My Sac partner owns more than 2500 apartments. .He said that 3500 condos are comng on the market in SF in the next two years…they alone could create a top…Lets use SF as the indicator. …a big liquid market…Condos will be hit the hardest…The new ones will force price reductions in the old ones…
It is not an affordability issue for the buyers who write offers. 90% of the buyers could have easily paid a LOT more, real world examples…
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pre-approval letter for purchase price up to $2.4m, $800k down payment available… yet, not willing to offer more than $1.9m
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proof of funds of $3.5m, yet not willing to offer more than $2m (smaller house with same schools sold 3 months earlier for more than $2m)
I can only think of 1 or 2 cases where the buyers agent stated that they cannot afford to pay more.
However, affordability is a factor… as I said previously… price segment $1.6m to $2.4m (Sunnyvale/ Cupertino) used to get 10 offers, now it is 3 and that’s if you price below recent comps. Could be 0 or 1 offers if you are close to recent comps.
I observe that smaller/ older houses, less desirable neighborhoods - as of April - still got more offers (price range $1.0m - $1.5m). As the $2m segment is selling $150k lower than in December, this is putting pressure on the lower valued segment.
This has been going on since January 2016… right now.
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Ultra High end may have peaked last May/April 2015 when the Shanghai peaked…and the Silicon Valley stock index peaked. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BSVX:IND
SF and PA ultra high end peaking now, Condos in SF early next year…Fortress RBA city shfs mid range…next year?..more tied to salaries than stocks…exburbs…next two years…raisng min wage and high BA rents driving their prices up…
Here is an interesting read from the mercury news. It about people with six figure incomes moving out because they can’t afford the high cost of living in the bay area. Apparently more people are moving out than moving in.
OK! I am excited! 
So an RE sale is coming my way???
Is it gonna be a 10% sale? Or 20%?
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Yup. Totally get it.
But I wouldn’t mind a thunderstorm. I do miss them. ““There’s a huge thunderstorm overhead,” Eaton said while talking to a reporter. “Got to get used to that, I guess.””
In 1989, the middle class accounted for 56 percent of all households in Silicon Valley, but by 2013, that share had slipped to 45.7 percent, the study found.
“The region’s middle class has shrunk, while the numbers of lower-income and higher-income households has grown,” the report stated. Silicon Valley, for the purposes of the study, consists of Santa Clara County, San Mateo County and San Francisco.
Lower-income residents accounted for 30.3 percent of Silicon Valley’s households in 1989, and that number grew to 34.8 percent in 2013. Upper-income residents had 13.7 percent of the share of households in 1989, and that figure swelled to 19.5 percent in 2013…
This is why Trump says the media lies…Instead of celebrating the fact that the BA is booming and experienced our largest wealth creation in history…With a fifty percent in crease in upper income households, the writers dwell on the 11% increase in lower income households…Of course the lower income people didnt lose income, their rents just went up…unless they had rent control…If the pols had allowed more housing this wouldnt have happened…dony blame corporations or the rich…blame city hall…
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I’m trying to understand the difference between what CoreData is reporting vs what some members are observing during their transactions.
Comments?
I’m not sure why CoreData is different but these market updates are interesting (http://www.siliconvalleyandbeyond.com/blog/feed/). Not sure if anyone else reads them…
Thanks for the link.The difference to your link seems to be, Corelogic Data aggregates the areas further up, for e.g. there is no Sunnyvale but there is Santa Clara.
The middle class thing is true nationally too:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-class-went-where-ll-000000086.html
I see a lot of slowdown in northbay around my area. Although sold price still over asking but inventory starting to stack up not getting sold. Price jump way too fast in the last few months from november to april. Seeing some pull backs now especially a lot of uncertainty in the market
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I don’t think it is ever useful to look at prices from different months. April to December could be a december dip. I’d much prefer April 2015 to April 2016. And for good measure take April/May and average them.
I use this data to visualize overall:
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Palo_Alto-California/market-trends/
Did the Campbell realtor join this forum? Anyone familiar with WSJ and West Campbell neighborhood?
Good, he is here.
[Door latches shut] “Now we can begin to take over the world!” BWAHAHAHAHAHAH
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Yes. Fewer offers and empty open houses. That is typical as there are more homes on the market fewer people are qualified. These 800K or under were sold less than 450K not long ago, People all remember the prices.
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Key is jobs retention. Most Apple employees would like to buy. Their job security is non-existent. Just last few months there are hardly any professionals are getting hired into Silicon Valley as rentals are not filled like 2015.
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A friend is sending me his 2000 sf newer modern home listing in Rancho Riconada across from Apple 2 campus marked at 1.98M. If you want me to show it you need 270K income min (BASE, BONUS does not count toward Mortgage and pay 120K a year on PITI. With two income wagers working at Apple I doubt they can qualify.
Sam Shueh Realtor
Campbell, CA
All my valuation are posted on Active Rain.
here is the thread on West Silicon Valley:
http://actvra.in/4SFS
Sam Shueh Realtor
Realty One Group
Campbell, CA