Outperforming Growth: 5 Top Picks

Outperforming Growth: 5 Top Picks

The long overlooked corner of the broad stock market — value investing — has started to gain momentum lately amid escalating trade tensions and an aging bull market.

The outperformance came mainly from disappointing earnings from some of the high-profile tech companies, including Facebook FB, Netflix NFLX and Twitter TWTR, that took a toll on the growth stocks. Additionally, rising U.S. debt and deficits combined with escalating trade tensions are weighing on economic growth, raising the appeal for value stocks amid improving fundamentals.

Growth investing dominated since 2009, time for value investing?

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How much are those growth names up YTD? They are focusing on the last month and ignoring the larger trend.

Everybody claims they are value investors. What does value investing mean anyway?

From the article:

Turtle Beach Corporation HEAR

This company provides various gaming headset solutions to various platforms, including video game and entertainment consoles, handheld consoles, personal computers, and mobile and tablet devices under the Turtle Beach brand. With a market cap of $441.4 million, the company has an estimated earnings growth rate of 625% for this year. It belongs to a top-ranked Zacks industry (top 22%).

HEAR is a value play? WOT? How come it only mentions the earnings growth rate in the article? 625%?

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The article implies everybody claims to be growth investors.

Show me a few who claim to be growth investors. I have not seen a single one on SA. The most anyone goes is to say they are investing in both.

Any billionaires can sing song.

Value investing means you should invest in Aapl and not the FANGs.

The issue is identifying the stock, ahead of the game and at right price !

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What they call as value is like buying a home below its appraisal value. Same way, Hedge Funds and other experts calculate the value of a company and buy them. They analyze the company various ways and find out what is its current worth (just like appraisal - if they sell the company now) and derive at share price.

There are two difference ideas.

One Efficient market theory, i.e. market corrects itself by its value.
Another - Efficient market theory - is market, at times, skewed and not aligned its value.

It is not about blind buying, but buying a stock when it is below its value. This is where I admire WB after he purchased BAC for $5, AAPL at $99 and TEVA at $14.5

Possible from divorced couple, people who didn’t monitor the market and those in financial crisis :frowning_with_open_mouth:

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Then it comes full circle: what is the appraised value of AAPL? FB? AMZN?

WB says AAPL is cheap, AMZN is expensive and has no comment on FB. Don’t try to be cheeky, you well know how intrinsic value is computed. It depends on your assumed no risk interest rate, net cash flow over at least 10 years…

So whatever WB says is the final truth?

Well he did say he regretted not buying AMZN and GOOG.

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Like appraisal needs analysis of various facts, company valuation needs lot of analysis. Like real estate no two appraisals match the same, no two analysts come up with same values. Since most of them predict what the company likely produce next 5 or 10 years, valuation may vary easily.

Finbox.io has various models, this is one of them. Simple and easy reference is here https://finbox.io/AAPL/models/dcf-growth-exit-5yr

Very complex, but really good one from Martin Shkreli. Note, this guy is shrewd on the wrong side, now jailed (IIRC). This video is one hour, he teaches how to value netflix. https://youtu.be/HTM05cVOEDY

Books, Stephen Penman is the best Amazon.com

Whatever they do are just guidance for us as the ultimate trustworthy person we can see in the mirror !

BTW: There is no short cut, as this is pure appraisal of a company like AAPL, FB and AMZN

This is what WB or Seth Klarmann or any other fund managers do before they buy/sell equities. Their own analysis are confidential and is not available for outside world.

That’s his projection from March 2016. He said for the stock to go to $300 Netflix’s user penetration needs to be 50%, so it’s pretty nigh impossible. Fast forward to today NFLX is trading at $364.

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What is the current user penetration ?

Over 60%. And they also raised subscription fees.

So he was correct in his assessment wrt share price vs penetration. He underestimated how deep NFLX can penetrate :grinning:

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