Next 10x Stock Winner


#1

Here’s a fairly long list based on a screen inspired by recent discussion here. These are companies worth 1B-10B, growing revenue fast, and with fat gross margins. Any of these standout to anyone?

ABMD
ACIA
AMRN
APPF
AYX
BCOR
BIVV
BL
CAVM
COUP
CRUS
DOC
DXCM
ELLI
EXAS
EXEL
FND
GKOS
GTT
ICPT
ICUI
INVA
IPHI
JUNO
LOGM
MB
MKSI
MULE
NVCR
PAYC
PFPT
PI
SHOP
SPLK
TDOC
TRVG
TSRO
TWLO
VEEV
WEB
WIX
YEXT
ZEN


#2

I owned VEEV, TDOC, SHOP, but sold all.

These three companies were appreciating very much. Shop is speculative appreciation and they have two times made follow-on IPOs, got the cash from investors.They received 500M+ from those two rounds of stock sale. They are likely be financially independent status, but questionable profit margin.

TDOC was also growing, but again speculative

SPLK, I watched, big data company, but not invested, not interested.

VEEV, IPHI have better net income, dependable growth.

Rest, I will not even consider, esp at this crazy market that can turn any way.

Recently, I moved my money to dividend payers like BA, LMT, GILD, CSCO, VZ, T, QCOM (adding more soon), OHI, CCP, AAPL (Reduced), NVDA (Reduced), and non-dividend payer IRBT, PYPL.

The only very tiny Risky company I hold is EVOL and I bought for 4.4% yield with 32% Payout Ratio. I still feel risky and invested very small amount.

I am mainly focusing on qualified dividend income to pay less tax.


#3

It was discussed on the other thread. Profit isn’t necessary for huge returns as long as revenue grows fast enough. I think you need high gross margin though. That proves the potential to have big profits. Plus, it provides cash to invest in future opportunities.


#4

Probably not a good time to take risk :grinning: Feel more like don’t buy but not necessary sell yet.


#5

Other than high yield, why old stalwarts like QCOM and CSCO? Nostalgic?

Since CCP and SBRA are going to merge, why not SBRA?

Why GILD? What about ISRG, REGN, BIIB, CELG and AMGN?

Added OHI yesterday.


#6

[quote=“Jil, post:2, topic:2789, full:true”]

Recently, I moved my money to dividend payers[/quote]
Me too since the beginning of this year…in hindsight should have waited a little more but oh well :slight_smile:


#7

If this is the concept/idea, then SHOP and TDOC are the best. They are to grow like NFLX or AMZN or TSLA.

SHOP is in limelight than TDOC, but both are fine.

Recent Tech stocks show down and subsequent sell off removed all hypes and lot of losses. Nowadays, savvy investors look for value or ROI.

During boom, any news is good news and stock skyrockets. During waning period, investors look for profit and EPS. Considering this, Now,I feel they are risky and **I sold them ( TDOC and SHOP ) ** to come to consistent net income and with dividend payers.

Since I look for dividend payers and growth oriented companies, buy and forget type, I look for Net profit as dividend is a by product of net profit.


#8

Other than high yield, why old stalwarts like QCOM and CSCO? Nostalgic?

QCOM is mainly down on Apple & Federal legal challenge, royalty fee, but the company grows. As of now, QCOM hit the lowest again, worst case is $50 (max IMO). Current dividend is 4.35% with payout ratio 82%. IMO, legal dispute may end up in compromise in few years, potential chance to jump up (speculative). However 4.35% is a good yield now. This is next to T and VZ which gives > 5% dividend.

CSCO, my current yield works out at 5.25%. Profit Margin 20% almost like AAPL, but payout is 52%, almost half of Profit Margin is coming as dividend. This is low beta, no major growth, but good dividend payer.

Since CCP and SBRA are going to merge, why not SBRA? Yes, SBRA is fine

Why GILD? I missed the bottom at 65 (Bought and sold by mistake), but bought again at $68. Dividend yield for me is around 3.1%, but this company has potential to grow back to its top. It was $120 at top,but can easily reach $100 or 90 level. Margin of safety and nice dividend income.

What about ISRG, REGN, BIIB, CELG and AMGN?

All are good, ISRG is topper, but not a dividend payer. I missed ISRG many times, do not have any money to invest.

Added OHI yesterday.


#9

I own KITE(not in your list) which is a competitor to JUNO in your list. Both work on immunotherapy drugs that do wonders nothing else has ever done. KITE is likely to be the first to the market, though its drug targets less patients than JUNO does.


#10

Here are the dividend payers, I follow now.

T

VZ

SO

TGT

QCOM

PFE

CSCO

GIS

PAYX

SNY

ABBV

ED

KO

INTC

PG

GILD

WFC

WMT

BA

DPS

LMT

JNJ

MCD

UNP

UTX

MMM

AFL

ADP

MSFT

HAS

GLW

RTN

AAPL

MO

PM


#11

JIL has been influenced by CNBC, Even the big technology companies look too much like 1999 to not sell some stocks and BAC, Bank Of America To Clients: ‘Sell Before It’s Too Late’ 1999 is clear-cut bubble, many companies don’t even make any money, just add a .com and is worth billions of dollars. P/Es of established companies like MSFT, CSCO, SUN, YHOO… were over 60.

Today,

FB 43.34
AMZN 196.99
NFLX 236.33
GOOGL 32.19

AAPL 17.66
NVDA 54.29
TSLA -70.13

MSFT 32.29


#12

ALGN jumps up 13%
FSLR jumps up 8%
SPWR jumps up 4%


#13

BIDU jumped 8%


#14

BIDU was too large to make the screen. I limited market cap to $10B. That way 10x growth would be $100B.

Who’s buying Redfin? It’s up nice on IPO day.

The market isn’t in decline yet. Why sell off whole positions? Sell come covered calls.


#15

Mid cap is the place to be. 50B can grow 10x to 500B. Much more likely than large cap to grow from 500B to 5T, and much more likely than small cap to grow from 5B to 50B.

Why? Because they are already established growth engines, not yet too big thus slowing down like the large caps, but also more proven than the small caps.

3 tech companies fit the bill: BIDU, TSLA, and NFLX

Too big: AAPL, FB, GOOGL, AMZN

Too small: YELP, TWTR, SNAP, SQ

However, I do see the potential in the “too small”. If you picked the right one (maybe 10 to 1 shot), reward will be huge.


#16

I feel it’s easier to go from $1B to $10B. There are lots and lots of $10B companies. How many $500B are there? You need a TON of customers to drive revenue to $500B market cap. Very few companies will have products or services that can serve that many people.

The ones you site as too small never developed beyond their original product. SQ is starting too with their business software. It expands them beyond just payments, and the software is far more profitable. The others are products not companies. How successful would Apple be if it didn’t follow up the iMac with the iPod and then the iPhone? Most companies that fail to achieve the next level of growth miss the boat. Someone else develops the iPod, because they are too focused on being a computer company. The world is full of companies that crashed, because they failed to have a vision beyond their first product. .

My plan is to research that list and narrow it down based on: CEO is founder and they are developing multiple products to drive future growth.


#17

The problem with small caps: too many to choose from!!! You will have to invest in at least 10 companies to get any kind of success.

Here’s my calculation:

Large cap: 50% success rate of doubling, so invest in 2 of them at 800k gives you $1.2M

Mid cap: 25% success rate of quadrupling, so invest in 4 of them at 800k gives you $1.4M

Small cap: 10% success rate of 8x increase, so invest in 8 of them at 800k gives you $1.5M


#18

That’s why I filtered the list down based on growth rate and gross margin. If you aren’t growing fast enough as a small company, then you’ll never become big. If you aren’t producing big margins, then you’ll lack cash to investment in future ideas. That made the list a lot smaller.


#19

Would you mind sharing the list?


#20

It’s the first post. Rev growth is over 30%, GM is over 40%, and market cap is $1-10B. Then I focused on the tech and biotech names.