My dose of negativity for the day :-)

[hanera]

I totally don’t understand contrarian.
Contrarian to who?
Contrarian to the mainstream? to the contrarian? to the contrarian to the contrarian?
IMHO, if you have info/reason that indicate a direction/ outcome that is different from the majority, don’t be afraid to be contrarian. That is what I believe contrarian principle mean. It doesn’t mean I should go contrarian to current majority view for no good reason.

[Roy321]

@zensri

Oh, come on! Some of us work at Twitter and FB. We created the instantaneous news revolution that the world is going nuts with.

[zensri]

I vote for the interest rate increase as the reason. I think Powell is going to slow down as he indicated last week. Provided Trump does not publicly incite him otherwise.

[marcus335]

I don’t think so yet. Prior recessions have been after 2.75-3.25% of interest rate hikes. Granted, we can have a stock market correction or bear market without a recession.

I don’t see RE crashing, since we don’t have all the unqualified owners.

[Roy321]

@BAGB

Who is that analyst?

Off the top of my head - Mark Zandi from Moody’s

[Roy321]

@marcus335

I don’t think so yet. Prior recessions have been after 2.75-3.25% of interest rate hikes. Granted, we can have a stock market correction or bear market without a recession.

I don’t see RE crashing, since we don’t have all the unqualified owners.

#IAGREE#

[hanera]

@marcus335

Granted, we can have a stock market correction or bear market without a recession.

Conventional wisdom is stock market leads economy by 3-6 months. Now that we have a confirmed (agree?) bear market, shouldn’t recession come in 3-6 months later i.e. Mar-Jun? Also, when a recession is officially declared, the economy is usually in recovery So I really want a recession to be declared officially.

[zensri]

GDP is still growing and unemployment is still reaching new all time lows every month. So working backwards, we may not be in general bear market in stocks. Only the usual aggressive stocks are down. S&P is down just around 10% from its peak.

[acre]

@hanera

@marcus335

Granted, we can have a stock market correction or bear market without a recession.

Conventional wisdom is stock market leads economy by 3-6 months. Now that we have a confirmed (agree?) bear market, shouldn’t recession come in 3-6 months later i.e. Mar-Jun? Also, when a recession is officially declared, the economy is usually in recovery So I really want a recession to be declared officially.

In 1987 the market fell 40% in a single week. That would be 10,000 points down now.
In 1988 the economy grew 4%.
What we have here is a normal pull-back after an 8,000 point run-up since the '16 election.
As for real estate -so glad I sold my no-gargage-and-not-even-a driveway home in La Honda for $900 a sq ft; I think it will be some time before that happens again. Just wish I could have brought my mom’s home in Stanford to market faster. Only three people showed up at yesterday’s open house. The backwoods Alan Pinel guy I used had a much better feel for how fast the market was deteriorating than the Sotheby’s guy doing my mom’s place. In June he was going to try for nearly $1000 a sq ft; by the time I was ready in August he told me to list 10% lower.

[hanera]

@acre

In June he was going to try for nearly $1000 a sq ft; by the time I was ready in August he told me to list 10% lower.

My Austin realtor told me that market deteriorates pretty fast all of a sudden. Three months ago is very hot, just one month ago, things cool down drastically. Something happen at macro-level. I feel is the new tax - people starts receiving property tax bill, and banks tighten borrowing.

[BAGB]

Mortgage rate. Banks are relaxing credit, no tightening

[hanera]

@BAGB

Mortgage rate. Banks are relaxing credit, no tightening

Are you sure? Thought they are questioning the use of RSUs for mortgage now.

[Elt1]

Building may be at a low nationally. But in Santa Rosa Paradise and Malibu there will be a building boom. Can’t find builders in Tahoe, they are all booked.

[Terri]

@Rent_and_Vent

I disagree. Our realtor friend tells me there is no pool of buyers in this area. People moving away, selling their childhood house they inherited from their parents, cashing out. Chinese cash gone, according to her “that kept the party going for the last 3 years”

What area is this again?

[ww13]

It’s contrarian to the mainstream/masses/media. It’s whatever the media is feeding the public. I take it to mean that once everyone adopts a pov it becomes outdated. The masses cannot reverse course nimbly when the wind changes.

I looked at some zillow traffic data points in the mid peninsula starter home price point. Right around two weeks ago there was a spike in activity and it looks to be higher over the most recent two weeks versus the previous two. Maybe it was the election. We are talking 50-100% increase.

[sfdragonboy]

Homes in desirable areas will never be bargains. Will beautiful women for some reason, regardless of good/bad times, somehow become less desirable? NO!!!

[hanera]

@sfdragonboy

Will beautiful women for some reason, regardless of good/bad times, somehow become less desirable? NO!!!

Contacted HIV?

[zensri]

My observation too. Inventory is going down

[buyinghouse]

@Rent_and_Vent

I disagree. Our realtor friend tells me there is no pool of buyers in this area. People moving away, selling their childhood house they inherited from their parents, cashing out. Chinese cash gone, according to her “that kept the party going for the last 3 years”

I had a meeting with some realtors in my financial circle. They told me the same. That was about 2 months ago. Augment that by the stock market plunging.

I edited it to say that they didn’t like the way the artificial economy was going. They said they saw the government forcing the economy through tax cuts when the investors didn’t need it. That created the inflation that is hitting most Americans today. Loans are more expensive, yada, yada, yada.

[hanera]

@hanera

Homestead High School Zone
7 days later, 23 homes available for sale.
3 new. 20 previous. So (27-20) = 7 out of previous 27 available are sold or delisted over the last 7 days.
Inventory drops from the range 25-28 due more sale and less new on the market.

@ww13

Right around two weeks ago there was a spike in activity and it looks to be higher over the most recent two weeks versus the previous two.

Inventory drop was observed in HHS. Not making any conclusion based on one week