Micron Technology, My new pick for year 2018

IMHO, no new info by MartyMoho. Read this type of analysis numerous times in Seeking Alpha and MF articles. Mixtures of facts, assumptions and opinions.

There are some incongruence. For example, can’t think of a reason now doesn’t mean won’t have “unexpected”.
“Cycles happen due to… steep, unexpected decline in demand.”
“There is no reason to think demand will do anything but continue to increase due to…"

What do you think of the reverse statement below?
All arguments for MU are historical BS or speculation by people that don’t know what they’re talking about.

If I want to invest a lot of money in this counter and hold it hopefully forever, would want to find out what happen between 2013-16.

Thinking aloud possible tradeable idea: 2013-2015, 7x over 2 years; early 2016 to early 2018? 7x too? Now is 4x so $30 upside?

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-why-worst-yet-come-170000937.html

Yes, I read that.

With chips cyclically coming down is long way, but not during booming economic times. When economy is great, MU looks great. I am seeing at least one year to continue the trend. With low P/E, MU seems lucrative.

MU made the day

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tuesday-vital-data-micron-technology-131929600.html

I like scrolling the unusual options activity. Sometimes you’ll see a specific date and strike price had huge volume. Usually, it means someone knows something material.

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Maybe the guy who sold $40 puts knew about the Meltdown bugs and how the patch will slow servers down by 30%. Now suddenly everybody needs to buy 30% more servers in 2018.

Still CONS side of the story for MU, but I am not so much convinced except a warning that Chips may go down in demand in future years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-stock-not-cheap-looks-124900180.html

Didn’t follow through my analysis that it would hit $70, just FOMO bought 1 Jul call $50. So if it goes up, I can claim that I’m in MU. About 3x at $70. Return won’t lose to bitcoin. So far most of my short term long call gain more than 100%, past performance is a guarantee of repeat performance :grinning:

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I like this HF manager Eddie Tam’s writing but his writing is in Chinese only. In his latest article he touches on semis like micron and Samsung.

According to him Korea has one of the cheapest PE around the world, and Japan is copying Trump’s tax plan and is cutting Corp tax. A global tax war is brewing.

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Looks like Intel is being a traitor and selling out to the Chinese.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180110PD210.html?mod=3&q=INTEL+

This and the recently announced divorce between Intel and Micron is driving MU stock lower.

Do you sell, hold or buy MU now?

Hodling for the most part, but started selling some to fund purchase of Nvidia and Xilinx.

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/micron-ceo-sanjay-mehrotra-we-are-at-sweet-spot-of-tech-trends-at-ces/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

Has a video interview with micron ceo in the article. Just looked up his name on Wikipedia. Did not know he’s co-founder of SanDisk! Berkeley EECS grad. I now have much more confidence in micron. :smile:

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This is interesting.
Is he located SJ or Boise?
Can he really lead Idaho company successfully?

Looks like he’s staying put in SV. Here’s an old news article from back when he was appointed CEO. SanDisk and Micron were bitter rivals in the early 2000s. Western Digital eventually bought SanDisk for 19B and Sanjay stepped down. Funny now he’s running Micron.

http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/business/article147067914.html

Authorities in China have alleged “massive evidence” of antitrust violations by the world’s top three memory chip manufacturers, in the latest industrial spat that threatens to upset global trade relations. Officials in Beijing said an investigation into South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and US-based Micron Technology had made “important progress”, and vowed to deepen their probe into the trio, which account for more than 95 per cent of the world’s supply of DRAM chips.

The probe casts a shadow over Samsung, the world’s largest chipmaker by sales, whose soaring profits in recent years have been fuelled almost entirely by the memory chips required by evermore powerful computer servers and cryptocurrency mining devices. But Beijing’s interest in nurturing domestic technology groups, including chipmakers, also threatens to hollow out business in neighbouring South Korea, where semiconductors this year accounted for 20 per cent of all exports. “The anti-monopoly investigation into these three companies has made important progress . . . [It] has yielded massive evidence,” said Wu Zhenguo, head of China’s anti-monopoly bureau under the State Administration for Market Regulation.

The inclusion of Micron has sparked fears the probe could form part of a counteroffensive by China in its trade war with the US. “This seems to be part of Beijing’s negotiating tactic amid the ongoing trade war. Beijing may be using this as a bargaining chip for its trade talks with the US,” said Daniel Kim, an analyst at Macquarie. China last year accounted for 51 per cent of Micron’s semiconductor sales, 40 per cent of Samsung’s sales and 33 per cent of SK Hynix’s, according to SK Securities.

The three companies named in the investigation, which kicked off in June, are serious competition for nascent state-backed Chinese groups. In 2015, Beijing unveiled a national initiative to become a global high-tech superpower in key sectors including semiconductors. Chinese firms have received massive state subsidies for the research and manufacture of memory chips.

That has also fuelled complaints that Chinese state-owned companies are stealing US technology to further that goal, accusations that have featured prominently in the US-China trade war. This month, Washington filed criminal charges against Fujian Jinhua, a Chinese state-owned company, for the alleged theft of trade secrets from Micron as Washington ratchets up its fight against Chinese economic espionage, and it has banned the Chinese group from buying US-made components. The semiconductor investigation also reflects China’s increasing wiliness to exert its antitrust powers over multinational companies.

The anti-monopoly bureau within the commerce ministry has worldwide jurisdiction over any deal above a certain size if the regulators judge that it will have a broad effect on Chinese consumers and suppliers. Kim Young-woo, an analyst at SK Securities, said Beijing could impose fines of more than $2.5bn on each the three chipmakers in the worst-case scenario. “This would create additional pressure to cut DRAM prices and build more wafer factories as joint ventures with local Chinese companies to spur the transfer of technology to China,” he said.

https://www.ft.com/content/d626833a-ebb5-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0

There could be real antitrust issues for memory makers. It’s controlled by a few big players.

Why does nobody prosecute OPEC for antitrust?

PG&E, Boeing, government are all monopoly. Can you sue the government for antitrust violations?