CEO. SanDisk and Micron were bitter rivals in the early 2000s. Western Digital eventually bought SanDisk for 19B and Sanjay stepped down. Funny now he’s running Micron.