A few notes on “No Cost, No Fee” refinances to consider.
When rates are in the 2’s, once you close it’s highly unlikely refinancing will make sense. We’re running out of numbers here. All this talk of sub 2% rates is pretty much a fairy tale. With this in mind, you might want to pay fees, even finance them.
For ease of number calculations, I’m going to assume a $1m loan at 60% LTV. The math works with every other loan amount, only the percentage costs of the buy down will differ.
You get an offer of 3.0% 30 fixed at “no cost”. Your payment is $4,216.64. In 10 years your balance will be $757,882
You could have gotten 2.75% 30 fixed with 1.5 points cost. If you did, and you financed your closing costs of $5,000, your balance would be $1,020,000. Your payment is $4,164.06 (-52.58 saved per month) In 10 years your balance is $765,637.
YOW. $20k in closing costs and an $8k higher balance in 10 years!!!. Hmmm… you saved $52.58 x 120 payment, or $6,309 so the difference isn’t that far off and you’re gaining ground quickly. Had you made the 3.0% payment on your 2.75% loan in 10 years your balance would be $758,314 - closer still. By paying the 3.0 rate payment on your 2.75% loan, you pay off 6 months earlier than a zero cost 30 fixed rate at 3.0%
This theory is for the long holders, not the short gamers.
That said, what if you took out a 10/1 ARM with 1.50 points? The rate would be close to 2.25%. The payment would be $3,898.91 (-$319.09 vs 30 fixed). Without a prepayment in 10 years the balance would be $750,486! That’s -$7,396 LESS owed on a 30 fixed rate! If you did make the 3.0 payment on your 2.25 loan, the balance falls to $707,736.
By making the exact same payment on a 30 year fixed rate, In 10 years would you rather owe $707,736 or $757,882?
But… rates…
Yes, no one knows where rates will be in 10 years. They would have to be consistently above 4.25% for 10 years after the first adjustment in order to equally match the 30 year fixed rates expenses. 10 years, you’re ahead and 10 more years you break even. 20 years is a vast amount of time and a great deal can happen during then.
By no means is this theory for everyone. Sub $510k loans should look long and hard at the 15 or 20 year amortizing loans. Non-Owner, Greater than $765k financing? Yeah, it’s worth a good hard look IMHO
Thanks for reading.