Predictions for Sunnyvale, Cupertino

Homestead High School Zone
7 days later, 12 homes available for sale, 0 new and 12 previous.
So (17-12) = 5 out of previous 17 available are sold or delisted over the last 7 days.
Inventory decreases to 12 (last week is 17) from the range 25-28.

1082 Plymouth Dr 3/1/1 1154/6000 $1.71M May 03, 2017
1059 Plymouth Dr 5/2/1 1435/6000 $1.78M Oct 12, 2017
1062 Plymouth Dr 2/1/1 0848/6034 $2.00M Feb 20, 2018
1074 Plymouth Dr 3/2/1 1680/6000 $2.21M Mar 29, 2018
1118 Plymouth Dr 3/1.75/1 1433/6206 $1.918M Jun 22, 2018
1137 Plymouth Dr 4/3.5/1 2300/6000 $2.90M Jul 31, 2018

Too close to 85?

For that distance, I have seen going closer to 2M if not more. The only thing I can think is either itā€™s teaser asking price and seller is still waiting for higher price. Or have huge problem like foundation.

I went to their open house. They expanded the house in a very weird way that thereā€™s a hallway (to garage door) between refrigerator and kitchen sync. And they knocked down all the walls in the living area that now feels like a big loft.

Plus a T junction and north facing. The neighborhood is ok, but had enough bad traits that push out buyers - last time I was there, the agent was giving out sandwiches from Panera bread (yikes). Doesnt actually tell that they are catering to top buyers.

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Let me just say this: San Jose is the new Santa Clara, Santa Clara is the new Sunnyvale, Sunnyvale is the new Mountain View, Mountain View is the new Los Altos and well, you knowā€¦

Everything has shifted up. As practically born and raised in the bay, Sunnyvale and Santa Clara were the most mediocre of places. Heck, drive there today and you can see that certain parts of these cities look war torn. Itā€™s ridiculous that some of these houses, or rather most are over the big $1M mark.

Also, South Sunnyvale and South West Sunnvale, (pretty much anything that borders Los Altos and Mountain View commands a $700k premium).

Iā€™d say that $2M is the new normal. And the hell do you get for $2M? Still looks like a shack.

I did an in depth write up that talks about if 2019 is the year to buy in the bay or not.

Bay Area Guy

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Depends on when you start. Isnā€™t SV started in Santa Clara?

If you want to buy you will have expand your horizons. The exburbs have the lowest prices and have changed a lot in 35 years. Salinas, Stockton, Lathropā€¦ Mountain House. Closer in ā€¦ Pacifica, Hayward and East San Jose still relatively affordable.

Even hot plymouth dr is not spared the downturn if bought in mid 2018.

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Sunnyvale 94087 high end prices are going up steadily. Check out these 2 recently sold homes which went for mid to upper $3Ms.

The median price in 94087 for SFHs sold in the past month has exceeded $2.6M. Only 1 home sold for less than $2M - for $1.92M on a busy street.

Wonder if a 94087 SFH will breach $4M next year? And nothing will sell below $2M?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/1381-Arleen-Ave-94087/home/1493184?2093706699=no_custom_share_sheet&1280460695=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/850-Cathedral-Dr-94087/home/1860022?2093706699=no_custom_share_sheet&1280460695=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet

Definitely not next year. Bay Area is stocks economy, wait and see the fun next year !

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Thatā€™s not such a bad thing if home prices fall or stabilize after a year in which they increased 30%. Maybe 94087 median SFH price will reach $3M in 2024 instead of 2022.

Same for stocks. If stock prices fall, itā€™s good for those of us who are dollar cost averaging into the stock market via our 401ks etc. I anyway get no RSUs or options from my company, just a salary that goes up by 2-3% per yearā€¦

Agree with 1st sentence. Do you see a prolonged recession till next year?

Check out this house - seller appears at first glance to have made a neat $950k profit (or 50%) in 3 years:
Bought in June 2018: $1.85M
Sold in July 2021: $2.8M

June 2018 was the peak of the last pre-COVID RE cycle. I donā€™t think prices in Sunnyvale have gone up by 50% compared to the peak of the last cycle in 2018.

The listing advertises that the house was recently expanded and remodeled - sellers probably added 400-500 sq ft.

I wonder what fraction of the 950k higher sales price is attributable to intrinsic appreciation of the land, and what fraction can be attributed to the expansion/remodel? How much would such an expansion cost?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/1071-Manhattan-Ct-94087/home/1175024?2093706699=no_custom_share_sheet&1280460695=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet

You seem to have a beat on 94087. What would an entry level 1262 sqft on 1/4 acre cost in this neighborhood cost?

Most likely the bulk of the appreciation is from the land. When investing you want to make money at every turn ā€“ on the purchase, on the market, on the rehab, and of course on the sale.

What can an 400 addition + remodel be done for? Some people will say 150-200k and others will tell you double the cost. Of course if you can get it done for 150-200k you will already know this and you likely get paid to do this. So, if you are asking the question the answer is that it costs more than you think.

Well said. Other way to say. Buy at profit.

This is a fixer upper on a very busy road. Why did it sell for $2.7M? Seems like buyer overpaid??

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7556-Bollinger-Rd-95014/home/1258581?2093706699=no_custom_share_sheet&1280460695=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet

This part of Bollinger is not busy. Looks like a good house, cosmetic fixes required.

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Overall looks like 700 to 800K higher than list price in Cupertino area. Wonder what caused this sudden rise. Have a feeling that things are going to slow down soon.

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Or overpaying.

Already slowing in Austin.