It is a gamble because even areas like Sunnyvale dropped a lot in value back in the recession. Many homes got foreclosed. So it is important to find some kind of a balance as to not to overexpose or over leverage yourself. However, if you don’t take some calculated risk then you can’t win long term.
@Jil because the current house prices arent supported by regular dual income couples. They are only fueled by IPO rich, stock rich folks from tech companies. What if there isnt a huge wave of new IPOs come, what is RSUs stop, bonuses stop, who will buy these shacks in prime area for 2.5M?? In the long run, it may not matter because everything will go up. My point is about being a wiser investment of your downpayment in the short term
Is that really you? You seemed to have changed a lot since I saw you last time… 
I think Mark Zuckerburg alone can buy at least 1 year’s supply of that in the entire Bay Area. So if he decided to pursue that endeavor, everyone else will be out of luck…
current house prices arent supported by regular dual income couples ==> Even though I had seen more bankruptcies (than Cupertino) in Saratogo, it was like that (beyond level) pre-2000 onwards. Other areas are Los Altos, Los Gatos etc where buyers are cash Rich and they do not go through mortgages,but just cash.
Those who buy using IPO income, most likely will not have mortgages. Wherever cash rich sales are there , we may not see foreclosures or less foreclosures. Prices will be stabilized better than mortgage areas.
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This is not at all gamble, understanding location, location and cash rich location.
As I said already, cash rich offers place , prices get stabilized and future fall is reduced. If you remember, I have been telling this for a longer time ever since Red Fin forum onwards.
Sunnyvale, Mountain View , Belmont are changed like Cupertino or even more than Cupertino now. When entire market falls, these areas price will hold as we will see less foreclosure by virtue of high cash down or full cash offers.
This is what my realtor told me 10 years before and I did not understand until I see the reality now.
that’s what it feels like.
I have always been a fan of Belmont. Build three houses there and owned a couple others.
It always is a laggard. But the house I bought for $200k in 1982 is now worth $1.7m
The new hous I sold in 1997 for $600k is now worth $2m
4/3 2550sf
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The weak players might still willing to sell for lesser profit so prices can still fall. There’s no guarantee in life!
With current craziness on home bidding, I really do not think Sunnyvale will be back to old prices. Gone is gone, and it is set for cash buyers or wealthy buyer. I have seen multiple Tesla’s X models during open houses!
ptiemann is the expert in sunnyvale areas.
I am not telling prices are not going to fall, but get stabilized.
Even Cupertino fell 5%-8% level during 2008 with 3-5 foreclosures(SS)/month, while other areas (esp south san jose and MH) were 40%-50% homes were distressed.
The economy crashes, the fall of Sunnyvale (Median price percentage fall) will be lessor than others. Sunnyvale will be in line with Cupertino, Mountain View…etc.
Um… I’m gambling on WSJ. Hope it’ll be “inline” with Cupertino…
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One question though: What will be the future buyer pool, who can pay 2.5M for the home. I get that current ones paid 50% or more in cash from stocks/previous RE equity etc and hence wont foreclose.
So when I look at wage levels, 1.5M is what is supported by ordinary Dual income couples and I see that sustaining long term, not 3M purchases.
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So one shouldn’t buy a place in SV which the value exceeded $1.5M?
The mercury article describes the Sunnyvale house as “on a large lot of 6000 sq ft”.
You are playing safe game , now !
As you know, everything depends on demand, supply and urgency (issues) of seller. If jobs losses like dot.com occur, we may have issues. Otherwise, no seller is ready to sell less than what they bought. In that case, new wealthy can buy.
When my friend bought Cupertino home for 400k, I was thinking very high, but later I was able to by higher than that price, and those homes are going 2M+ level. All happened in last 20-25 years.
As long as local economy is growing with new companies, new innovation, chances are there Cities will become like San Francisco, crunching spaces…etc.
See how it was (50k/home) and how it is now(2M/home)?
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Can my lifespan extend by a couple hundred years? That way I can see my home values increase to $100M per home…
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I knew this from the listing agent of this property that it would go for close to 1.2. A factor in my offer for the flip.
Chomping on my fingers to close on the property.
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