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Fastly Has Broken a Key Band of Support

FSLY could bounce at any point, but the three charts above are bearish and the odds, in my opinion, favor further declines. With a downside price target of only $29 from the Point and Figure chart (above) I am in no rush to recommend even scale-down buying. Avoid for now.

FSLY is closing in fastly to 200-day SMA. Currently, $55-$56.

We are going to a recessionary period, stocks (individual stocks) may go down 80% from peak ! No more touching stocks until bottom.

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MU looks good somehow :slight_smile:

If you like MU move to Boise. Much nicer than Austin

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Wow

That’s a bold prediction. If that were to happen, banks need a meltdown caused by fed’s inability to provide liquidity. I don’t deny it could happen but that will provide the greatest buying opportunity ever! All in x 200%. :face_vomiting:

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Looks like we have the biggest spread prediction in a long time. Jil says 80% down. Biden and Trump supporters saying big boom. Uncertainty drives stocks down. If the election isn’t decided for weeks like in 2000, definitely bearish.

Connection? I like to watch whale, move to the Ocean? Anyhoo too cold for me, prefer no snow areas.

Are you saying is a contrary indicator for a bottom?

I am not telling S&P goes down 80%, but individual stocks like FSLY can drop 80% from peak.

We are in recession no doubt. Banks will escape , except for covid-crisis credit.

Seriously (not politically):

If Trump or Biden wins, with hanging government (no majority), we are completely screwed.

If Trump comes, there is no additional pressure on taxes, but more money will be printed to get country back.

If Biden comes, additional pressure on Corp taxes, will further screw-up economy. More money must be printed (no way to get out)

Uncertainty continues until Jan 20, 2021.

Either way, recession is in progress,

For many months already.

Don’t make money, corp taxes are irrelevant. Tech companies that make money, hardly pay taxes. Doubt economy would be screwed.

He would continue to mess with many tech companies, we-the tech investors-are screwed.

This is kind of short sighted thinking. Here is the high level explanation.

Don’t make money, corp taxes are irrelevant. => Assuming your argument is valid either corp tax is reduced or increased, corporate are not making money or not paying money to US government,

Scenario 1: Corp tax 100% (Biden) on income (hypothetically).

How they can avoid paying money to government?
Income = revenue - expenses = 0
Companies will be registered at Cayman Islands, sale at USA ($100) - cost ($100 pay to Cayman island company).

In short, Cayman island company benefits, employs people (jobs), and pay no tax to USG.

No investor is ready to bring any money to USA to form a company. Without companies in USA, how people earn money? USA will only have sales/marketing and no manufacturing possible.

Scenario 2: Corp tax is zero (Trump) on income (hypothetically).

Whole world investors bring the money to USA as this tax haven and form companies, manufactures, sales…everything in USA. Plenty of job opportunities.

This is just an example to show how tax reduction encourages investors/companies to bring money to USA and how tax increase discourages/companies to get out of USA.

Alibaba planned to invest Billions when Corp tax (equal to tariff for manufacturing) is reduced, but walked out when tariffs (equal to taxes for imports) are added !

What? Extreme cases are ignored in analysis, we know won’t happen and hence is worthless. Also, in-between can be very different from both extremes - you are not trying to extrapolate :scream:, right? Draw a straight line connecting both extremes? Impact of any rates can be deduced from that straight line? Btw, comments are based on increasing tax from 21% to 28%, change not that big for most tech (actually I meant software) companies.

Doubt that is the reason.

Extreme cases are shown to show marked difference in system. They work even for lower percentages, but it has long term impact.

In US every business is making profit with 2%-20% margin level, they make profit with volume, but profit margin is slim with lot of overhead.

21% to 28% is a major impact for companies negative side

35% to 21% is a major boost for companies in USA. Since the day copr tax reduced, you have seen how it boomed until 2019 end where covid-impact made this big blow.

It is true by intention, but later revoked by tariff 25%. Rollback your period to Dec 27, 2017 Corp tax change.

China Corp tax is 25%, if USA is 21% easy to take advantage of tax difference, but later nullified with tariff increase.

Still Germany (15) and Ireland (12.5%) are lower than USA.

When Corp taxes are increased, AAPL will go back Ireland , amazon to Germany…etc all big companies move out of USA. This is the way they can pay lower taxes to US government.

I assume that’s not what you meant, but need to clarify,

Taxes do not come out of margin. so raising taxes by 7% doesn’t mean your margin drops by 7%

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The more lockdowns. More people are pushed towards digital economy. whole Europe will be competing with Megacap.


EUROPE READY TO IMPOSE DIGITAL SERVICES TAX, TRADE CHIEF SAYS: The European Commission remains ready to propose an EU-wide tax on digital companies, absent an international agreement being negotiated at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis told POLITICO Europe.

Besides a desire to make globe-trotting tech firms pay their fair share, Dombrovskis said the EU is mindful of member countries — such as France — going it alone.

“We stand ready to come forward with a digital taxation proposal at the EU level, because we would like to avoid the fragmentation of the single market if different member states now start introducing different digital taxes,” he said.

U.S. has no right to interfere: Asked about France’s digital tax, the new EU trade chief said Brussels would not accept U.S. retaliation.

"The EU’s position on this has been clear: Taxation is a sovereign right of countries and so we are not accepting that third countries are interfering with taxation rights of the member states, especially if those are done in a horizontal way not addressed to any particular country,” he said.

Still thinking in a straight line. Take note, not referring to a snapshot of a single company.

You are right.

With market internalization, companies - esp big corps - are taking advantage of country level corp taxes, mfring cost etc.

They show lowest profit margin to pay lower corp taxes. This is the way AAPL was keeping 200B in ireland using Corp taxes difference.

If corp taxes increased, many companies move the manufacturing outside.
If corp taxes decreases, close those overhead companies and bring to USA.

There is some work involved with complex tax law, everything done at soft copy level, hire CPA, hire Lawyer to draft international tax agreement, implement few tax software’s to show the proper records (Invoices, settlement, taxes to different countries)

As I said previously, tax reduction or increase impact are long term, can not be easily realized immediately.

You think this way:

If personal taxes are reduced in USA by 15% to every individuals, will it help you? (we all like it)

It saves extra money and those you invest or spend locally, improves the economy.

If personal taxes are increased in USA by 15% to every individuals, will it help you? (we all hate this?)

It cuts your savings and does not improve the economy.

Same thing you apply to corporate as Corps are independent entity (for tax purposes equally like human with tax-id)

USA is business economy and all corporates are backbone of US economy.

So to be the devil’s advocate, what would happen if Trump loses but refuses to accept the results, claiming somehow he was cheated out of the election. he has threatened to do this.

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