My dose of negativity for the day :-)


Ok, “Mr. Debbie Downer”, but remodeling is up!!!:grinning::grinning::grinning:

Went to Orinda/Lafayette/Walnut Creek with the family yesterday… we prefer the mid peninsula… (Burlingame/San Mateo) . I am hoping for a drop! :slight_smile: I’m selfish

Nasdaq dropping nicely today

Hey, who doesn’t want a bargain, right? The only problem I see is that everyone else is also like you, looking/waiting for a great deal in some prime locations of the Bay. So something you love that MIGHT come up on the MLS (remember, if a house is so good, why would someone sell it in the first place?), more than likely, others will love it, which ultimately means probably no bargain after all is said and done. I say, find yourself a really good RE agent who can find you a true diamond in a rough property in those areas that you want and then you fix it up to be your dream, custom home.

I disagree. Our realtor friend tells me there is no pool of buyers in this area. People moving away, selling their childhood house they inherited from their parents, cashing out. Chinese cash gone, according to her “that kept the party going for the last 3 years”

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One thing I learned at a young age is that there are plenty of people with money out there. You are not the only one looking, trust me. A bargain is a bargain, and once everyone catches wind of it, it will not be a bargain anymore. Come on, how long have you been essentially looking for a home, even on and off? Ok, so Chinese money is finding it a tad harder to get here, but you forget that there are also plenty of local high tech folks making very good salaries who are just as interested in buying as you are. If I see a bargain, I will let you know…:wink:

If the Chinese money has slowed, then the next wave is Saudi money… disguised as American money. All that money through Mayoshi-son / Softbank / Saudi Sovereign wealth … just waiting for companies like Uber to go public…

We came here in May 2017. My cash was tied up then. Now it is not. Still considering continuing to rent here and buying rentals elsewhere. If a significant drop takes place here, we might consider buying here. our lease is up in June 2019… we will see.

Most of those high earning (“high”in the BA means barely making it sometimes) tech folks have probably already bought. In fact, many used their RSUs as proof of income. The last thing in their minds is buying another home. They may already be nervous about their primary.

Most people out there are not like people in this group, with extra cash, etc, they have families and a life to live… many got on the BA RE train out of FOMO…

Anyway, this is my impression after living here for a while and talking to both established locals, third generation BA rich 40 year old kids, newcomers, Indian IT families… it may be anecdotal, but if you watch the movie “The Big Short”, he got lots of info about the bubble from strippers and realtors :wink:

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OMG, that is an eternity from now (in RE time). But again, your whole thing is about finding a bargain in the better parts of the Bay and not just “buying a house anywhere” around here. Quite a bit of difference, my friend. For good stuff, people will come out of the woodwork…

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I have always appreciated your insights here. I admit I am biased and selfish in my opinion. We will see what happens between now and June 2019… :handshake:

Your friend is right, I have sold my primary in South Bay. Now in Austin enjoying the fresh air :grinning:


so are you moving to the Dark Side with me??? I feel so alone on the Dark Side sometimes :sleepy:

If you are in a wealth building mode and don’t mind not keeping up with the Jones for many years, is a good strategy. You would have the last laugh, a good analogy is like running a long distance. Belatedly I found out is profitable to rent in fortress and buy rentals elsewhere.

the math makes sense UNLESS you predict BA RE appreciation (in terms of %) to continue at the same rate as 2008-2017 (which, in my opinion, is highly unlikely).

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The IPO pipeline is improving after years of minimal activity. Big companies have hoards of cash for acquisitions. People who are rich on paper but not liquid will become liquid in the next 2 years.

Bears always look at this wrong. They don’t realize RE isn’t like stocks. The RE float is about 2%. Only a tiny percent of homes change hands each year. Anyone with a sub 4% mortgage probably feels like it’s a gift. That’s only going reduce inventory as those people hold.

You aren’t in the mid-peninsula unless you are keeping up with the jones.

There’s anecdotal evidence that activity has picked up. Houses that fell out of contract went higher the second time around. That soft spot has passed for now.

I would look at absorption and dom over price reductions. If you look you might be able to find an uptick in price increases :). Neighborhoods that are targeted by young families are the most competitive. Avoid those and you can find a better value.

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I have updated my profile pic. There is no going back now…

Hey, you don’t want an echo chamber do you? Some gloom and doom can be good. :grinning:

Good luck to all

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Say what? :open_mouth:

Meet up has to be at a strip club in the domain :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: or the mansion that is still constructing :grinning:

Your son relocated to Austin?